WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Page 21 of 22 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 20, 21, 22  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 1:32 pm

Check out how fast this one is moving...This is why these are called clippers Shocked


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 2:22 pm

This one is moving in much faster than I expected...with the sun out in some spots in east TN it has allowed surface temps to get to near 40 in the valley. As the clouds move in from west to east it will sort of lock those temps in for a while...the valley may never cool down enough for all snow. Its really a borderline situation with the speed of this system.


Boy... what a rough winter in the east TN valley yikes


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-14, 2:39 pm

Yeah, it's moving right along. And the MRX dayshift, as usual, came in and lowered snow chances here. JKL holds theirs at 70 percent though. Upslope should kick in for a while behind the clipper.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-14, 2:47 pm

And we'll see if it happens but the SREF and some other simradars have precip exploding over Eastern Tennessee and Eastern Ky.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 3:43 pm

MRX pulled the gun on a WWA in the mountains


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.


TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-150500-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.120114T2100Z-120115T1200Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...JONESVILLE...
WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY.

* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500
FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...
UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

They also issued a new SPS for the northern and some of the central valley and plateau locales and they say up to one inch there.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-150915-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-
ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-
NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...WARTBURG...
CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...
NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...
LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE
305 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS TONIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS SOME AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT DRIVING
AND WALKING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ON SOME ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

DMG



_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 4:32 pm

John you getting any precip or is that virga?

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by skillsweather on 2012-01-14, 4:32 pm

This is such a sad winter when the mountains are happy for 1 inch of snow.. lool usually they get snow every system during the winter time... Im ready for spring sortof i love snow but im so bummed i say just bring spring and maybe next years winter will be better.

skillsweather
Founding Member

Posts : 313
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 26
Location : tennessee Wilson county Ne Corner

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-14, 4:44 pm

Virga so far Toot.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Reb on 2012-01-14, 5:03 pm

hmmm so no more precip will show up?

_________________
Happy Holidays!!!
avatar
Reb
Admin

Posts : 745
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Maryville, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 5:10 pm

LeConte just socked in. Not sure it's going to get cold enough where I'm at for the precip that is quickly moving through on radar. Might be a flop.

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 5:14 pm

Reb the back side of the low pressure system (we're on the front side right now) seems to be where most of our precip will come from as the low heads east-southeast models are blowing precip up over east TN. This is not a very familiar stormtrack track to us and may throw a few curveballs our way.

That and then NW flow snowshowers should kick in over night.

This surface map is valid for 6z sunday...notice the position of the low and its associated precip behind it over east TN

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 5:17 pm

Interesting info Toot, thanks man!
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 5:57 pm

No problem...Here is the position of the low now out in middle TN




_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-14, 6:16 pm

Not a cloud in the sky now it must be over

snowman72
Founding Member

Posts : 98
Join date : 2011-12-09
Age : 45
Location : foothills of the Smokies (Walland)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 6:21 pm

Based on the HRRR and what I'm seeing on radar, this looks like a non-event. Hopefully some magic happens but it's not looking good.

Oh well!

sauce
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 6:26 pm

Dont let the radar fool you...any snow will be on the backside of the low. Accumulations look to hug the montains and foothills and there also looks to be accumulations in NE TN if the models are correct.


If you are a reader of MRX AFD's it will also tell you the same

THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
IT
PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FAST-MOVING `CLIPPER` LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WILL PLAN TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA AND THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WILL REISSUE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT TN VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND
NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BUT BEGIN TO REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL PLAN TO TREND TOWARDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

I didnt expect to see the precip so soon (even though it was virga) because the models that I was looking at didnt show any precip til 12am tonight. I just hope the coulumn is saturated by then. Still the radar would lead you to believe that this is over....we shall see. But Stove is correct also....the HR says this is pretty much over lmao What a bust that would be for everybody worry


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-14, 6:46 pm; edited 3 times in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 6:37 pm

Preach it brother!

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 6:43 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Preach it brother!


Im sort of doubting we see any accumulations...but Ive been fooled before. MRX and GSP both have WWA's in the mountains though so we shall see.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 6:53 pm

Latest from MRX

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
625 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS TRI
WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW REDUCING
CEILINGS TO 2-3KFT AND VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES AT TIMES.

AT TYS AND CHA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. TYS MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 02-06Z...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKY
AREA-WIDE.

Im about to pull the plug on this one myself MRX has dropped the totals in the mountains to one inch.



Time to stick a fork in this one facepalm

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Math/Met on 2012-01-14, 7:19 pm

A few flakes finally made it to the surface as that band moved out of Greeneville. That was a lot of wasted precipitation (trying to saturate the column) for a system that didn't have a lot of moisture to work with anyway. The low levels are just really dry.


Math/Met
Meteorologist

Posts : 226
Join date : 2011-12-05

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 7:32 pm

Have to say the GFS and Euro nailed this one 4 or 5 days out. This is pretty much what they showed consistently.

console
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 7:37 pm

There is some development on radar in the western portion of the CWA...not sure if it will amount to anything

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=MRX&product=N0R&loop=no

May be just noise

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-14, 7:39 pm

I looked. Might be a consolatory flurry or two! Bring it!
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-14, 7:49 pm

Stovepipe wrote:I looked. Might be a consolatory flurry or two! Bring it!

Thanks for playing we have some nice parting gifts for you hurry

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Reb on 2012-01-14, 8:19 pm

precip breaking out now, TYS is at 36

_________________
Happy Holidays!!!
avatar
Reb
Admin

Posts : 745
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Maryville, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 21 of 22 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 20, 21, 22  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum