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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-29, 5:11 pm

precip is lacking, not buying us getting snow. but cold looks legit

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 5:12 pm

John1122 wrote:
As for this snow potential, I believe a good bit of East Tennessee will see snow flurries/snow showers. The better you do in upslope the better your shot at seeing them.



Agree john but I would not rule out an inch in the northern and central valley areas

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 5:13 pm

Reb wrote:precip is lacking, not buying us getting snow. but cold looks legit

Precip is not lacking in the ensembles and cmc

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-29, 10:31 pm


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-29, 10:31 pm

Reb wrote:

Fail.

We need the big version buddy.
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 10:35 pm

I actually like the small version since people cant seem to delete the same image from their quoted post burn

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-29, 10:40 pm

i like the double trailer myself

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-29, 10:41 pm

I'll gladly quote the proper version if Reb logs on and posts it! Perhaps this is foreshadowing for what the 00z is telling?
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 10:42 pm

New Year Might Start off With a BANG


All models show the northern hemisphere entering another heightened period of extreme amplification--that means that the jetstream will buckle quickly--like a whiplash, and when that happens, major events occur. For several runs now the ECMWF or European model has shown a deep eastern trough early next week. The last couple of runs have really got deeper, colder and stormier for the Southeast and much of the East Coast by next week.
There's too much discrepancy on the model runs right now to say where the storm will develop, but for now its worth watching. I will mention the GFS model, which has been showing many cutoffs well in advance this season, doesn't show this one. However it did briefly have a similar event back on December 22, which made it a run valid at 384 hours..so it could be a lucky strike for it. Either way, despite model indices, such as this being a La Nina, strong +AO and NAO, we still tend to get into a period of strong amplification about every 3 to 4 weeks, and twice these upper lows have dropped a little snow in the Tennessee Valley. Now if the ECMWF model is right, much colder air gets involved, and a potential major deep snowfall would result, but we can't say for sure yet.
One other thing, the ECMWF model also latched on early last year around this time, and caught the Christmas Southeast snowstorm from about a week out...eventually other models joined it. I'll update how I think this goes when I get a feel for one way or the other, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the models work westward slightly with this cutoff, placing the Southeast in a major rain-to-snow storm, and potential historic deep snow for some areas, especially around the Appalachian Chain and adjoing piedmont. No guarantees on any particular storm though and this one may not work out quite like this, but believe me when I say we're nowhere near done with monster sized storms in the South.

I have been stating a while now that this Winter will be an Historic one in terms of snow depth, for some areas of the Southeast. I still think that, and the tell-tale sign is the fact that the models continue to show all the high amplitude pattern and the resulting "cut off" lows. We've seen several this season and very far south, so it's only a matter of time before someone is digging out of a snowfall they will remember a very long time.

From Foothills blog

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 11:23 pm

12z fim supports CMC


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-29, 11:30 pm

thatd be a good 1-3 inches area wide

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-29, 11:33 pm

the ozgfs has the trough little further west, but its moisture starved.. the cold looks to be in and out type thus far.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 11:36 pm

The ensembles will disagree with the cold in and out but I guarantee you the gfs will trend wetter with such a well organixed full lat trough

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 11:39 pm

The gfs and euro ensemble AO/NAO is headed towards negative colder times ahead for most of JAN

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 11:44 pm



The 18z gfs ensembles are developing the negative NAO by JAN 10


Im waiting for the 0zCMC to run and maybe even the euro...reb u with me?

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Reb on 2011-12-29, 11:45 pm

im all in brother. prob sleep around 2

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-29, 11:47 pm

Me too canadian running in about 15min

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by keithinala on 2011-12-30, 1:33 am

hello folks...latest gfs shows much colder weather coming about two weeks into the new year too, so keep hope alive!

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-30, 1:36 am

keithinala wrote:hello folks...latest gfs shows much colder weather coming about two weeks into the new year too, so keep hope alive!

Keith, thanks for joining us here buddy!

I think you'll find lots of optimism here about the short to medium term outlook!

-Cheers!
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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 1:50 am

keithinala wrote:hello folks...latest gfs shows much colder weather coming about two weeks into the new year too, so keep hope alive!

Been waiting on you Keith...glad you made it over buddy....this is a more layed back place than the other forum.... post whatever u like and as much a syou like Smile

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-30, 5:44 am

yep, i second that keith, that trough is at a good place to carve out a big time storm to develop to our sw. and also, welcome keith to the forum buddy.well off to work in a few. lets hope the euro is on to something yall, thats the kind of trough we need.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 6:59 am

Canadian apparently didnt have the storm locked in.

Looks like a dry frontal passage, and cold air.

We'll have to wait for the next cold blast for any chance of white stuff.

Where's our pattern change toot?

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 8:09 am

jmundie wrote:Canadian apparently didnt have the storm locked in.

Looks like a dry frontal passage, and cold air.

We'll have to wait for the next cold blast for any chance of white stuff.

Where's our pattern change toot?

This storm is the pattern changer and it wont end up dry...you live by them models and you'll die by them too...we still got about 5 days before this one is decided whistle

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 8:21 am

Even the ensembles have dried up. I understand not basing a forecast entirely on models... But continuing to call for
Something with confidence in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is not good meteorology.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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