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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 2:19 pm

Reb wrote:what happened in 85 toot? meanwhile MRX has me at 18 monday night with 20 percent pops on snow

Knoxville set their all time rcord low temp something like 25 below zero and there were winter storms in J, F, and march....but west TN did better than east but it was still a great winter here......BTW 85 was one of the analogs I used in my winter forecast evl

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 2:22 pm

Here is my snowy forecast from MRX point and click


Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 4am. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 13.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny and blustery, with a high near 26.

I wonder if Mundie still thinks im full of shit about it snowing? evl


Im telling ALL you folks in east TN its gonna snow..but how much or how long is yet to be determined...I could possibly see light accums in the Northern valley now with HUGRE amounts in the mountains....Models will not pick up on this type of an event til really late or not at all unti we get to RUC time....This sytem holds good potential in east TN


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-31, 2:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-31, 2:25 pm

i wish i was in cocke county!! i might end up heading to the mountains again rock on

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 2:30 pm

Reb wrote:i wish i was in cocke county!! i might end up heading to the mountains again rock on

ALL you folks in east TN is gonna see snow falling..but how much or how long is yet to be determined...I could possibly see light accums in the Northern valley now with HUGE amounts in the mountains....Models will not pick up on this type of an event til really late or not at all unti we get to RUC time....This sytem holds good potential in east TN

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 2:38 pm

From JKL just north of MRX popcorn

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1251 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE OUR FIRST TRUE TASTE OF WINTER...JUST
IN TIME FOR THE NEW YEAR ON MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL HEAD INTO KENTUCKY ACCOMPANYING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND FED BY ATLANTIC FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH QUEBE
C. [/b]UPSLOPE...NORTHWEST...WINDS
FOLLOW THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE PCPN/SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...ANTICIPATE THE PCPN TO FALL
AS ALL SNOW AND ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A BIT FOR MOST OF THE CWA
...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE MORE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

Ive been saying all along that the cod front (boundary is being modeled too dry)...but some people thought I was wishcasting... its called pattern recognition cheers

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-31, 3:14 pm

The initial front is going to be dry. That's office is talking about secondary moisture from the second impulse. It appears to me to be limited to the mountains, and there will only be accumulations in upslope favored areas.

I highly doubt anywhere west of I81 sees any accumulation. The angle of the winds pulling moisture off the lakes isn't right to give middle tenn or even the plateau snow.

And to be fair, you had said the initial frontal passage on Sunday would be wet, like te CMC and FIM were showing a few days ago. That's clearly not going to happen.


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-31, 3:28 pm

Also - I do like the trend of the first wave of this storm digging further and becoming more separated from the big cold shot. It doesn't have to dig much further before it really could pop a surface low.

And re: '85 .... We haven't even seen anything modeled like that. There are some hints of an arctic outbreak in the extended, but you'd need the -30 850s over the Midwest to see anything like '85

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 3:29 pm

Im not going to argue with you right now because im on the phone with NET 10 customer service after waiting for 2 hrs on hold...but i'll get back to you mundie...anyways the title of the thread describes what I think will happen in east TN

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-31, 3:34 pm

I'll take even one week of arctic outbreak over the kind of weather we've been seeing recently lol... heck, I'd even take an inch of snow one day, melt the next over this crapshoot. Beggers cannot be picky at all... haha.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-31, 3:40 pm

Yeah for lake effect snow in Middle Tennessee, we need the winds to come straight out of the north. Not going to happen here.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 3:57 pm

jmundie wrote:

And re: '85 .... We haven't even seen anything modeled like that. There are some hints of an arctic outbreak in the extended, but you'd need the -30 850s over the Midwest to see anything like '85
Come on mr literal they're not exactly alike but the simularities are there


The current arctic outbreak looks alot like 85 of course its not as strong and its not exactly alike but then again no two patterns will ever be exactly alike.

85

12z euro


Also the indices in November and December were VERY smilar...so yeah 85 is a decent analog so far


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-31, 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 4:01 pm

I think the Tri Cities area has the best chance at seeing some accums as far as unelevated places with the next storm

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-31, 4:33 pm

They are similar in that they are both and eastern arctic outbreaks.... But you're talking about a 15 degree C different (almost 30 deg F) in temps, lowers much much stronger system at h5.

Again - we can start making 85 comparisons when the -30s C at 850 start showing up in the conus.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-31, 4:37 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Starting to look like a 1985 repeat yikes

But there is no snow cover in the north/northwest. whistle

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 4:48 pm

jmundie wrote:They are similar in that they are both and eastern arctic outbreaks.... But you're talking about a 15 degree C different (almost 30 deg F) in temps, lowers much much stronger system at h5.

Again - we can start making 85 comparisons when the -30s C at 850 start showing up in the conus.

snowdog wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Starting to look like a 1985 repeat yikes

But there is no snow cover in the north/northwest. whistle

Im not just talking about one event

When I compared this winter to 85 I was talking about how the Fall and early winter pattern was warm with positive values in the high lattitude northern hemispheric oscillations. Those same conditions existed this fall and early winter. Now that we are entering January the Northern hemispheric 500mb longwave pattern plus the indices seem to be heading into a very similar situation to that of January 1985 pattern.

Just an observation that has merit in the world of Analogs Wink

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-31, 4:53 pm

snowdog wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Starting to look like a 1985 repeat yikes

But there is no snow cover in the north/northwest. whistle
yeah, thats what i was pointing out last week snowdog... lack of snow cover has to be some concerne here...there is a chance the lake effect machine may get going next week around the lakes, that may help to some degree... we need a nice layer in the midwest from a big lakes cutter, just simply hasnt been enough cold air thus far in the game to produce that... i tell you, if we see another 85 repeat, i will run around the house naked in the first snow in that pattern rock on thats how happy i would be Very Happy

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 4:54 pm

They will see plenty of snowcover in the next two weeks..Im really not worried about that

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-31, 4:55 pm

MRX backed me off to flurries for this one. Not really surprising. I was hoping for .5 inches or so but looks like I'm not likely to get it.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-31, 4:57 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
jmundie wrote:They are similar in that they are both and eastern arctic outbreaks.... But you're talking about a 15 degree C different (almost 30 deg F) in temps, lowers much much stronger system at h5.

Again - we can start making 85 comparisons when the -30s C at 850 start showing up in the conus.

snowdog wrote:

But there is no snow cover in the north/northwest. whistle

Im not just talking about one event

When I compared this winter to 85 I was talking about how the Fall and early winter pattern was warm with positive values in the high lattitude northern hemispheric oscillations. Those same conditions existed this fall and early winter. Now that we are entering January the Northern hemispheric 500mb longwave pattern plus the indices seem to be heading into a very similar situation to that of January 1985 pattern.

Just an observation that has merit in the world of Analogs Wink

I was being facetious about the snow cover to the north/northwest. I made a post a few days ago about why it doesn't really matter about the lack of snow cover to the north/northwest in getting arctic air in here.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 5:00 pm

lol lmao

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-31, 5:11 pm

Snow cover to our North and NW makes a decent difference in our air masses and how much they warm as the cross the country from Southern Canada.

You can get very cold without it, but you won't see true deep freeze type air without it. And by that I mean 0 to below 0 type temps.

Highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s aren't that exceptional as compared to some of the great frigid air masses we've saw with deep snow cover to our NW.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 5:22 pm

Oh I know its very important John but I also know it will probably fill in quite well in the next two weeks

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-31, 5:25 pm

John1122 wrote:Snow cover to our North and NW makes a decent difference in our air masses and how much they warm as the cross the country from Southern Canada.

You can get very cold without it, but you won't see true deep freeze type air without it. And by that I mean 0 to below 0 type temps.

Highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s aren't that exceptional as compared to some of the great frigid air masses we've saw with deep snow cover to our NW.

I'm not worried about getting that cold. A good 28 to 30 degrees with some over running moisture works for me just fine.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-31, 5:26 pm

I like some of accuwx's graphics


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-31, 5:28 pm

the winter of 85, featured the first snow was january 4th. 8 to 10 inches across west tn. folowed by fidgid temps . second snow was on january 11 th. good swath of 6 inches across west tn. thir snow was january 19th to 20th. 6 to 8 inches followed by the coldest air nashville and memphis most of tennessee pratically had saw, ohx broke record cold with a negative 12 to 14 i think.. correct me if im wrong. on february 3rd. another good 7 inches fell across west tn. and it seems like we wounded with another 3 inches in mid february 85... i remember that winter really well, cause i worked in the contruction field outside, hell i was almost tired of snow and cold that winter... what a hell of a winter after a torchy novemeber ands december 84.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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