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Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-04, 8:11 pm

Its looking sexy Toot can it hold together?

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-04, 8:11 pm

Like I said before - there is certainly going to be some arctic air coming down, but until I see -30 850s in the Ohio Valley, the 85 comparisons just don't hold water. Wasn't 94 another year with an epic arctic outbreak after some early winter warm?

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 8:14 pm

jmundie wrote:Like I said before - there is certainly going to be some arctic air coming down, but until I see -30 850s in the Ohio Valley, the 85 comparisons just don't hold water. Wasn't 94 another year with an epic arctic outbreak after some early winter warm?

Synoptically they do...but I agree I dont see it getting that cold but im sure forecasters in 1985 didnt either lmao

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-04, 8:16 pm

I'll say this then I'll shut up about Don for the time being. If and when it gets freaking frigid cold again mid month and the models are still showing cold for late January, I'm going to copy/pasta his remarks whatever they are and auto-tune the hell out of them. I may even make a music video to go along with it and upload it to YouTube. Nothing against him and his knowledge, I'm just wanting to see him bust on this after drilling it in everyone's heads for weeks on end. It'll be a tribute of sorts.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 8:21 pm

snowman72 wrote:Its looking sexy Toot can it hold together?

Its looking cold...im not sure how sexy it is yet

Stovepipe wrote:I'll say this then I'll shut up about Don for the time being. If and when it gets freaking frigid cold again mid month and the models are still showing cold for late January, I'm going to copy/pasta his remarks whatever they are and auto-tune the hell out of them. I may even make a music video to go along with it and upload it to YouTube. Nothing against him and his knowledge, I'm just wanting to see him bust on this after drilling it in everyone's heads for weeks on end. It'll be a tribute of sorts.

sunny

I was kidding with the "Donald Sutherland airtime" remark...I seriously enjoy hearing his thoughts and lord knows I dont have the time to go searching for them myself. Keep us posted smoke

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 8:32 pm

shane03 wrote: I dug frozen water lines for two days at home. just snow for me please lol.


No thanks yikes

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 8:49 pm

Who is Sutherland?

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-04, 9:27 pm

keithinala wrote:Who is Sutherland?

Others could probably give you a better description of the man and his professional credentials. I can tell you that he is a regular poster on the AmericanWX main forums and is constantly running statistics to forecast medium to long range weather. He is very well respected by most within the community. You can read his posts here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/20-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/

Lately he's been a bit like a broken record with his constant posts about a warm winter ahead. That is one of the reasons we've been sort of picking on him lately.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 9:37 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
keithinala wrote:Who is Sutherland?

Others could probably give you a better description of the man and his professional credentials. I can tell you that he is a regular poster on the AmericanWX main forums and is constantly running statistics to forecast medium to long range weather. He is very well respected by most within the community. You can read his posts here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/20-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/

Lately he's been a bit like a broken record with his constant posts about a warm winter ahead. That is one of the reasons we've been sort of picking on him lately.
I know American and all, just didn't remember that name.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by secleveland on 2012-01-04, 9:53 pm

Hello anyone here? are the models not running?I do not know where to find them yet help me out

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 9:55 pm

secleveland wrote:Hello anyone here? are the models not running?I do not know where to find them yet help me out
GFS starts about 9:30 central time...Euro around 11:30-midnight
here is one place to get some of them fast
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/index.php


Last edited by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 10:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by secleveland on 2012-01-04, 9:59 pm

Thank you. I will still wait tell someone tells me what it means.LOL

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by secleveland on 2012-01-04, 10:30 pm

Snow maybe no

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 10:45 pm

secleveland wrote:Snow maybe no

Right now its looking like a similar setup to the previous system...but there is alot going on so models are probably not handling everything correctly. Probably know alot more in a couple of days

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 11:51 pm

0Z has 10 degrees at Hun on the 13th and 14 degrees on the 15th

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-05, 6:55 am

The ensembles for 0z, and the Canadian seem to think this storm next week is going to have epic lakes fetch. Much more than the last system, with a north/south trajectory.

I'm starting to wonder how big this system will be. Im skeptical of the idea of such a late phase with the southern ull. I guess it's possible, but it seems more likely that it gets absorbed by the cold sooner than is being modeled.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-05, 8:32 am

Ok im officially excited wash and It does look like there will be some fun with this system...Its looking like a cold core low that transfers into a signifigant due north to NW flow event but I will caution you models are starting to lock onto this idea at a very early stage and this scenario is subject to signifigant changes but thats what the models are saying to me this morning. If this scenario is true then snow will be possible across dixie with the ULL and then it shifts to a NW flow event on steroids...but remember we are still about a week out from this and there will be changes...but given the setup this situation dont seem out of place to me.


Also severe arctic outbreak is looking likely

This mornings 6z gfs




Jan 20 1985 epic outbreak




Those look way too much alike to not mention it yikes


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2012-01-05, 9:02 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Guest on 2012-01-05, 8:39 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Ok im excited and It does look like there will be some fun with this system...Its looking like a cold core low that transfers into a signifigant NW flow event but I will caution you models are starting to lock onto this idea at a very early stage and this scenario is subject to signifigant changes but thats what the models are saying to me this morning. If this scenario is true then snow will be possible across dixie with the ULL and then it shifts to a NW flow event on steroids...but remember we are still about a week out from this and there will be changes...but given the setup this situation dont seem out of place to me.


Also severe arctic outbreak is looking likely




Those look way too much alike to not mention it yikes

Wow dude, that looks almost exactly like Jan. 20, 1985... I know it'll be freezing, but man oh man, what I'd give to experience it once in my lifetime to see what it was like first-hand.... oh boy..

As far as next week's system goes, who knows?? It could be an epic snowstorm for all of Tn, an Apps runner that hits only West/Middle Tn (unlikely to me at this juncture), or just an ordinary NW flow event much like the last system was (except for it was cold enough for the little bit of snow that we had to make driving treacherous, which could happen once again if this is the true setup).... bottom line, its too far away to really get a handle on it. If the same type of setup is being shown the first of next week, I'll be onboard an epic snow, but for now, I have no reason to not think that it'll be the same run-of-the-mill type of system that we just very recently had.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-05, 9:06 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Ok im officially excited wash and It does look like there will be some fun with this system...Its looking like a cold core low that transfers into a signifigant NW flow event but I will caution you models are starting to lock onto this idea at a very early stage and this scenario is subject to signifigant changes but thats what the models are saying to me this morning. If this scenario is true then snow will be possible across dixie with the ULL and then it shifts to a NW flow event on steroids...but remember we are still about a week out from this and there will be changes...but given the setup this situation dont seem out of place to me.


Also severe arctic outbreak is looking likely

This mornings 6z gfs




Jan 20 1985 epic outbreak




Those look way too much alike to not mention it yikes

Except one is the polar vortex and the other is not.

This is like comparing a run of the mill moderate risk severe weather outbreak with the super outbreak or 4/27.

Its going to be cold, and the vortex is in a good location, but this is just a piece of the vortex, and in 85 it was the entirety of the PV. That's why you've got insanely low thicknesses at h5 and a gigantic area of sub -20 850 temps.

The situation that the GFS has been modeling in the long range does bear some similarities to 85, but the center of the coldest air is still too far north.

This is an 85 type look, except the cold is bottled north of the mason dixon line. Move that vortex 500 miles south, and we'll talk about a Jan 85 redux. (if the NAO can go negative with the blocking over alaska, then it would be insanely cold in the long range. Just need teleconnection cooperation)





and the 850 temps in the same frame


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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-05, 9:10 am

jmundie wrote:The ensembles for 0z, and the Canadian seem to think this storm next week is going to have epic lakes fetch. Much more than the last system, with a north/south trajectory.

I'm starting to wonder how big this system will be. Im skeptical of the idea of such a late phase with the southern ull. I guess it's possible, but it seems more likely that it gets absorbed by the cold sooner than is being modeled.

Today's lucky ensemble winner is Member n002, come on down and claim your prize!

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-05, 9:16 am

jmundie wrote:
Except one is the polar vortex and the other is not.


They're both pieces of a cAK vortex....though I totally agree with you that it will not get as cold as 85....its still looking to be a very powerful arctic outbreak and thats the only thing I am saying with the analog comparison. Jan 85 remains a great analog and I would caution you about translating small scale details such as 850 and surface temps at this range. The global models are not at all great with such small scale details.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-05, 10:17 am

If you think all the models are missing a giant area of -20 C 850s, then by all means, think that.

But we're 6 days out now, and the extreme cold is still too far up north to get in this trough.

My idea since Christmas has been if it gets colder, it would be a stairstep. Early this week being the first round of arctic air, with subsequent smaller warm ups in between the cold shots, hopefully translating into some blocking.

If that's the case, we could get the motherload of arctic air sometime after the middle of the month, and its entirely possible it could be of similar strength of the arctic blast of 85, but we need serious warming in the AO and NAO regions to push a large, cold piece of the PV down. Yesterday's run of the Euro had the -20 850s in our area, which is not an every year event, and I think that's more likely for our first round next week (assuming a good early phase) with the second, deeper trough coming a week from then as the PV breaks apart and hopefully we end up with a block over alaska AND greenland.

JB is inching that way, but we all know how much he's waffled this year. He's thinking trough from Portland Maine to Portland Oregon with the coldest air in years.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-05, 10:33 am

jmundie wrote:
JB is inching that way, but we all know how much he's waffled this year. He's thinking trough from Portland Maine to Portland Oregon with the coldest air in years.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Are you a WeatherBell subscriber or is JB posting on a public blog somewhere? His twitter spam is spastic but I did see these:


GFS Ensembles are continuing to echo ideas that the biggest mid winter flip since 2007 is on the way. Ugly cold evolving lt nxweek/beyond

strong troughs day 7-10 has canadian archipelago air.. cold but not as cold as what follows week 3 ..cross polar air. pattern may lock

Seriously that man twitters like Smokey in Debo's chicken coop. Literally 50 tweets in the past 24 hours and almost all of them are B.S.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-05, 10:55 am

I got the info second hand from a subscriber posting at Amwx

Apparently the long term Euro ensembles are showing an even bigger cold wave coming in in the 300 plus hour range, per the maps JB subscribers have seen.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Guest on 2012-01-05, 11:09 am

If JB was correct, how cold would it be?? Are we talking 20's for highs or teens for highs??

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

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