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Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-04, 2:30 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
jmundie wrote:Where is everybody? GFS is about 24 hours of timing off from historic....
i agree with you 100 percent mindie, the energy holds back just a tad longer, boom goes the dynamite. i am also at work... but on lunch break. come on euro, gives us some good news. i will be on tonight, this is getting intersting to say the least.

O.k. here comes the noob questions. Why are we wanting the energy to hold back a bit longer? Are we waiting on cold air, like we are so used to? Is this one of those systems that the mositure comes first and the cold air behind it?

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-04, 2:37 pm

Carrie -

There are two "systems" that we're looking at coming from different places. One will be coming from the desert southwest, texas/newmexico area, the other is a big cold from coming in from Montana.

If the energy from the southwest moves too fast, it will rain hard for a couple days, then the cold air will come through.

If the energy holds back (or if the cold front speeds up) those two pieces of energy will "phase" ... or merge together for lack of a better description, which pulls the cold air in faster, underneath the precipitation from the southern piece of energy, and a snow storm will ensue, followed by an arctic outbreak.

You can see what I'm talking about below. The circle of dark red is the energy moving east from Texas. This is how the gulf of mexico moisture gets pulled up over the US. Then you have the energy from the cold air coming in front canada. It rides southeastward, and needs to be timed perfectly so that the two systems join together with us on the cold side of a storm pulling in moisture from the gulf of mexico.


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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-04, 2:37 pm

Freakin brrrrr cold


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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-04, 2:46 pm

I see, mundie. Thanks so much for explaining it. I am trying hard to not get excited. It is so bitter-sweet these storms where the timing has to be perfect. It's so fun to watch and wait, but these do tend to bust and when the bust...they bust hard core. Fingers crossed. Smile

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-04, 2:48 pm

Just glancing at the 12z Euro, it seems to not stray too much from it's previous solution. It's still showing potential on both the 8th and the 12th, the latter with deep cold that pushes the 540 down to the gulf coast.
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-04, 3:55 pm

Some folks at TNWX are possibly comparing this winter to the 1985 winter. I was 4 then, but I do vaguely remember a few very cold and very snowy winters. Does anyone know/remember what the winter in 85 was like for east TN?

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-04, 4:08 pm

January was very snowy and very very cold. Knoxville recorded the official lowest temperature in the nation on January 21st at -24 on the UT campus.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-01-04, 4:10 pm

This is looking interesting, I am going to start model watching lol.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Reb on 2012-01-04, 4:12 pm

i never stopped model watching...god im so addicted rock on

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-01-04, 4:28 pm

Lol I have been at some social events as of late.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-04, 4:37 pm



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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-04, 5:05 pm

Hells yeah, Stove!! Negative!

I love the Carlton gif!

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 5:34 pm

jmundie wrote:

The AO going negative is a response to the warming over central asia. That's the ridge that has been building up into the arctic. The NAO going negative is a result of the AO going negative. While it can happen, its hard for the NAO to be negative without at least a neutral AO.


The only issue I have with that post is the part thats bolded....while I agree that the AO an NAO follow each other there is times that they are pretty far apart...and I will have to disagree on your reason of the NAO going towards negative on the index....the only reason the NAO will go negative on an index is that heights are building somewhere in the NAO region. These heights will usually coincide with heights building somewhere in the AO region 90% of the time and thats why you get the AO and NAO going negative at the same time. Im not going to comment on stormtrack around the 12th because the euro and gfs ensembles are still all over the place...but there is one thing they are in unanimous agreement on and thats another shot of arctic air in wake of the storm cold

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by keithinala on 2012-01-04, 5:36 pm

HUN has an interesting tidbit in this afternoon's discussion:
FURTHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EXTENDED GFS WAS HINTING AT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ALASKA/NW TERRITORIES/ARCTIC OCEAN. GIVEN
VARIANT OUTPUT BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS...WON`T GO ON A LIMB WITH A
VERY COLD OUTBREAK YET. BUT IN ANY CASE...IT WILL PROBABLY TREND
COOLER THAN USUAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 6:16 pm

The JAN 85 analog holds alot of weight due to the mean position of a PV feature near Hudson bay and the crazy positive AO during fall and December. The JAN 85 arctic outbreak was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic not at all unlike what is currently going on.

I personally dont think that we will get as cold as Jan 85 but anything close to that will be equally brutal. The polar air has been bottled up and building and now the rubberband is fixing to snap. I talked about this possibility on the FB page back in early December

Something interesting regarding the Arctic Oscillation

A positive AO really allows cold air to build in thick around the north pole, northern Canada and other polar regions. Unlike last year the Arctic Oscillation has gotten highly positive this fall. Being that fall has the least amount of daylight in the polar regions and the AO has gotten highly positive the cold has built in extremely strong.

Once the AO goes decently negative (and it will) that cold will dump into the eastern conus. I would imagine there will be a few records broke and the cold will seem more brutal compared to last year.

I guess those people spamming the idea of a warm January in the east can finally get off the pot evl

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-04, 6:46 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The JAN 85 analog holds alot of weight due to the mean position of a PV feature near Hudson bay and the crazy positive AO during fall and December. The JAN 85 arctic outbreak was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic not at all unlike what is currently going on.

I personally dont think that we will get as cold as Jan 85 but anything close to that will be equally brutal. The polar air has been bottled up and building and now the rubberband is fixing to snap. I talked about this possibility on the FB page back in early December

Something interesting regarding the Arctic Oscillation

A positive AO really allows cold air to build in thick around the north pole, northern Canada and other polar regions. Unlike last year the Arctic Oscillation has gotten highly positive this fall. Being that fall has the least amount of daylight in the polar regions and the AO has gotten highly positive the cold has built in extremely strong.

Once the AO goes decently negative (and it will) that cold will dump into the eastern conus. I would imagine there will be a few records broke and the cold will seem more brutal compared to last year.

I guess those people spamming the idea of a warm January in the east can finally get off the pot evl
don sutherland, what did you say lol!

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-04, 6:50 pm

i like the position of the pv toot the ensembles are showing. if that verifies, its going to be close like 85 dude, temp wise. i remember that winter proably better than anybody on this forum, cause i was 21 at the time. i was home on a long leave from the service. remember the long snowy drive from northcarolina to tennessee. fun times could be ahead yall.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 7:02 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:don sutherland, what did you say lol!

Lol...well I wasnt gonna name any names...That said....Don Sutherland is a very smart guy!

tennessee storm09 wrote:i like the position of the pv toot the ensembles are showing. if that verifies, its going to be close like 85 dude, temp wise. i remember that winter proably better than anybody on this forum, cause i was 21 at the time. i was home on a long leave from the service. remember the long snowy drive from northcarolina to tennessee. fun times could be ahead yall.

Its definately a frigid look Bruce yikes


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2012-01-04, 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-04, 7:11 pm

more stuff i look at on this change, its just blows my mind how close to ssimilarity of a setup this is compared to january 85, kind of scary... this is the most optomistic i have been by far this winter... i have actually almost throwed the towel in yall. lets keep our fingeres crossed this plays out, cause weather we get snow with the first system or not, in this type setup we will get our chances yall. cold

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 7:29 pm

I like the idea of crazy cold until it gets here...then not so much wow


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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-04, 7:29 pm

Mr. Sutherland is not only still on the January torch train, he thinks February will be even warmer lol.

Don:

My current thinking is that February will be warmer, relative to normal, than January. The magnitude of the warmth will depend on the evolution of the La NiƱa and state of blocking (or lack thereof).

[Insert Debbie Downer Pic Here]
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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 7:40 pm

I wonder what Mr Sutherland would have to say about this epic polar warming (way up there in the heavens) that the models are showing evl





evl

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by shane03 on 2012-01-04, 7:49 pm

I was 15 in 85 and im a snow weenie but the cold was awful. I dug frozen water lines for two days at home. just snow for me please lol.

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-04, 7:57 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:I wonder what Mr Sutherland would have to say about this epic polar warming (way up there in the heavens) that the models are showing evl





evl
i am not trying to turn this thread into a bash don suterland thread, but personally i think the man is way over rated... i always have thought that about him. stoned

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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

Post by Toot on 2012-01-04, 8:02 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:I am not trying to turn this thread into a bash don suterland thread, but personally i think the man is way over rated... i always have thought that about him. stoned

Lol...we may need a thread titled "Donald Sutherland" as much airtime as the man gets here...Just sayin smartass







Im such a smartass scared


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Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

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