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Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-10, 2:37 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:that pic there looks totaly opposite for what i am looking at toot, i am confused.

That is a 500mb analyisis of the current pattern...now im confused... are you talking about what the 12zgfs shows in day 10 or the current pattern?
yeah toot, sorry, i was talking about 10 days out or just beyond. i should made myself clearier... i need an adult beverage buddy. lol
I really don't know what to think about anything in long range right now, the models keep changing from everything.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-10, 3:17 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:that pic there looks totaly opposite for what i am looking at toot, i am confused.

That is a 500mb analyisis of the current pattern...now im confused... are you talking about what the 12zgfs shows in day 10 or the current pattern?
yeah toot, sorry, i was talking about 10 days out or just beyond. i should made myself clearier... i need an adult beverage buddy. lol
I really don't know what to think about anything in long range right now, the models keep changing from everything.

My personal bet is for temps 5-10 degrees above normal with the occasional post frontal cool shot. At least until there is some favorable movement in the AO. As of now it may be January or beyond before we see that happen. Shoot, we may not see it happen at all. When you get stuck in these type of patterns they can last a long time, we've been in this one for 3 months now.


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 3:57 pm

It seems there is some confusion concerning verified temp anomalies...Just so everbody is on the same page...here are the temp graphics for the fall season.

In Sep of 2011 we were below normal


In October of 2011 we were below normal


In November of 2011 we averaged out above normal



Anyway you look at it... the variable pattern that has been in place for a while will argue for colder than normal despite teleconnection data that would argue for warmer than normal... meteorlogical fall temperatures will average out below normal here in Tennessee.


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-10, 9:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2011-12-10, 5:12 pm

Cyclo, ive been hearing about that the euro and canadian ensembles are starting to show a potential SSW EVENT in the extended. Thats the first time thats has happened so far in early winter. Wxrisk is starting to harp on the idea. Of course,there would be a lag time. Imo, its a start. Whats your thoughts or anyone else's?

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 5:34 pm

Mrgolf wrote:Cyclo, ive been hearing about that the euro and canadian ensembles are starting to show a potential SSW EVENT in the extended. Thats the first time thats has happened so far in early winter. Wxrisk is starting to harp on the idea. Of course,there would be a lag time. Imo, its a start. Whats your thoughts or anyone else's?

If it happened (and it probably will) the AO/NAO would more than likely go into a negative phase and you would see a less concentrated PV around polar areas...there is no way to tell how long it would last... but it would tend to break apart the PV into many seperate lows.. in turn these lows would spread colder temperatures farther south as is the usual case during winter.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 9:10 pm

Larry Cosgrove is barking also


EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)


There are three key features which may or may not impact the longer term outlook. One, of course, is the S FL/Bahamas heat ridge that is forecast to flatten/weaken somewhat. Another is the potential major winter storm (aided by inflow from the Pacific Ocean subtropical jet stream) slated to affect much of the nation through December 21 (see attached image). But the big player in the system is the cAk motherlode, also known as the Circumpolar Vortex. Many of the numerical models have been suggesting that this feature, until recently stuck near the North Pole, may drift and expand southeastward with a core position near Hudson Bay.

The recent tendency for full-phase, massive bombogenesis cases in the northern Atlantic Ocean might be explained by this drift, which is essentially a case of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation gone insane. So much cold air in a cluster starts to "drip" over the pole into North America. In time breakaway pieces from the gyre drag the core circulation so far south that pure cAk values are able to occupy locations in the U.S. This type of event has happened twice in recent history: December 1976/January 1977 and December 1983. Once established, the dome can last as much as 45 days, destroying temperature records in the process. It is too early to suggest that this scenario might verify, but recent stratospheric temperature anomaly forecasts are turning very warm over Canada in the 11 - 15 day period. If so, southward displacement of the harshest of air mass may be enabled in the days just before Christmas.


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Guest on 2011-12-10, 9:33 pm

Yeah Toot, I've been looking at the Polar Vortex situation as well. Looks like it could be a major, major player for this Winter. If it does as Crosgrove and you have been saying, and what I've been noticing as a general trend of happening, then there will be records broken from this. The cold air mass that is/was over Canada will shift toward us in the continental US and transport that cold air. If I remember correctly from what records/data has shown from the 76/77/83 time frames that were mentioned by Crosgrove, there was major cold air funneled down from Canada, and that may, just may, happen this year once again.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-10, 9:34 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Larry Cosgrove is barking also


Once established, the dome can last as much as 45 days, destroying temperature records in the process. It is too early to suggest that this scenario might verify, but recent stratospheric temperature anomaly forecasts are turning very warm over Canada in the 11 - 15 day period. If so, southward displacement of the harshest of air mass may be enabled in the days just before Christmas.


Wow, I didn't realize the ramifications of this possible circumpolar vortex change could last that long. Very interesting.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-10, 10:37 pm

I saw this posted elsewhere:



Does anyone have a link to where I can find this particular chart? I can't seem to find it on the NCEP site.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-10, 10:40 pm

Stovepipe wrote:I saw this posted elsewhere:


Does anyone have a link to where I can find this particular chart? I can't seem to find it on the NCEP site.

http://policlimate.com/weather/index.html

Its under Northern hemisphere atmospheric oscillations


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-10, 11:19 pm

Awesome, thanks man.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 11:28 pm

folks need to read larry cosgroves latest update blog tonight... read his long range discussion... he is almost saying what dt says in the long range. sounds very very intersting indeed. i hope he is right.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-10, 11:32 pm

i really think that huge storm system the week before xmas is going to kick the pattern change, or at least give it a boost towards a much better pattern... it looks to be a strong lakes cutter... i told toot a week or so ago thats whats going to help flip this pattern in our favor... and i really think its just a matter of time. fun times ahead in late december going into january.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Reb on 2011-12-10, 11:35 pm

yeah if something gives with the current pattern it could get sexy quickly given the cold air that has been built up

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-11, 11:02 am

HELLO negative AO!! Smile

0z gfs Ensemble AO forecast


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-11, 11:20 am

Apparently Joe Bastardi is making the case for pattern change now too, saying major cold air dump coming close to Christmas.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-11, 11:42 am

Stovepipe wrote:Apparently Joe Bastardi is making the case for pattern change now too, saying major cold air dump coming close to Christmas.
were can or were do you go to read joes latest blog stove? n toot, graph looks great. but can we keep that and hold on to that for a while. i just hope it has some staying power, cause im affraid february will start to torch some... at least after valentines day. but lets hope for a block buster january, i would take that in a new york second.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-11, 12:04 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Apparently Joe Bastardi is making the case for pattern change now too, saying major cold air dump coming close to Christmas.


Yeah most models are picking up on the stratospheric warming event at some level...in theory here is how such an event can play out : When fall snowfall is high in Siberia the cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere which is called the stratosphere...this in turn warms the polar regions and displaces the polar vorticies southward to the horse lattitudes. Now this phenomeonon usually happens most every winter but it's normally very gradual and slight.... which usually changes polar temps very slightly and is less noticeable. When it happens suddenly it usually has more drastic effects such as a total reversal of height's and temps in the polar and horse lattitudes. When the polar vortex is warmed or weakened the arctic oscillation will react very sudden and the jet stream is pushed south leading to a colder winter across the eastern United states and Europe.

Conversely... under these conditions the arctic will have a warmer than average winter and most of the US will have a colder than normal winter.

The last major event that I know of was the epic 1985 winter but the most recent one was the winter of 2008 and 2009...here is a video of how that event took place... notice the total reversal of cooling and warming late in the video




Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-11, 12:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-11, 12:42 pm

Great illustration!
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-11, 12:47 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:Apparently Joe Bastardi is making the case for pattern change now too, saying major cold air dump coming close to Christmas.
were can or were do you go to read joes latest blog stove?


They are available here for 16 bucks a month:

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

I don't have a sub, but people on storm2k and americanwx are conveying the content. If I come across the full text I'll post it here.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-11, 5:57 pm

All of this sounds good, but we need it to hold and give us some results.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-11, 5:59 pm

There is a very slight chance of freezing drizzle tonight in the southern valley associated with an inverted troff. Probably nothing... but I thought it was worth a mention.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-11, 6:14 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:There is a very slight chance of freezing drizzle tonight in the southern valley associated with an inverted troff. Probably nothing... but I thought it was worth a mention.
Woo!!!!!!!!!! lol lets get excited! bounce

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-11, 6:36 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Woo!!!!!!!!!! lol lets get excited! bounce

Lol..Adam you're too far west buddy Razz

Patchy light rain and freezing drizzle is possible across NE Georiga... SE Tennessee... Upstate South Carolina... and SW North Carolina after midnight. Temps will fall to near 30 degrees in these areas and a light glaze of ice might form on some roads but especially bridges and overpasses. As of now the precip is expected to be very light but recent satellite and radar data is a little more impressive. If the rain is a little heavier.. more worriesome travel problems may develop



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2011-12-11, 7:15 pm

The timeframe around the 18th is still looking very interesting to me...could totally be all rain but then again it could not. Models are not very reliable right now...so we wont know much until they get through with the mid month lake cutter system. This is also around the timeframe that the gfs ensembles are predicting the AO to go negative.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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