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Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2011-12-09, 2:40 am

Yea, Since this is out so far and that the ground really isn't all too cold just yet I doubt that plays out. Most of the time if everything goes right these maps this far out play out to like half of the precip that's being showed. I would take that cause that would be like 1inch for me. But I really think we are still to early in the season so this looks like a 1-2inch snow in south Tennessee flurries north and 2-3 in eastern Tennessee.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-09, 9:04 am

The GFS at 240 hours out is at best useful for seeing where the basic components of systems could be on a national scale. Drilling down to QPF within the state at that hour will only drive you batty.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-09, 2:30 pm

yeah these GFS fantasy storms are teasing everyone Razz ill bite when they get in the 180-200 range

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-09, 5:28 pm

The GFS isn't being all that great this year. In the last 36 hours it's pretty much went "torch, snowstorm, torch, snowstorm, torch" for the 12-18 to 12-23 period.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-09, 6:41 pm

John1122 wrote:The GFS isn't being all that great this year. In the last 36 hours it's pretty much went "torch, snowstorm, torch, snowstorm, torch" for the 12-18 to 12-23 period.


Yeah...I dont recall models ever being so bad in the extended range...the gfs is bad but the euro has been truly terrible. I dont know what they're having trouble with but there is certainly something going on that is giving them a fit!!

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-09, 8:05 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:The GFS isn't being all that great this year. In the last 36 hours it's pretty much went "torch, snowstorm, torch, snowstorm, torch" for the 12-18 to 12-23 period.


Yeah...I dont recall models ever being so bad in the extended range...the gfs is bad but the euro has been truly terrible. I dont know what they're having trouble with but there is certainly something going on that is giving them a fit!!

One has to wonder if climate change is starting to cause some glaring confusion in the models. Until we can better quantify how we've affected this planet in the past 200 it's going to be difficult to predict what is ahead, especially in the near term.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-09, 8:10 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:The GFS isn't being all that great this year. In the last 36 hours it's pretty much went "torch, snowstorm, torch, snowstorm, torch" for the 12-18 to 12-23 period.


Yeah...I dont recall models ever being so bad in the extended range...the gfs is bad but the euro has been truly terrible. I dont know what they're having trouble with but there is certainly something going on that is giving them a fit!!

One has to wonder if climate change is starting to cause some glaring confusion in the models. Until we can better quantify how we've affected this planet in the past 200 it's going to be difficult to predict what is ahead, especially in the near term.
im thinking it means crazy strong storms...and with the cold that is set up in Alaska/Canada...look out

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2011-12-09, 10:55 pm

Hello everyone, I recently moved to E TN, specifically, Morristown.
I am very excited about this forum, and weather around these parts. I moved
From southern middle TN and before that, grew up around WTN
And N MS. I don't know a lot about E TN weather and the patterns around
Here, but from what I can gather there are more micro climates
Than any other part of the state, and maybe even the southeastern U.S.
As far as this winter goes, I do also think we will have a couple
Decent shots at accumulating snow, even in the lowest valleys. I live
On a ridge at about 1450 ft. elevation, and have already
Experienced the effects of temp. Inversions here. Very different than
Anything I've experienced. So I'm here to learn and maybe able
to contribute something along the way. I look forward to meeting you
All.
Jason

li

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-09, 11:02 pm

Welcome Jason! East TN is definitely a complex area to forecast. You have the plateau, foothills, north/central/southern valley, mountains, etc. Feel free to ask any questions along the way so you can learn as much as possible.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Math/Met on 2011-12-09, 11:34 pm

Jed33 wrote:Hello everyone, I recently moved to E TN, specifically, Morristown.
I am very excited about this forum, and weather around these parts. I moved
From southern middle TN and before that, grew up around WTN
And N MS. I don't know a lot about E TN weather and the patterns around
Here, but from what I can gather there are more micro climates
Than any other part of the state, and maybe even the southeastern U.S.
As far as this winter goes, I do also think we will have a couple
Decent shots at accumulating snow, even in the lowest valleys. I live
On a ridge at about 1450 ft. elevation, and have already
Experienced the effects of temp. Inversions here. Very different than
Anything I've experienced. So I'm here to learn and maybe able
to contribute something along the way. I look forward to meeting you
All.
Jason

li

Welcome to the area and the forum. The good news is, you should statistically have a better chance of snow than the areas you used to live in. A lot of people around here (including me) like to complain about not getting much snow, but the truth is we don’t do too bad compared to most of the Southeast.

As for microclimates, you will get used to them after awhile. One thing to remember for this winter is this; a southeasterly flow is the enemy if you want frozen precipitation. The downsloping and adiabatic warming can kill the chances of a winter storm if there is a strong southeasterly flow at or below the mountain level.

On a side note, if you like high wind events then I highly recommend experiencing a mountain wave event in this area. They are my personal favorite.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 12:41 am

the oz gfs loooks very icy for west tn .for late next weekend into monday week. artic air comes crashing with a 1042 mb over the upper midwest... but it puts its brakes on just beyond the cumberland plataue, because of the ole se ridge flexing its muscles. its the second piece of energy back to our sw thats going to cause havoc. very intersting setup. by the way the cmc is boarding on with the gfs also. may be time to break out my generator, and get her running.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by jazzy on 2011-12-10, 12:48 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:the oz gfs loooks very icy for west tn .for late next weekend into monday week. artic air comes crashing with a 1042 mb over the upper midwest... but it puts its brakes on just beyond the cumberland plataue, because of the ole se ridge flexing its muscles. its the second piece of energy back to our sw thats going to cause havoc. very intersting setup. by the way the cmc is boarding on with the gfs also. may be time to break out my generator, and get her running.



This is my first time posting. What does that mean for east tn. Rain or a mix bag, lol.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 12:52 am

jazzy wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:the oz gfs loooks very icy for west tn .for late next weekend into monday week. artic air comes crashing with a 1042 mb over the upper midwest... but it puts its brakes on just beyond the cumberland plataue, because of the ole se ridge flexing its muscles. its the second piece of energy back to our sw thats going to cause havoc. very intersting setup. by the way the cmc is boarding on with the gfs also. may be time to break out my generator, and get her running.



This is my first time posting. What does that mean for east tn. Rain or a mix bag, lol.
more likely a good soaking cold rain... the se ridge is putting on the brakes for lp systems to dig down below yall. course that can change.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-10, 2:16 am

I may be seeing it wrong, but it looks like a GLC rolls through and then another storm rolls by with cold chasing moisture. This is the second piece of energy after the GLC.

First frame, above freezing with the main slug of moisture.



3 hours later with the cold air crashing. That light precip in West Tennessee has likely mostly already fallen by the time the 32 line has passed.




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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-10, 2:18 am

It is back to crashing the cold air in and keeping it there for several days with possible light upslope snow showers in East Tennessee in the wake of these storms.

I figure it will be back to torching by 12z tomorrow. I swear it goes from temps in the 60s to temps in the 30s almost from run to run the past several days.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 9:27 am

John1122 wrote:It is back to crashing the cold air in and keeping it there for several days with possible light upslope snow showers in East Tennessee in the wake of these storms.

I figure it will be back to torching by 12z tomorrow. I swear it goes from temps in the 60s to temps in the 30s almost from run to run the past several days.

After the lakes cutter system...the ridge slides off the eastern coast and sets up a very similar situation to that of the last... were a wave of low pressure could form on a quasi-stationary frontal system with access to colder air. This is how i'm expecting it play out anyways.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-10, 9:36 am

Here is the DGEX at that hour



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 1:14 pm

man after looking at todays 12z gfs... its done a complete turn on the big system late next week... i think parts of the midsouth may have to worry more of a severe weather event, than any winter threat as of now... that model didnt bold to well for any winter type precip anytime soon. the se ridge is really flexing its muscles now... we dont get the nao to turn neg anytime and have a neg pna to boot... throw in the se rige, wouldnt suprise me to see some torching slowly taking place. i think at least western half of tennessee may be seeing a severe weather threat down the road. i will keep yall updated.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 1:28 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: the se ridge is really flexing its muscles now...

Lol..um Bruce there is a troff over the eastern US.


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 1:38 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote: the se ridge is really flexing its muscles now...

Lol..um Bruce there is a troff over the eastern US.

going to have to debate with you on that toot... look at the 500mb chart. you can clearly see the trough west... look at hours 192 to almost 26o something... that way fronts getting hung, cause of the ridge in the se.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 1:53 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:going to have to debate with you on that toot... look at the 500mb chart. you can clearly see the trough west...

There is really no debate to it... there is no SE ridge currently...there is a troff over the eastern us and ridge in the west


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 1:57 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:going to have to debate with you on that toot... look at the 500mb chart. you can clearly see the trough west...

There is really no debate to it... there is no SE ridge currently...there is a troff ver the eastern us and ridge in the west

that pic there looks totaly opposite for what i am looking at toot, i am confused.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 2:02 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:that pic there looks totaly opposite for what i am looking at toot, i am confused.

That is a 500mb analyisis of the current pattern...now im confused... are you talking about what the 12zgfs shows in day 10 or the current pattern?

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 2:10 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:that pic there looks totaly opposite for what i am looking at toot, i am confused.

That is a 500mb analyisis of the current pattern...now im confused... are you talking about what the 12zgfs shows in day 10 or the current pattern?
yeah toot, sorry, i was talking about 10 days out or just beyond. i should made myself clearier... i need an adult beverage buddy. lol

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 2:12 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: yeah toot, sorry, i was talking about 10 days out or just beyond. i should made myself clearier... i need an adult beverage buddy. lol

lol...I think we could both use one sorry for the misunderstanding Laughing

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