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Late January warmup with possible severe

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 7:12 pm

on another note, spc will no doubt spc will come out with a moderate risk tomorrow morning, smack down the middle of the slight risk i imagine... if models keep trending even more bullish, there mite even be a outside chance of high risk, that would be consisdered later tomorrow afternoons update, if that happens. time wil tell.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 7:14 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:on another note, spc will no doubt spc will come out with a moderate risk tomorrow morning, smack down the middle of the slight risk i imagine... if models keep trending even more bullish, there mite even be a outside chance of high risk, that would be consisdered later tomorrow afternoons update, if that happens. time wil tell.

Bruce, whats your take on how much this will effect Mid/East Tn??

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 7:15 pm

Probated Tom wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:its unreal that this topic is getting ignored...maybe cause lots of folks dont think it effects east tn... or everyone still has winter on their mind...this threat is real and its getting in imminent time period... there have been mets over on american weather comparing this setup as like in january 99... and i agree 110 percent . same type dynamic system during dead of winter.. actucally the cape this time may even be a smidge higher... jackson got socked by a ef4 twister that night, killing 10... not that am i close to sayt its going to happen again... but i tell you this much... i hate to use the other forum word, so i wont... but our dear old friend kevin is even getting concerned sneaky

Kevin from tnwx is really getting hyped about this one... that, folks, is when you know something is imminent/big deal type. Of course, it could all bust (has happened before) but if this thing comes close to using its full potential, then we may see a huge, huge outbreak in certain sections of the state.

However, with that said, I think the storms will be real bad over West Tn, but get more linear as it crosses the TN River. So by the time it reaches E. Tn, it will still be bad, but nothing horrendous. But take that as a grain of salt.
i think you have been doing your homework tom. good call.. i just might make you a severe weather specialsits yet

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 7:16 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Probated Tom wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:its unreal that this topic is getting ignored...maybe cause lots of folks dont think it effects east tn... or everyone still has winter on their mind...this threat is real and its getting in imminent time period... there have been mets over on american weather comparing this setup as like in january 99... and i agree 110 percent . same type dynamic system during dead of winter.. actucally the cape this time may even be a smidge higher... jackson got socked by a ef4 twister that night, killing 10... not that am i close to sayt its going to happen again... but i tell you this much... i hate to use the other forum word, so i wont... but our dear old friend kevin is even getting concerned sneaky

Kevin from tnwx is really getting hyped about this one... that, folks, is when you know something is imminent/big deal type. Of course, it could all bust (has happened before) but if this thing comes close to using its full potential, then we may see a huge, huge outbreak in certain sections of the state.

However, with that said, I think the storms will be real bad over West Tn, but get more linear as it crosses the TN River. So by the time it reaches E. Tn, it will still be bad, but nothing horrendous. But take that as a grain of salt.
i think you have been doing your homework tom. good call.. i just might make you a severe weather specialsits yet

I'm smarter than most might think lol.. sometimes I let emotions control my posting though.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 7:18 pm

Probated Tom wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:on another note, spc will no doubt spc will come out with a moderate risk tomorrow morning, smack down the middle of the slight risk i imagine... if models keep trending even more bullish, there mite even be a outside chance of high risk, that would be consisdered later tomorrow afternoons update, if that happens. time wil tell.

Bruce, whats your take on how much this will effect Mid/East Tn??
alot will depend how the lp track, if it can attain a more eastweard push, rather than just race nw. the tornado threat increases over there bud... still cant rule out tornadoes either scenerio

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-21, 7:45 pm

Just thought I'd let you know, Bruce, I've been watching this thread like a hawk. Been quiet cause I don't have anything useful to add to the discussion. But severe weather in the winter worries me. I think it's because it's not expected. But I saw on the National News where Hickory, NC got hit last week with a tornado and those poor people didn't even know it's was coming. I always pass by Hickory on the way to Myrtle Beach and it's really not that far away. It could have been us. Thanks for keeping us posted on the severe weather, Bruce.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 8:11 pm

Homemommy wrote:Just thought I'd let you know, Bruce, I've been watching this thread like a hawk. Been quiet cause I don't have anything useful to add to the discussion. But severe weather in the winter worries me. I think it's because it's not expected. But I saw on the National News where Hickory, NC got hit last week with a tornado and those poor people didn't even know it's was coming. I always pass by Hickory on the way to Myrtle Beach and it's really not that far away. It could have been us. Thanks for keeping us posted on the severe weather, Bruce.
you havent got to thank me moomy, i enjoy doing it... and you make a great point in your post. no doubt, alot of folks will be off guard im affraid if this thing pans out... i have talked to 3 chase teams today out of the alabama area... they are heading up in the morning. they want to set up at earle arkie area... hoping to get into the start of it and catching some late daytime action... they said the best stuff will come after dark... i have had experience in chasing for some years... i am not a professinal by no means... but chasing at night is very difficult... i might even get to hook up with one team as they head towards nashville later. time will tell. i am planning on going to church in the morning, when i get back, its time to go to war... i will do my very best to inform all of you, as this thing heads east... i most llikely wont sleep a wink tonight... im like a little boy on xmas eve night, i know, i am crazy. yak

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 8:22 pm

one last thing as i head off in the wikd blue yonder tonight, the euro was quite concerning, it ejects the energy slower to degree alowing more time the warm fron to get even further north.. also a 997 mb lo over central mo. 18zgfs came in with low little further north but a tad stronger than its 12 brother... i am not trying to scare anbody, but i have had a bad feeling all day that something bad is going to happen... and that being i will say there will be at least one touchdown within a 100 mile radias within memphis... that lower level jet gets screaming and ams up beastly around nightfall... plus cant ignore the upper jet, its looking very eager also... this thing very well may get interesting yall... STAY TUNED

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-21, 8:27 pm

Thanks for keeping us posted on this Bruce, good job man.
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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 8:36 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Thanks for keeping us posted on this Bruce, good job man.
thanks stove... popcorn

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 9:40 pm

the 0z nam is not very good at all folks... holly shit batman... it is discrete super cell city folks. very alarming. it is trending more and more towards the euro my friends.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by skillsweather on 2012-01-21, 9:46 pm

Its winter so I dont see the widespread supercells coming to personally. Although, it is 2012 so I guess its possible.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 9:49 pm

Oh its plum nasty looking.....There will be widespread rotating supercells more than likely



yikes

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-21, 10:01 pm

Looks like mainly a West/Mid Tn event to me. East Tn may, just may, be spared the worst of it.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-21, 10:06 pm

Probated Tom wrote:Looks like mainly a West/Mid Tn event to me. East Tn may, just may, be spared the worst of it.

Yes the worse looks to be out that way...but we also thought that back in April


It should be more of a wind and small hail threat here.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-01-21, 10:44 pm

I have followed weather my whole life and have never seen a situation like this. It is 35 degrees at my house now and in less than 24 hrs there is a tornado outbreak threat. I have many times seen it storm the next day after being cold but nothing like this. Has anyone else ?

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-21, 11:18 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I have followed weather my whole life and have never seen a situation like this. It is 35 degrees at my house now and in less than 24 hrs there is a tornado outbreak threat. I have many times seen it storm the next day after being cold but nothing like this. Has anyone else ?
the closet thing i cn remember was back in january 99. on january 4th that night there was about 3 inches of snow on the ground and 17 degrees... exactly 2 weeks later, a major tornado outbreak hit our area, jackson had a ef4 with 10 fatalaties in madison co alone.

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 2:52 am

MDT RISK TIME BABY



15 hatched TOR


..LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS MEMPHIS TN BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SSWWD ACROSS ERN AR. MODEL
FORECASTS RAPIDLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND
23/00Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINEAR
MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW
MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO
450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A
LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE
. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS
THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN
AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN THE MID-MS
VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING FROM ERN IL SWD INTO WRN KY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME SUGGEST THAT A COOL SFC
INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS
REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN
SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F.










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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-22, 3:27 am

Wow!! Scary stuff. We could all very well be rockin and rollin in TN late today and tonight. Hey Toot. Is this part of a pattern change, and how might this affect the models once it is done and gone? Thanks, Vann. Hope we don't get no tornadoes on the plateau!! yikes
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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 3:30 am

Vanster67 wrote:Wow!! Scary stuff. We could all very well be rockin and rollin in TN late today and tonight. Hey Toot. Is this part of a pattern change, and how might this affect the models once it is done and gone? Thanks, Vann. Hope we don't get no tornadoes on the plateau!! yikes

Yes Vann this will initiate a pattern change to colder with a couple snow events to end winter IMO. Models should also be more consistent after they get rid of this full lattitude cyclone

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-22, 3:46 am

Toot wrote:
Vanster67 wrote:Wow!! Scary stuff. We could all very well be rockin and rollin in TN late today and tonight. Hey Toot. Is this part of a pattern change, and how might this affect the models once it is done and gone? Thanks, Vann. Hope we don't get no tornadoes on the plateau!! yikes

Yes Vann this will initiate a pattern change to colder with a couple snow events to end winter IMO. Models should also be more consistent after they get rid of this full lattitude cyclone
Thanks Toot, as always I appreciate it. Stay safe tomorrow!
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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-22, 7:21 am

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index has been updated as of 6 am today. Now shows South West TN at a 6 and Middle TN at a 4. yikes Temp has risen from 37 to 44 and dew point at 43. all rising.


Last edited by Vanster67 on 2012-01-22, 7:27 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : I had a need...)
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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-22, 8:28 am

Moderate has been extended this am to to I65


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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 2:43 pm


yikes

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

Post by Guest on 2012-01-22, 2:44 pm

Toot, this may be a dumb question, but what do those images represent, and why the 'scared' face??

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Re: Late January warmup with possible severe

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