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Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-15, 8:58 am

The 0z FIM



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Southeastbutter on 2011-12-15, 10:50 am

With the vast amount of weather knowledge I have, (not much at all) it appears the ridge is not wanting to breakdown until close to the end of the year. It looks like some colder temps want to come down, but it doesn't appear to want to hang around very long. (Once again... my knowledge runs about about as deep as the snow on the ground in my back yard)

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-15, 2:46 pm

The 12z GFS and a few ensemble members are still trying to snow on us around Christmas but they are showing a borderline event. Just remember the gfs has been too warm on several storms in the extended...still plenty of time to watch this develop...meanwhile the 12z euro is running popcorn

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Southeastbutter on 2011-12-15, 2:50 pm

I'm curious to see how it looks. I won't be able to see anything on my own until late tonight so I am counting on the forums to keep me up-to-date. It's been quiet all day.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-15, 3:01 pm

Southeastbutter wrote:I'm curious to see how it looks. I won't be able to see anything on my own until late tonight so I am counting on the forums to keep me up-to-date. It's been quiet all day.

I wouldnt pay any attention to the small scale details when a system is past 192 hrs on the gfs due to resolution factors...just know that if a low pressure systems center is in range and is south or east of us on Dec 25th its going to be snowing...Climatology is extremely hard to argue with this late in the year
12zgfs



All that said the models are hard to take serious this far out also

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-15, 3:35 pm

Its really hard to pinpoint anything on the models...there are low pressure systems everywhere and I have to think they are not handling anything past the short range correctly. The nam is trying to get something going in the short range in about 48 hrs...as a matter of fact its snowing decently on alot of Kentucky. If the low were to trend stronger snow will be possible here...I really haven't got much confidence in any solution at this point and am pulling my hair out to try and make heads or tails of anything

gaah

Some of the ensembles are hinting at a full lattitude troff in the extended...I imagine this could be the first signs of a true pattern change if they end up being correct



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-16, 10:45 am

Uh guys, 6z GFS has a snow storm on the 26th.





12z better not lose it.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-16, 12:43 pm

That's been on and off as a big snow maker since it was at about hour 348. I think we can expect a storm in that time frame, but have to hope for a good track and cold air to work with.

That shows a rain to snow event, which can work out but rarely does unless upslope kicks in hard. GFS very often shows too much moisture after fronts pass but occasionally gets it right and the snow actually comes.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-16, 12:47 pm

That said, MRX has stuck in a 30 percent chance of snow after 9 tonight. It's already down to 40 degrees here with rain falling currently.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-16, 12:49 pm

Still there on 12z.





Cold chasing moisture for sure but I've not seen the GFS build in that much cold air for that time period or keep a favorable solution for more than a couple of runs until now. Let's hope climo can have a say in this.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-16, 1:35 pm

12z Canadian on board as well.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-16, 3:07 pm

12z Euro keeps the cold air just to the north and west of TN.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Southeastbutter on 2011-12-16, 3:42 pm

The Canadian looked good. I hope the gfs and euro come on board with the colder temperatures. Still a ways out though.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Guest on 2011-12-16, 3:50 pm

Southeastbutter wrote:The Canadian looked good. I hope the gfs and euro come on board with the colder temperatures. Still a ways out though.

That is key. Still a long ways to go, not even a week from the event yet. Heck, by this time next week, we could be seeing the moisture well to our South, or we could be staring at a blizzard haha. Just never know with events this far away.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-16, 3:58 pm

Not a lot of ensemble support for the 12z GFS solution at around the 11 day range.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Homemommy on 2011-12-16, 5:29 pm

How we looking, boys? According to Channel 6, they got us K-towners at 59* on Wed and 54* on Thurs. That cold air better hurry....

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-16, 6:23 pm

Homemommy wrote:How we looking, boys? According to Channel 6, they got us K-towners at 59* on Wed and 54* on Thurs. That cold air better hurry....

Pretty good ensemble agreement of a nice trough over the eastern U.S near Christmas



It looks like the cold will be available if a system were to use it the right way... now the question is can we get a gulf type low and will this cold become sustained? Climatology will support both and thats always a good thing but now we have to get a couple of more ducks in a row

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-16, 11:03 pm

well hate to say this my friends, if i dont start to see some improvement starting 3 weeks from tonight on this shitty pattern... i am calling WIINTER CANCEL. i hope and sure as hell hope i am wrong. we have some strong opponents right now thats against us... the freakiing polar vortex is about over in greenland... the ridge in the southeast keeps shooting its ass with steroids... if this crap keeps up bring on the severe weather... maybe we can go balls to the walls with severe late wiinter or early spring... well yall have a good night and lets just hope this shit changes for the better.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-16, 11:07 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:well hate to say this my friends, if i dont start to see some improvement starting 3 weeks from tonight on this shitty pattern... i am calling WIINTER CANCEL. i hope and sure as hell hope i am wrong. we have some strong opponents right now thats against us... the freakiing polar vortex is about over in greenland... the ridge in the southeast keeps shooting its ass with steroids... if this crap keeps up bring on the severe weather... maybe we can go balls to the walls with severe late wiinter or early spring... well yall have a good night and lets just hope this shit changes for the better.
Easy Bruce, it is only December...

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-16, 11:20 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:well hate to say this my friends, if i dont start to see some improvement starting 3 weeks from tonight on this shitty pattern... i am calling WIINTER CANCEL. i hope and sure as hell hope i am wrong. we have some strong opponents right now thats against us... the freakiing polar vortex is about over in greenland... the ridge in the southeast keeps shooting its ass with steroids... if this crap keeps up bring on the severe weather... maybe we can go balls to the walls with severe late wiinter or early spring... well yall have a good night and lets just hope this shit changes for the better.
wow


This coming from a person who has already had more snow than chicago and calendar winter hasnt even began yet pffft


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-17, 9:42 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-17, 12:14 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:... if this crap keeps up bring on the severe weather... maybe we can go balls to the walls with severe late wiinter or early spring... well yall have a good night and lets just hope this shit changes for the better.

This post has inspired me to compile my video footage of the super cell/tornado outbreak from last spring and post it here. No shit, that series of storms changed my perception of severe weather and I want to share my personal experience. Hint: I'm not as much of a fan after experiencing that one unfold.

If nothing else, there is some interesting footage of Todd Howell's live coverage of the event as cells were bearing down on east TN.



Last edited by Stovepipe on 2011-12-17, 3:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-17, 2:51 am

stove i would loveeee to see that!

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-17, 3:04 am

Reb wrote:stove i would loveeee to see that!

Video is done, youtube is taking forever to process. Will post in Severe Weather forum when it finishes processing.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-17, 3:17 am

sweet!!!!! thanks stove. you wouldn't happen to have any footage of snow coverage from recent years, would you?

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-17, 8:46 am

Good Morning...Im sure liking what im seeing on several models this morning. The GFS..CMC..NOGAPS and several of there ensembles are developing a gulf low on the tail end of the storm that comes through around the 20th. The storm around the 20th brings a powerful cold front thru the area and then cyclogenesis starts to take place along this cold front down near the gulf. This will set up a favorable storm track for the possibility of snow in several locales across the southeast and East Tennessee has the potential to be in the cold sector of the precip shield. Looks like models are starting to converge on a miller a type storm on Christmas Eve... it's about a week out at this point and there is plenty of time for good or bad trends...so this still should be taken lightly at this point but there has definately been some clarity supplied by the 0 and 6z run of the models this morning.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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