Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
+19
Snowmania
jmundie
Vanster67
Homemommy
snowman72
Southeastbutter
snowdog
Mrgolf
jazzy
Math/Met
Jed33
Reb
Stovepipe
joereb1
tennessee storm09
John1122
skillsweather
Toot
Adam2014
23 posters
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Skillsweather wrote:Hey lets all help out and grab it and take whatever we can get to help us out of this lame pattern. No one handers use both your hands and your feet too if you can!
Funny, I said the same thing to my wife the other night.
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Euro... good for some
Southeastbutter- Banned
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Reb- Admin
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Location : Maryville, TN
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
The gfs has been horrible but believe it or not the GFS is in line with what i think may happen to some degree..It may be catching on now that it has sampled the shortwave nicely..but if you read my blog you know that im expecting a strong cold front to march through and down into the gulf. This cold front will be attached to the system that has blizzard warnings in effect out in the midwest right now.
Along this boundary down in the gulf im expecting another low to form. This low pressure system will have cold air to its west to work with as it rides up this boundary. It will likely produce some snow in the cold sector but who gets the snow will depend on the exact strength and track of this system. The gfs could be close because the CMC has showed this off and on several runs...but I will caution you.. it could also be further south and east providing a near miss or a glancing blow. Still about 5-6 days out so there will be many more model runs and the outcome is in no way set in stone.
Along this boundary down in the gulf im expecting another low to form. This low pressure system will have cold air to its west to work with as it rides up this boundary. It will likely produce some snow in the cold sector but who gets the snow will depend on the exact strength and track of this system. The gfs could be close because the CMC has showed this off and on several runs...but I will caution you.. it could also be further south and east providing a near miss or a glancing blow. Still about 5-6 days out so there will be many more model runs and the outcome is in no way set in stone.
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
This has been on and off since hour 348 when I first saw it. At that time it was running 3-5 inches along the Alabama/TN/GA borders with 1-4 of most of the rest of Middle and East Tennessee.
Sadly, the GFS has been so bad this year that even it's relative consistency in the longer ranges makes me very doubtful that we see this solution again tomorrow.
Sadly, the GFS has been so bad this year that even it's relative consistency in the longer ranges makes me very doubtful that we see this solution again tomorrow.
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
nah stove. too soon would be if someone were to make one of these:
Reb- Admin
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Location : Maryville, TN
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
John1122 wrote:This has been on and off since hour 348 when I first saw it. At that time it was running 3-5 inches along the Alabama/TN/GA borders with 1-4 of most of the rest of Middle and East Tennessee.
Sadly, the GFS has been so bad this year that even it's relative consistency in the longer ranges makes me very doubtful that we see this solution again tomorrow.
Well the very fact that you've seen this since 348 is encouraging to me. I'm sure it's a long shot but we are closing in on a week now so at least it's something. I'll take what I can get right now. You know it's pretty dismal when even the DGEX doesn't provide your much needed snow porn at this point in the year.
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Honestly with the last two winters I'd be much more excited about this kind of potential. But all the climate signals were in place for winter weather potential the past couple of years.
Right now we are fighting several that make wintry weather less likely and things always have to come together near perfectly to get significant snow in a good portion of Tennessee.
Right now we are fighting several that make wintry weather less likely and things always have to come together near perfectly to get significant snow in a good portion of Tennessee.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Reb wrote:nah stove. too soon would be if someone were to make one of these:
hahahahah
Southeastbutter- Banned
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Join date : 2011-12-14
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Joe Bastardi's twitter feed shows him saying we might be in for some snow around the 26th or 27th. Bring it. Christmas would be nice, but just some decent snow sometime soon will do me just fine
Vanster67- Admin
- Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Well...the gfs has ensemble and canadian model support this morning so it looks like we officially have something to track. Miller A time hopefully
Two snows around Christmas in a row??? with all these people cliff diving over the pattern and cancelling winter already.. say it aint so
And no...I am not calling for a white Christmas at this point
Two snows around Christmas in a row??? with all these people cliff diving over the pattern and cancelling winter already.. say it aint so
And no...I am not calling for a white Christmas at this point
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:The world famous batshit crazy 6zdgex
lol... lets go DGEX!!!! Bring 'er on in, baby! lolz...
I wonder if mets even take a second to even look at the Dgex? Or do they just leave it alone and never take a peek at it?
Guest- Guest
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Stovepipe wrote:Time to start a thread for this storm me thinks.
Same here. The models have kept the storm/storms over the weekend. Even if this thing does not pan out the way its being modeled as of now, it should still be interesting to watch.
Guest- Guest
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Stovepipe wrote:
Too soon?
You know you've made it when you get gif love from stove
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
jmundie wrote:Stovepipe wrote:
Too soon?
You know you've made it when you get gif love from stove
Good to see ya hear Bro!!
Guest- Guest
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
jmundie wrote:Stovepipe wrote:
Too soon?
You know you've made it when you get gif love from stove
Welcome stranger! That pic was made last season haha. I was itching to bust it out again this year.
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Good to see ya JMUNDIE. Saw the firing squad out elsewhere this A.M. Liked the Euro post tho!
Vanster67- Admin
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Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
Stovepipe wrote:jmundie wrote:Stovepipe wrote:
Too soon?
You know you've made it when you get gif love from stove
Welcome stranger! That pic was made last season haha. I was itching to bust it out again this year.
I don't know how I missed it last year. Lol
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
welcome aboard mundie, glad to have you over here man. post away brother.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion
I thought I would be brave and peek into the long range. Bad idea. Don't look. Imagine Rosie O'Donnell in a thong and you have a pretty accurate image. Continued heavily positive AO with no blocking in sight. I need to go throw up.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
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Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
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