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Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 8:51 am

jmundie wrote:Even the ensembles have dried up. I understand not basing a forecast entirely on models... But continuing to call for
Something with confidence in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is not good meteorology.

Not the CMC ensembles...Im basically just talking about a light event in east TN anyways...but if I were a betting man u will see the gfs ensembles regain precip along the front also....when's the last time you remember a bone dry arctic front? You have to understand synoptics when looking at models...even if they all show something but that something dont agree with climo and the synoptic setup then I throw it out no matter how many models are showing it....If its still bone dry 48 hrs out i'll change my tune..... but I fully expect a linear stripe of precip along the cold front...thats the only thing that makes sense to me..... bone dry makes absolutely no sense to me...Sorry im not one that jumps ship because the models dont agee with my thoughts.....Hell ive still not changed my winter forecast


If there were a ridge of high pressure off the east coast for the front to dry up then I would call for that but since there is not...a dry front dont make good sense



The 0z Nogaps still has precip along the front but I expect it to be much wetter



And of course you have the JMA



and actually the CMC is not very far away from a miller a




Just saying there is still model support for my idea even tho its not your normal guidance but I bet they trend wetter by tonight..... just know that such a powerful trough will not be as dry as the GFS/Euro are advertising


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-30, 9:19 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 9:18 am

Its the angle that the trough is coming in Toot. Its not going to dig enough to form a secondary low pressure. The base is rounded, instead of angled, which prevents any development either. No energy in the southern stream, and the only good circulation up towards michigan.

It equals no snow and no precip. I'll agree that we haven't had a dry front this year. But we also haven't had anything coming in at this angle. the only possible hope we'd have is if there is more weakness in the ridge near texas than the models are picking up on and this thing leaves some energy in the southwest. But nothing in the modeling has suggested that will happen.

Again - eventually you will be right. A broken clock is right twice a day. But the endless pumping of nothingburger systems is getting old. You're sounding more and more like Bastardi.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 9:32 am

jmundie wrote:

Again - eventually you will be right. A broken clock is right twice a day. But the endless pumping of nothingburger systems is getting old. You're sounding more and more like Bastardi.

facepalm

Whatever mundie if you dont like the way I forecast then dont reply...im just telling you what I see...that front will not be dry....if you want to disagree with me thats fine and if im wrong i'll admit I was wrong...we may not get a secondary low to form in the gulf but that front will not be dry..book it son.

I dont forecast just by what the models are showing...models are for guidance and are not to be taken at face value...you have to have knowledge in climo and synoptics too. I forecast what makes sense to me from model guidance...sometimes im wrong sometimes im right but to call me bastardi is childish...its not like im callling for substancial accumulating snow....maybe some light snow in east TN is all...nothing more. Models are for guidance and calling for the front to be wetter than shown is not beyond guidance its just my knowledge of synoptics saying that....There is no reason for name calling because I dont agree with a particullar aspect of guidance...if I were calling for accumulating snow it would be different but at this point im not calling for accumulating snow pffft


Its just like you saying two cold fronts cant be in the same trough on twitter....evidently you dont understand synoptics real well popcorn




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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 9:51 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The CMC has this one pegged folks...There will be a strong cold front attached to a saskatchewan screamer (Clipper system) push through around Jan 2nd and I do think it will have post frontal snow on the westside of the cold front and rain on the front side as I alluded to on my blog about a week ago...this is whats called a snow squall line.


Those snow squall lines are rare but do occur with clippers that are strong enough. The last one I remember was the 2009/2010 superclipper that had linear snow attached to the backside of the cold front and linear rain on the front side of the cold front. After this snow and cold front moves out expect brutally cold temps as some places will get into the single digits especially the higher elevations

The true Arctic Outbreak will take hold around JAN3 and my model of choice is the CMC at this point it has been the most consistent lately and I will show the graphics of this outbreak via the CMC



I think snow squall line could be taken to mean some accumulations.

But we won't even see a snow squall line with this. The models can be pretty bad, but they aren't that bad 3 days out (which is where we are now).

And there is no sustained blocking showing up anywhere. Its going to warm up substantially after this trough moves out. Our next bout of cold is at least as far away as the 12-14 of january.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 9:58 am

And once again - the NAM is dry as a bone.

There is no gulf tappage with this system. Its completely cut off from any gulf moisture.

The only place that has a chance of seeing some snow would be extreme NE Tenn in upslope favored areas, and even that's a crap shoot. There's just no moisture.

Other folks need to know that you're wishcasting Toot. You've been wrong much more than right this year. Yet you continue to stick to your guns. Of course, we'll eventually get some cold and snow in Tennessee. It happens nearly every winter. But your 99% confidence statements about things that have no support outside of your cherry picking of model data and "climatology" is going to bite you. Eventually, you'll feel the ire that Bastardi feels when he goes all in on a forecast completely outside of model guidance. His fans get pissed.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:00 am

Snow squall line means a band of snow along a cold front...Mundie I have never called for accumulations in any way...you're grasping at straws and BTW were 4 days out not three.

And as a matter of fact ALL the ensemble means show light precip in east TN.... but again I think they trend a little wetter but even if they dont... my call of light snow in east TN could verify off of those ensemble means..so my thinking has plenty of support even though it is really light in east TN. If you dont think models can trend differently in 3-4 days you're sadly mistaken and im glad to know you know exactly when our next cold shot is because I dont....boy maybe you should get your own blog since you're so good at telling people they are wrong.

IMO we are heading towards a neg NAO/AO and this ridge in the west and not one in the east is a colder pattern change whether u like it or not. Thats a fact its a pattern change.... but it will take a while to get the indices to respond negatively.... of course this is just more of my hype according to mundie...and it has nothing to do with what im thinking...I have no skill at forecasting weather bleh


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-30, 10:36 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by skillsweather on 2011-12-30, 10:04 am

Toot, I thought you said this would be a pattern changer though? It's going to hit 50 next weekend.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:07 am

Skillsweather wrote:Toot, I thought you said this would be a pattern changer though? It's going to hit 50 next weekend.

it is a fookin pattern change gaah Just because it hits 50 one day does not negate the fact that there is no more SE ridge and the longwave pattern of the jetstream has changed drastically across the US...ive got a damn headache yikes

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:13 am

Im trying to be nice here but its hard....Skills even with a neg NAO it will still be possible to hit 50 degrees...we dont live in Alaska...sorry Smile

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 10:15 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Snow squall line means a band of snow along a cold front...Mundie I have never called for accumulations in any way...you're grasping at straws and BTW were 4 days out not three.

And as a matter of fact ALL the ensemble means show light precip in east TN.... but again I think they trend a little wetter but even if they dont... my call of light snow in east TN could verify off of those ensemble means..so my thinking has plenty of support even though it is really light in east TN. If you dont think models can trend differently in 3-4 days you're sadly mistaken and im glad to know you know exactly when our next cold shot is because I dont....boy maybe you should get your own blog since you're so good at telling people they are wrong.

IMO we are heading towards a neg NAO/AO and this ridge in the west and not one in the east is a colder pattern change whether u like it or not. Thats a fact its a pattern change but it will take a while to get the indices to respond negatively of course this is just more of my hype according to mundie it has nothing to do with what im thinking...I have no skill forecasting weather bleh

I never said models can't trend differently in 3 days. But when all models are in strong agreement with the placement of the h5 trough, calling for anything other than drizzle is crazy. Yeah - there are some pockets of less than .1 of qpf on the models. Most of that will be coming through in front of the front, more than likely, so at the most, someone might see a flurry or two.

But just because the models can change in 3 days, doesn't mean you forecast that they are going to change, and that you should do so with full confidence.

And as for a pattern change, we're getting a transient cold shot, but the teleconnections look very similar to december, a less positive ao/nao, but still positive. An occasional ridge in the west giving us a brief cold shot. Now that there is more cold air in canada, the cold will be colder (like this current trough). But the only blocking to be found is past 10 days, and who knows if that will actually verify. You certainly don't. But keep screaming pattern change. Eventually we'll get one, but probably not before people realize your Ms. Cleo masquarading as a forecaster.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:21 am

jmundie wrote:
I never said models can't trend differently in 3 days. But when all models are in strong agreement with the placement of the h5 trough, calling for anything other than drizzle is crazy. Yeah - there are some pockets of less than .1 of qpf on the models. Most of that will be coming through in front of the front, more than likely, so at the most, someone might see a flurry or two.

But just because the models can change in 3 days, doesn't mean you forecast that they are going to change, and that you should do so with full confidence.

And as for a pattern change, we're getting a transient cold shot, but the teleconnections look very similar to december, a less positive ao/nao, but still positive. An occasional ridge in the west giving us a brief cold shot. Now that there is more cold air in canada, the cold will be colder (like this current trough). But the only blocking to be found is past 10 days, and who knows if that will actually verify. You certainly don't. But keep screaming pattern change. Eventually we'll get one, but probably not before people realize your Ms. Cleo masquarading as a forecaster.


Mundie what dont you understand about IM NOT CALLING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIOMS RIGHT NOW? I do think its possible for the cold front to trend wetter and I think it will. This will be a pattern change with a dominant ridge in the west and a dominant trough in the east...its vice versa of the december pattern ....if you cant see that... then oh well. There is no more SE ridge

gaah




The NAO/AO indices are forecasted to trend downward toward neg and neutral...I cant tell you were they will go after that

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:26 am

People must think pattern change automatically equals negative NAO and AO....NEWSFLASH it dont....

A pattern change means reconfiguration of the 500mb pattern or jetstream across the U.S...Im getting a little tired of explaining things to somebody that should already know (mundie)


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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 10:38 am

You were the one who said that we're going to get sustained neg nao/ao. Not two days ago you said that.

Are we moving to a more amplified pattern? For at least a couple days... we might get a close high over alaska 10 days out, which would help bring down some cold... but certainly a huge ridge through the center of the country in days 6-10 doesn't like up with what you've been saying.

We're all here... even when you edit your posts, we've seen them.

Maybe just be a little more humble, and people won't care when you bust.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:45 am

jmundie wrote:You were the one who said that we're going to get sustained neg nao/ao. Not two days ago you said that.

Are we moving to a more amplified pattern? For at least a couple days... we might get a close high over alaska 10 days out, which would help bring down some cold... but certainly a huge ridge through the center of the country in days 6-10 doesn't like up with what you've been saying.

We're all here... even when you edit your posts, we've seen them.

Maybe just be a little more humble, and people won't care when you bust.

First of all what post of mine are you talking about?..But yeah I do think we are headed towards a sustained period of -ao/nao by mid to late JAN...but none of what u said negates the fact that we have switched from se ridge to SW ridge which is a damn pattern change...I cant control what that pattern change means for sensible weather here but it is a damn pattern change and a colder one at that

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 10:51 am

Sorry for the drama but i guess Mundie has misunderstood some posts of mine somewhere

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 10:56 am

12z GFS is at 42, looks pretty dry still. Hopefully some moisture will develop. Razz

EDIT: There is Pre-Frontal rain at hour 48. Not much, but at least it is showing something. Razz

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 11:06 am

The 12z GFS is dry again. puke

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Toot on 2011-12-30, 11:10 am

Adam2014 wrote:The 12z GFS is dry again. puke

Unless models trend back to a secondary area of cyclogenesis on the tail end of the front the only place that will have a chance is east TN and right now it looks like the mountains only but as i have said already I think the front will trend wetter...the question is how much wetter IMO.... but I really cant see that front being that dry without a hp system to its east

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 11:26 am

Well I really don't want to waste this cold air......

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 11:34 am

You'll be wasting it Adam. Nothing doing with a super nw flow like that.

Then a big ridge over the center of the country, and getting troughy in the west.

Almost like we've seen this movie before. Like all of december.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 11:44 am

jmundie wrote:You'll be wasting it Adam. Nothing doing with a super nw flow like that.

Then a big ridge over the center of the country, and getting troughy in the west.

Almost like we've seen this movie before. Like all of december.
Well at least there will be bowl games on to keep me occupied.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by jmundie on 2011-12-30, 11:59 am

Canadian says -


Dry as a bone. Upslope snow showers for NE Tennesse on Tuesday.

GFS says no blocking, no cold, no snow.

Where's our pattern change almighty climatologist?

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 12:07 pm

Guys can we just agree to disagree, I don't want to take sides so I won't do it. You both are very knowledgeble in weather so lets just move on to the next system. There is no need for this.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Guest on 2011-12-30, 12:27 pm

I will say this... I'm getting pretty pissed at this weather.

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-30, 12:32 pm

Tom23 wrote:I will say this... I'm getting pretty pissed at this weather.
Me too. scared

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Re: Quick shot of snow and Arctic Outbreak coming

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