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Toot (6644)
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Adam2014 (1424)
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tennessee storm09 (1304)
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John1122 (885)
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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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Mrgolf
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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Empty Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Stovepipe 2012-01-01, 7:07 pm

Wow, glad to hear snow squalls being mentioned.

popcorn
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Post by Toot 2012-01-01, 7:09 pm

Skillsweather wrote:If that is correct then I could even see some snow in the air? Correct?

If its correct.. yes you would
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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-01, 10:39 pm

I like the way that radar looks lol.
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Post by Toot 2012-01-01, 10:45 pm

Forecast and call map Very Happy

A vigorous upper level disturbance will swoop thru the region on monday and bring a period of snow to the tennessee valley. I expect the snow to accumulate up to 6 inches in the highest elevations of east TN. The plateau counties and the northern valley could also see an inch or two...while most of the valley could see a dusting but I wouldnt rule out a little more than that due to the expected intensity of some of the snow showers and the long duration of the event. These snow showers will be accompanied by strong NW winds that will usher in the coldest air of the season...Glad to see the prospect of some real winter weather finally smartass



Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 24ay49z
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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-01, 10:50 pm

Nice looking map Toot, I will be satisfied and totally suprised if I see snow tommrow. Heck I will be suprised if I see a cloud deck. Sad
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Post by Reb 2012-01-01, 10:51 pm

nice map toot, never seen you do one that included the northern states
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Post by Toot 2012-01-01, 10:54 pm

Thanks yall
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Post by Math/Met 2012-01-01, 11:03 pm

Just something to look at...

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Cref_q4sfc_f18
Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Acsnw_q4sfc_f18

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Post by Reb 2012-01-01, 11:11 pm

awesome math mat..thanks for that.
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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 7:27 am

East Tennessee is going to have fun today, makes me jealous.
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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 8:46 am

On second thought, I think I will see some snow showers today. The fetch is absolutley huge today. This really reminds me of the December storm last year.
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Post by jmundie 2012-01-02, 8:56 am

Adam2014 wrote:On second thought, I think I will see some snow showers today. The fetch is absolutley huge today. This really reminds me of the December storm last year.

You might Adam, though the favored areas in NE mid tenn will obviously do the best.

I think Toot and I both missed something on this storm. The models were originally merging two pieces of energy before it got to the mid south. In the last 24 hours, there was a much larger separation between the two pieces. The second piece of energy appears to be wrapping up a bit more with each run, and there may be, rather than a strictly NW flow type thing, an actual decent band of snow that comes through with the next piece of energy seen here on the 6z NAM

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Nam_namer_015_500_vort_ht

The HRRR absolutely blows things up... though it has a tendency to overdo snow in most cases.

This is from the 10Z run

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Acsnw_sfc_f15

and the regular RUC has what appears to be a nice blob of snow coming through NW middle around 3 PM


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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 9:02 am

I picked that up on the RUC also, kinda looks like a band coming in after noon. The Northeastern part of the plateua could do very well Mundie.

It sure will be interesting to see what transpires today, alot of fetch from the lakes already. Now that the sun is up we can get some convection going.
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Post by jmundie 2012-01-02, 9:06 am

And temps should fall pretty quickly as the second piece of energy comes through. OHX has us warming to 39 today.... not sure I buy that, but I guess it depends on the timing of the second push of cold. OHX reporting 33 right now... but I'm still at 30-31 at my house in downtown, which is typically warmer.

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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 9:13 am

jmundie wrote:And temps should fall pretty quickly as the second piece of energy comes through. OHX has us warming to 39 today.... not sure I buy that, but I guess it depends on the timing of the second push of cold. OHX reporting 33 right now... but I'm still at 30-31 at my house in downtown, which is typically warmer.
OHX has me getting to 42, I am sitting at 32 right now.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-01-02, 9:19 am

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 206zm90
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-01-02, 9:24 am

the 12z nam is dry except for far northeast tn, some light snow there.

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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 9:31 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 12z nam is dry except for far northeast tn, some light snow there.
I wouldn't believe that because of the radar we are seeing right now. Alot of snow showers out there.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-01-02, 11:34 am

Some obs that were posted at American:

Headed back to clt from the inlaws so I thought id check in. Currently 20 miles north of Hopkinsville, KY and have been getting on and off heavy snow showers with a temp of 28. The artic air is squeezing out every bit of moisture in the air which bolds well for the mountains as this S/W rotates through. Snow started almost as soon as the clouds moved in so you guys can watch the cloud line to get an idea of when the snow should start. Also note that NO snow was forecasted for this region this morning. Ill check back in later with more obs.
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Post by Toot 2012-01-02, 11:39 am

Yep its fixing to be fun times here today and im off work to track everything rock on

Its starting to knock on Tennesse's door right now

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Vis_east_anim
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Post by Toot 2012-01-02, 12:35 pm

Snow is moving into northern areas of TN now and is expected off an on all day and night...some ares are bound to get accumulating snow with surface temps in full cooperation..I think MRX needs at least an advisory in the northern counties and plateau area but thats just my opinion
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Post by Reb 2012-01-02, 1:01 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Some obs that were posted at American:

Headed back to clt from the inlaws so I thought id check in. Currently 20 miles north of Hopkinsville, KY and have been getting on and off heavy snow showers with a temp of 28. The artic air is squeezing out every bit of moisture in the air which bolds well for the mountains as this S/W rotates through. Snow started almost as soon as the clouds moved in so you guys can watch the cloud line to get an idea of when the snow should start. Also note that NO snow was forecasted for this region this morning. Ill check back in later with more obs.
Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 Tumblr_lst1xhl2Sm1qaxo8xo1_250
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Post by Math/Met 2012-01-02, 1:02 pm

With the strong cold air advection aloft, the steep lapse rates are starting to give the snow showers in Eastern Kentucky a convective look.

Here is a skew-t from the RUC for East Tennessee for this evening. Notice how steep the lapse rates are in the lower levels. This suggests the potential is there for some pretty impressive snow bands for those who are fortunate enough to be under them.

Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming - Page 8 RUC_255_2012010216_F07_36.0000N_83.0000W

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Post by Toot 2012-01-02, 1:08 pm

Yeah I was noticing the convective look...but didnt know the lapse rates were causing that M/M ...thanks for the explanation Very Happy

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Post by Adam2014 2012-01-02, 1:13 pm

Well no snow for me today, good luck to you guys in East Tennessee. Is it snowing yet there?
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