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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 10:30 am

There will be a strong cold front attached to a saskatchewan screamer push through around Jan 2nd and I do think it will have post frontal snow on the westside of the cold front and rain on the front side as I alluded to on my blog about a week ago...this is whats called a snow squall line.



Those snow squall lines are rare but do occur with clippers that are strong enough. The last one I remember was the 2009/2010 superclipper that had linear snow attached to the backside of the cold front and linear rain on the front side of the cold front. After this snow and cold front moves out expect brutally cold temps as some places will get into the single digits especially the higher elevations

The true Arctic Outbreak will take hold around JAN3 and my model of choice is the CMC at this point it has been the most consistent lately and I will show the graphics of this outbreak via the CMC

0zCMC surface temps 30's in South Florida yikes



CMC 850mb temps




Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-21, 1:28 pm; edited 6 times in total

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 10:33 am

Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-29, 10:39 am

Toot, I believe that the super clipper you are referring to is the Valentines Day snow which I believe was back in 2010. I believe that was on 2/14/10 and 2/15/10 if I'm correct.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 10:40 am

Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?

I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 10:41 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?

I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise
Well thats no good, Im as south as it gets in Middle Tennessee lol.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-29, 10:50 am

Adam2014 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Will Middle Tennessee get Post Frontal snow?

I would think so Adam but the further north the better you will do snow-wise
Well thats no good, Im as south as it gets in Middle Tennessee lol.

lolz... low and dry adam, low and dry. ;p

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 10:55 am

Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-29, 11:27 am

Adam2014 wrote:Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.

And as of lately, Low Pressure systems have not been my friend either lol... so join the party! haha pffft

jk

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 11:31 am

Tom23 wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:Clippers have NEVER been my friend lol.

And as of lately, Low Pressure systems have not been my friend either lol... so join the party! haha pffft

jk
Yeah lol.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-29, 12:00 pm

Canadian - can't read it well, but its deep and wet


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 12:05 pm

jmundie wrote:Canadian - can't read it well, but its deep and wet

I will have what the canadian is showing. smartass

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 12:07 pm

Yeah those maps from CMC themselve pretty much suck

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-29, 12:10 pm

The words 'deep' and 'wet' sound yummy.. wash

LOL

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-29, 12:14 pm

You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-29, 12:16 pm

jmundie wrote:You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?
Actually its some guy sitting on a washermachine lol.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-29, 12:17 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
jmundie wrote:You would Tom. I assume that's a female smiley above?
Actually its some guy sitting on a washermachine lol.

Actually the word that would be used here is... 'orgasm'... LOLz...

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-29, 12:18 pm

The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 12:21 pm

snowdog wrote:The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.

I dont know what you're looking at but the CMC has a small snowstorm thickness and 850's are supportive add Jan climo and you have a snowstorm....no need to look at soundings and precip type at this point..it will change every run



The CMC has been very consistent with this setup and is my guidance choice as of right now as it seems to make more since with secondary development

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-29, 1:17 pm

Adam - its a girl. She's using the washing machine to, um, pleasure herself.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-29, 1:34 pm

The canadian looks like its wanting to cut off a portion of the energy over tennessee. That would be excellent for all of us.

Euro is dry, except maybe a good upslope event for the mountains betwen 96-120.

We're hanging our hats on the Canadian folks...

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 1:40 pm

There is hints in the 12z ensembles of forming a secondary surface low and the CMC also tries to get this going in the coastal plains of NC/SC/GA... if they do it could be a signifigant winter storm in mid/east TN come Jan 2-4. Still a ways out but just giving my two cents on 12z models

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-29, 1:50 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
snowdog wrote:The hourly precip type map for the CMC says no go except for those around the plateau and mountains may see a little snow before the precip ends. Plenty wet but cold air chasing moisture.

I dont know what you're looking at but the CMC has a small snowstorm thickness and 850's are supportive add Jan climo and you have a snowstorm....no need to look at soundings and precip type at this point..it will change every run

If you have a warm surface layer to overcome, which we will have in spades, then it will take a reasonable amount of time to cool the surface to near or below freezing to support frozen precip. I have no reason to think the CMC precip type map is wrong at this point. 9 times out of 10 here in middle-TN it is usually cold air chasing moisture in these type set-ups. That is climo for this area. Unless we pop a surface low in Bama, then that changes things.



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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 1:55 pm

snowdog wrote:
If you have a warm surface layer to overcome, which we will have in spades, then it will take a reasonable amount of time to cool the surface to near or below freezing to support frozen precip. I have no reason to think the CMC precip type map is wrong at this point. 9 times out of 10 here in middle-TN it is usually cold air chasing moisture in these type set-ups. That is climo for this area. Unless we pop a surface low in Bama, then that changes things.


At this point I wouldnt pay any attention to precip type right now you have favorable 850s and thickness values which 99% of the time in JAN means snow at this range

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 1:58 pm

but heres the next frame of that image


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-29, 2:50 pm


As for this snow potential, I believe a good bit of East Tennessee will see snow flurries/snow showers. The better you do in upslope the better your shot at seeing them.

MRX isn't buying into it yet, but JKL is, they have 30 percent chance snow showers over most of their area Sunday night and Monday. MRX merely has flurries for Mt LeConte.

JKL points out that the air mass will be squeezing out all available moisture. I agree with them, have saw it too many times in this same situation to believe the MRX take of nothing falling at all outside of the highest Smokies areas.


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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