Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
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Midstateweather
Grandpa Nasty
Snowmania
ballpark
secleveland
shane03
snowdog
Southeastbutter
jmundie
Vanster67
snowman72
keithinala
John1122
Adam2014
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tennessee storm09
Reb
skillsweather
Stovepipe
Toot
24 posters
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
booo!!! lol. also...i just noticed...this place sorda looks almost like tnwx in terms of just looks hahahaha
Reb- Admin
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
that looks awfully sexy
Reb- Admin
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
You looking at those new maps, or still the milk and bread bama gal?Reb wrote:that looks awfully sexy
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
new maps? what new maps?
Reb- Admin
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
The ones you said looked sexy..I thought. Now I'm confused.Reb wrote:new maps? what new maps?
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
lol joking! yes the maps, keith
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
Yeah it's very encouraging that the Euro is also showing a big storm during this time period. Tons of moisture to work with, a big cut off low, and temps, while somewhat marginal, don't look too far off the mark. This is going to be a fun one to watch this week.
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
Eh, I don't think so as much as you all do.. Geaux TIGERS
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
the 0z euro is looking sweet for eas. t arkie, west tn, north miss. with snow developing on the backside of the ull. going to be fun watching this system unfold
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
tennessee storm09 wrote:the 0z euro is looking sweet for eas. t arkie, west tn, north miss. with snow developing on the backside of the ull. going to be fun watching this system unfold
Eh, when is East Tn gonna get their load of snow?? Its been West Tn this whole year except for a few flurries here and there... yuck.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
Tom it's too early to say who is going to cash in the best on this potential. Just be glad there is something to track.
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
keithinala wrote:Doubting Thomas, lol
Its better than what I was last year haha.... last year I was 'Weenie Thomas' lol. This year, not so much. I've learned to have more patience with the patterns and not jump onboard every single model run, just like I learned not to jump offboard with a single bad model run when models had been consistent in showing something good for a while.
So in a way, I've actually taken a more reasonable, cautious approach to weather. Besides, we have no say in what ends up happening, whether we are forecasting something huge to happen or just a dusting or whatnot.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
I don't think anyone around here is "on board" with this threat per say, but are just interested in tracking the possibility. We all know it'll change a hundred times and odds are not in our favor that we'll get hit with something big. Hell the 6z GFS lost the storm lol. But, it's the thrill of the chase that keeps us hitting F5.
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
Stovepipe wrote:I don't think anyone around here is "on board" with this threat per say, but are just interested in tracking the possibility. We all know it'll change a hundred times and odds are not in our favor that we'll get hit with something big. Hell the 6z GFS lost the storm lol. But, it's the thrill of the chase that keeps us hitting F5.
I'm talking in more general ways than just this possible event. I'm talking the whole scope of weather events (eg. cold air outbreaks, major snows, severe weather outbreaks, etc.)
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
here you go doubting thomas, from the HPC this morning:
THE BIG QUESTION MARK OVER THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATING A POTENT WAVE OVER THE GULF STATES...WITH NEITHER
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN DOING SO. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A DISTINCT CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...SO FELT THAT THE
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS
LENT SOME CREDENCE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
relax tom, the euro has the ull going over north georgia so the backside snows do get pulled through middle and east tennessee also... bad part about it is, the euro is the only one on board at this time, like stove said, nobody has jumped on this ship yet... lets just see how other models trendTom23 wrote:Stovepipe wrote:I don't think anyone around here is "on board" with this threat per say, but are just interested in tracking the possibility. We all know it'll change a hundred times and odds are not in our favor that we'll get hit with something big. Hell the 6z GFS lost the storm lol. But, it's the thrill of the chase that keeps us hitting F5.
I'm talking in more general ways than just this possible event. I'm talking the whole scope of weather events (eg. cold air outbreaks, major snows, severe weather outbreaks, etc.)
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
As the HPC states in my post, the GFS also is showing a potent wave, it's not just the Euro.
Even GSP NWS over in South Carolina mentioned it:
Even GSP NWS over in South Carolina mentioned it:
Edit: not liking the look of the 12Z GFS thoughHOWEVER LOOKING PAST DAY 7...IT IS POSSIBLE THE UPPER
LOW/TROF COULD HAVE A WINTRY TYPE IMPACT BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE
AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT
PARTICULAR SCENARIO AT THIS POINT THOUGH.
Last edited by keithinala on 2012-01-02, 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
keithinala wrote:here you go doubting thomas, from the HPC this morning:THE BIG QUESTION MARK OVER THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATING A POTENT WAVE OVER THE GULF STATES...WITH NEITHER
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN DOING SO. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A DISTINCT CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...SO FELT THAT THE
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS
LENT SOME CREDENCE TO THOSE SOLUTIONS.
Good deal! I hope that happens. But I am not going to give any sort of credence to anything until about 3 days out. How many times have we seen a monster snowstorm modeled up to the 3-5 day range, but then it is completely lost, then people start jumping off the cliffs?? I choose not to do that this year. In order to keep myself from doing that, I've chosen to wait until 3 days out on ANY system before I get pumped even in the slightest.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
LOL I think it fun to watch Tom Panic.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
lol...Tom's on some kind of crazy kick this morning....im actually having fun with it.
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
I have noticed that the local mets have at least put moisture in the forecast 10-15 but they have not lowered the temps yet.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
snowman72 wrote:I have noticed that the local mets have at least put moisture in the forecast 10-15 but they have not lowered the temps yet.
This setup screams ice somewhere IMO...hopefully that changes
Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems
If you feel that way, don't comment on anything until 3 days out. The constant negativity sucks, quite franklyTom23 2.0 wrote:keithinala wrote:here you go doubting thomas, from the HPC this morning:
Good deal! I hope that happens. But I am not going to give any sort of credence to anything until about 3 days out. How many times have we seen a monster snowstorm modeled up to the 3-5 day range, but then it is completely lost, then people start jumping off the cliffs?? I choose not to do that this year. In order to keep myself from doing that, I've chosen to wait until 3 days out on ANY system before I get pumped even in the slightest.
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