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Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 8:14 am

Yay, it is a redux of the late fall pattern for the US. Day 10 Euro ens shows super fast flow coming from the pac with zonal flow across the the US with a huge polar low sitting WAAAAAAAAAAY up north near Greenland.

Across the northern hemi, pretty much cold and snowy except north America. Fooooooook me. This will go down as the worst winter I've ever lived through in this area.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 8:37 am

Homemommy wrote:I saw on the news this morning that Chicago is having the warmest winter in 80 years. A bunch of states broke like 40 records this week.

Here is an image I saved from last season during the big Tulsa/Chicago storm.



A little bit different this year, eh?
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 4:11 pm

Model battle is brewing. Euro isn't budging on its' day 10 ensemble forecast and the GFS isn't budging either. GFS says troughing in the east while Euro says Zonal flow. Which one will win?

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-02, 4:14 pm

I'm going to wager the Euro wins in a landslide.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 5:10 pm

Yeah most times I'd take the EURO but the Euro OP today looked a little more like the GFS and not like its ensemble brethren.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-02, 5:20 pm

Todd Howell says SW ridge but that the models are flip flopping. And it showed that the cold air in Canada is trying to come down.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-02, 5:38 pm

Where our cold has been for 4 months now.

WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
1153 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 80 BELOW.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-02, 6:05 pm

The euro and gfs mean are both showing troughiness over the east in the extended which is decent agreement .



So thats pretty much agreed on at this point

Now the euro ensembles are holding southern stream energy back in the west which is a known ECMWF bias while the GFS ensembles are phasing a piece of energy with the northern stream around the 12th



If this is true it will the best shot that we have had at a nice winter type system...Its hard to say anything further than that at this point and if one did it would be pure speculation and guesswork. The GFS ensembles have been advertising this for a while now...and its good to see them bring back the higher heights around greenland also but Im like yall... I'll believe it when I see it


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-02, 7:26 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 6:52 pm

Toot wrote:The euro and gfs are both showing a trough in the east at day 10 which is in good agreement with their ensembles

12z Euro Ens. In the west Pac you can see the flow being squeezed between the 588 and 498 contours which results in a screaming north pac jet which leads to zonal flow across the US.



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-02, 7:00 pm

snowdog wrote:
12z Euro Ens. In the west Pac you can see the flow being squeezed between the 588 and 498 contours which results in a screaming north pac jet which leads to zonal flow across the US.



Hmm thats Interesting...I wonder why ewall is so much different...EDIT...Nevermind the ewall is 168-240 mean...so by day 10 the trough has washed out according to the ecm ensembles. It seems the ECMWF is washing the trough out faster than the gfs and that is probably due to its bias of holding energy back in the SW as I mentioned earlier. But I stand corrected on the day 10 euro heights

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-03, 12:04 am

Story on yahoo's front page about how extremely mild and snow free this winter is for the lower 48, while the rest of the Northern Hemisphere gets slammed with extreme cold and snow.

Most places that normally have snow cover are running at 10-20 percent of their yearly totals.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-03, 8:56 am

00z Euro Ens continues to show the Pacific dominating the pattern. Still showing zonal flow in the long range (10 day). GFS still trying to bring a true winter pattern in the 15 day extended but so far this winter it stays in the extended. GFS tries to build a nice -NAO but I don't if that is possible if the Pacific doesn't lighten up.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 2:26 pm

Robert on 12z Euro:

this run is different from GFS in how it handles the western ridge, but its a big change so don't know if its correct with that, which has a huge impact downstream. The GFS wanted to lurch the western ridge north above Alaska and cutoff, so that would be more like what we've been trhough, with the cold air not really able to push down into the eastern US, but the ECMWF holds a major tall, elongated ridge out west, perfect position to force the cold to drop in.
The first close call is what it does with the western wave as it drops down toward Texas around day 5, with cold air and high pressure in the Ohio Valley, pressing south...could be cad there, as well as cold enough for snow in northern Ark, Tn, maybe TN (atleast before a changeover, then changing back over). Meanwhile that races east but by then another s/w is dropping due south with another 1040 high, associated with very cold air, and that makes good progress through the eastern half all the way through the Southeast. The Atlantic ridge could work northwest, thanks to a fujiwara effect of the deep cold vortex around southern Canada and the lakes, and how the western Ridge holds in place, without really cutting off too far north.
By day 10, we have a very good, winter time look, with supressed flow. Don't know if its right, but the models could be reacting to the strong -AO lately, and with Europe warming up around this time, the cold gets redistributed and a neg NAO isn't far off. Again all this could be way off since modeling has been hard this season. We'll have to wait and see (and hope) that it works out similar to this. The change begins fairly soon, around day 5 but the way the pieces fall in place will determine how much cold eventually works south and east and if we end up with a supressed storm track and split flow and -NAO.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 6:39 pm

Snowdog The 12 z euro at 192 is Zonal flow FAIL.....it drops part of the PV into the OH valley which results in a full lat trough evl


It that verifies ITS ON rock on

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-03, 8:29 pm

The 12z Euro Ens looks better but it still looks nothing like the OP. Of course it is a mean of the ensembles so of course it isn't going to be as extreme as the OP but it still doesn't show a huge trough in the east. Also it still shows a screaming PAC jet in the west Pac which I still don't like. But I will say I am becoming more interested and encouraged after todays OP. If it continues on the 00z OP run I expect the ensembles to start showing a deeper trough in the east and come around to the OP. Maybe the Ol Goofus will score one on the Good Doctor this time around.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 8:36 pm

Its the ECMWF bias of holding energy back in the SW....The euro has been wacko for several months (all winter) and is 3rd in global model verification rates....The euro is catching on to the gfs now>>>BOOK IT hurry

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-03, 8:49 pm

Do you have a good model verification link?

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 8:56 pm

snowdog wrote:Do you have a good model verification link?

Try this:

http://daculaweather.com/model_verification.php

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-03, 9:02 pm

i am just not ready to jump on board quite yet... sorry to be a debbie downer, i tend to agree with joe lundberga and brett anderson... saying time there is or even if some blocking occurs next couple of weeks, there wont be enough abundant cold air to tap into to bring down in the eastern parts of the usa... the cold air goes to the other side of the poles... brett even saying 2 thirds of eastern canada is fixing to warm up considerable... so i keep my fingers crossed and model watch still, but i just see in and out stuff far as cold goes.. which translates into some cool rains on the horizon, i hope i am wrong.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 9:04 pm

I totally disagree there is good support for some sustained cold

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 11:52 pm

Hour 348 00z GFS = MOTHER OF GOD
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-03, 11:55 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Hour 348 00z GFS = MOTHER OF GOD
HOLY SHIT, BATMAN

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 11:57 pm

Pretty much the gfs from 4 days onward just gets better and better. Last 4 days are positive pna negative nao if this is right, this could be the beginning of a historic period. I would love to believe it. But I'm gonna stick to worrying about threats inside 6 days.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-04, 12:03 am

Robert:

Folks been waiting on atleast fantasy maps, the GFS delivers. It has beautiful blocking, practically double blocking in the perfect spots on the last few panels. It's something to see if it holds on to it, but obviously so far out chances are it's not exact. I will say the overall evolution of the hemispheric flow makes a lot of sense. Usually an extreme solution in Alaska, then Europe, is followed by a Major High Plains event, a Northeast coast event, then a deep south event. Most of the evolutions of big snows I've studied that had blocking in Winters in Alaska, followed that pattern. So we'll see.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 8:50 pm

The GFS ensembles say its game on as far as the eye can see and they are pretty consistent with each other at such a long range


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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