WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Late January warmup with possible severe

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-18, 3:04 pm

Someone asked Robert:

What do you make of severe weather chances in the southeast next Tuesday(ish)??

Robert:

The runs are beginning to mingle in my mind now, but both models had a pretty sharp trough about that time. It depends on the Big High in Canada and how that pushes the New England or eastern Canada trough, so its up in the air, but generally I think there's a good chance of it, and to me it almost appears one system will turn neg. tilt in the Southeast or Tenn valley, not sure if that was the Monday one or the one after. All these systems seem to have the ability to generate severe or atleast potential such that watch boxes are eventually needed. I don't see why it wouldn't continue, it's like March but only in January. If there's no real change in February, then severe is a given that month in the southern Plains to Southeast. Hopefully the nina will be winding down soon.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-18, 5:08 pm

I dont doubt there wont be some severe but it dont look like a widespread signifigant event that was recently and consistently modeled.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-18, 9:06 pm

i cant believe the gfs has gone from yesterday 18z which looked like a major severe weather outbreak to a crappy closed low all less in 24 hours. why are we even looking at models these days. something has to give.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-18, 9:35 pm

LOL


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-18, 9:38 pm

Bravo!
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-19, 9:00 am

Dont look now but guidance seems to be trending back to a more severe look...this storm is giving the models a very hard time. Until it washes through mid to long range guidance is practically worthless. I think you will see big changes in guidance after this storm occurs.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-20, 8:52 am

Good gracious...we are under a slight risk today yikes




TOR



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE/HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE
E PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CA/ORE CST EARLY
SAT. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM...LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
NOW OVER UT SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY E/SE TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS
AFTN...AND INTO OZARKS SAT MORNING...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFYING IN THE
PROCESS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONT NOW
STALLING OVER THE TN AND LWR MS VLYS. THE LOW SHOULD REACH E TN BY
12Z SAT AS THE TRAILING...WRN PART OF THE FRONT ACCELERATES SE
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/ARKLATEX.

...LWR MS/TN VLY TO SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
WARM SECTOR OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS THE MID LVLS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
/MINUS 12 TO MINUS 14C AT 500 MB/ AND UPR LVL FORCING WEAK. BUT BY
THIS EVE...CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND PERSISTENT LOW
LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD YIELD INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF AL NWD INTO MIDDLE TN. A SEPARATE BAND OF
STORMS MAY FORM LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY SAT FROM FAR ERN AR AND NRN
MS NEWD INTO ERN TN...ERN KY...AND N GA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF CNTRL PLNS UPR IMPULSE.

THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MS/TN VLY REGION
REMAINS IN QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS... SFC AND STLT DATA SHOW
PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE OVER THE NWRN AND N CNTRL GULF
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF E TX...LA...AND MS....WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 6OS F. THIS AIR COULD SPREAD N/NE INTO SRN/ERN TN AND
MUCH OF AL LATER TODAY/TNGT...BOOSTING SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG.
SIMILAR VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EXTEND NE INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS EARLY SAT.

MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP W/SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION....WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 40 KTS. NEAR-SFC DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...WHILE NOT LIKELY TO BE GREAT IN MAGNITUDE... SHOULD MAXIMIZE
IN ZONE OF SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE GRADIENT...I.E. FROM NRN MS/W TN SE INTO NRN/CNTRL AL.

OVERALL SETUP NOW APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FOR WIND...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS AFTN OR THIS
EVE...AND MAY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH 06-12Z SAT GIVEN EXPECTED
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF APPROACHING CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE AS
UPSTREAM SYSTEM DEEPENS ALONG THE W CST.

...CNTRL GULF CST/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY...
ISOLD TO SCTD BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN LOW LVL WAA ZONE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND NEUTRAL TO...AT
BEST...WEAK UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT CHARGE
SEPARATION AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS/SVR WEATHER OVER THE REGION.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-20, 9:51 am

Don Sutherland and the other big dogs over at American are bullish on this deep cut off southern cyclone around 24-26th.

Met ohleary had this to say:

50/50 chance we'll be running WSR on the wave in the Pacific 22/00Z that will evolve into this event. Decent model agreement but the 06Z GFS is the outlier of the major global models, moving the wave along instead of cutting it off like the others. We have very limited hours this year due to budget concerns but with little happening it might be worth it.

I can only assume WSR is some sort of enhanced radar that is being used to get a better grip on this feature. Better stock up on popcorn, this could get interesting.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-20, 1:16 pm

Interesting info about this WSR.

DaculaWeather:

The mission will take the Gulfstream IV north, east and west of Hawaii, and occasionally as far as Alaska. Data gathered in the upper atmosphere by the NOAA aircraft, which flies at 45,000 feet, will be supplemented by data collected at lower altitudes by a U.S. Air Force Reserve weather reconnaissance plane. The flight tracks for both aircraft will be developed by NCEP.

Here's the map of the general recon location
http://maps.google.c...34714,79.013672

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-20, 1:33 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Don Sutherland and the other big dogs over at American are bullish on this deep cut off southern cyclone around 24-26th.

Met ohleary had this to say:

50/50 chance we'll be running WSR on the wave in the Pacific 22/00Z that will evolve into this event. Decent model agreement but the 06Z GFS is the outlier of the major global models, moving the wave along instead of cutting it off like the others. We have very limited hours this year due to budget concerns but with little happening it might be worth it.

I can only assume WSR is some sort of enhanced radar that is being used to get a better grip on this feature. Better stock up on popcorn, this could get interesting.
yes it does sound very intersting. i am at work on lunch. so i will check into the severe later tonight. sneaky

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-20, 11:26 pm

meso just out from spc, southern west tn, n. miss... severe threat is increasing... watch may be coming soon

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-21, 2:13 am

"Hide yo kids, hide yo wife!"

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:54 am

Nasty semi linear storms heding our way


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 3:57 am

And this for tommorow evening

SPC AC 210651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO/AR/NRN LA EWD TO
THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PERIOD -- BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AS IT
CROSSES THE MS VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND/WEAKER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC -- REACHING THE W COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LIKEWISE MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...MID AND LOWER MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
CLOSER AGREEMENT IS EVIDENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS THIS FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH TIMING AND LOCATION MORE
CONSISTENT. WITH A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPRESSED ONLY TO
THE GULF COASTAL REGION BY THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION...NWD RETURN
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT/ADVANCING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MID MS
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED -- WITH
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY ONGOING INVOF THE
REMNANT/BACKDOOR/DAMMING FRONT LIKELY TO BE LYING NW-SE ACROSS AL
AND INTO GA.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH
TIME...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD TO/ACROSS THE
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION -- RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION EVOLVES LINEARLY ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION --
BEFORE SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OCCURS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2012

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-21, 8:36 am

This was awesome to wake up to. Thunder rattled the house hard.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 9:04 am

My 7 month old Jack Russell/Chihuahua dog started growling and barking at the thunder. She wasn't scared of it at all, but she was trying to scare the storm off lol.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 11:08 am

Could be some rotaing supercells as hi res WRF shows hints at it looks like some discrete supercells out ahead of the boundary yikes



Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-21, 12:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 12:15 pm

Toot wrote:Could be some rotaing supercells as hi res WRF shows hints at it looks like some discrete supercells out ahead of the boundary yikes

i agree toot, i have notice that myself... gfs nam indicating mostly linear event, but further down toward the state border of miss and alabama, wind profiles look more directional... could get an isolated tornado... lets see what the euro holds for us.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 12:20 pm

That image has updated but the discrete action looks to stay south of TN

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 12:36 pm

fwiw, meg did a noon short update, just in... they seemed very concerned over the 12z nam gfs, showing 45 to 55 knts bulk shear... they eneded the discussion by saying ROTATING STORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TOMORROW LATE sneaky

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 12:39 pm

i am anxious to see what the euro has to show, its been even more bullish with the energy back to our sw... i am starting to get a little more pumped up about tomorrow,

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 12:44 pm

wow, check out latest spc update for tomorrow event, 30 percent hatched area. moderate risk is forthcoming

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 7:04 pm

its unreal that this topic is getting ignored...maybe cause lots of folks dont think it effects east tn... or everyone still has winter on their mind...this threat is real and its getting in imminent time period... there have been mets over on american weather comparing this setup as like in january 99... and i agree 110 percent . same type dynamic system during dead of winter.. actucally the cape this time may even be a smidge higher... jackson got socked by a ef4 twister that night, killing 10... not that am i close to sayt its going to happen again... but i tell you this much... i hate to use the other forum word, so i wont... but our dear old friend kevin is even getting concerned sneaky

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 54
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 7:07 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:its unreal that this topic is getting ignored...maybe cause lots of folks dont think it effects east tn... or everyone still has winter on their mind...this threat is real and its getting in imminent time period... there have been mets over on american weather comparing this setup as like in january 99... and i agree 110 percent . same type dynamic system during dead of winter.. actucally the cape this time may even be a smidge higher... jackson got socked by a ef4 twister that night, killing 10... not that am i close to sayt its going to happen again... but i tell you this much... i hate to use the other forum word, so i wont... but our dear old friend kevin is even getting concerned sneaky

Kevin from tnwx is really getting hyped about this one... that, folks, is when you know something is imminent/big deal type. Of course, it could all bust (has happened before) but if this thing comes close to using its full potential, then we may see a huge, huge outbreak in certain sections of the state.

However, with that said, I think the storms will be real bad over West Tn, but get more linear as it crosses the TN River. So by the time it reaches E. Tn, it will still be bad, but nothing horrendous. But take that as a grain of salt.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 7:08 pm

And Bruce, you know that you are our severe guy, so its all up to you to get it hyped up on this board lol... besides, Toot has been busy dealing with craziness today (though Snowmania was funny, gotta admit lol)

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum