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Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 8:46 am

Dont look now but the euro and cmc are advertising another snow threat on Valentines day but everything will depend on surface low placement



0z euro snowfall for mid and east TN...west TN also gets thumped





I can haz Miller A? smartass

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-11, 1:02 am

Long range GFS says bring on spring. I guess Bastardi swung and missed again. I think he is 0 for winter.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-11, 6:08 am

snowdog wrote:Long range GFS says bring on spring. I guess Bastardi swung and missed again. I think he is 0 for winter.
yeah, that really caught my attention also snowdog... could get some spring like storms also.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-11, 9:34 am

snowdog wrote:Long range GFS says bring on spring. I guess Bastardi swung and missed again. I think he is 0 for winter.

Im ready for spring after what has been a terrible winter in regards to snowfall. The second half of Febuary does look spring like. That doesnt mean we cant get a freak snowstorm though.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 7:52 pm

Several ensemble members are hinting at a late season and very intense arctic outbreak in the extended


Just sayin!!


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-15, 5:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 7:54 pm

I haven't checked in with Donny in awhile. Wonder what he thinks about all of this.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 8:11 pm

Not sure...would like to here his input though. This looks to be a result of big PNA ridge out west. Have to keep an eye on it

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 5:46 pm

Alot of the ensemble members are not budging from a late season arctic outbreak that is pretty intense


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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-15, 7:48 pm

Ryan Maue says its because the AO is going super negative.

Maybe the storm this weekend gets it started?

UKMET has a negative ao and negative nao at 144



I'd imagine the pv moves down into canada pretty quickly if that holds.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 8:07 pm

It would be great if March ended up cold and blocky due to the NAO/AO being so highly positive most of the winter and now it cant seem to climb no higher than neutral. I guess its possible but not likely.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-19, 6:39 pm

Late season arctic outbreak still on

18z gfs

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-19, 7:03 pm

Toot wrote:Late season arctic outbreak still on

18z gfs
i just was fixing to post that too, nice artic atack on the 18z dude... 522 lines south of us... the system that brings this shot in looks also to bring severe weather also with it

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-19, 9:42 pm

Huh oh is that a arctic outbreak Feb 25th



drool

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-22, 10:47 am

Looks like the Tele's are going to trump the MJO. We FINALLY FINALLY get into a favorable MJO region and the PNA is in the cellar and the NAO is still moderately positive.

We seriously deserve a bad a$$ winter next year after this crap.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-22, 11:00 pm

Don Sutherland's latest, no surprises:

March 2012 Thoughts:

- The La Niña, which peaked at the beginning of February with Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.2°C, will likely weaken steadily during March. It is possible that the ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies could approach or rise above -0.5°C toward the end of March. The increasing frequency of days on which the SOI has been negative indicates a weakening La Niña.

The SOI has been negative the following percentage of days:

December: 3.2%
January: 25.8%
February: 50.0% (through 2/20)

Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF forecast a weakening La Niña during March.

Therefore, the core assumption is that the La Niña will weaken during March and neutral ENSO conditions could develop toward the end of March or perhaps during early April.

- The PDO is likely to remain solidly negative during February. A negative PDO correlates well with a negative PNA. As this winter has seen the PNA average higher than what might have been expected during the strongly negative PDO that has predominated, the March assumption is that the PNA will remain locked in a fairly narrow range close to neutral (-0.5 to +0.5). The overall average could be somewhat negative.

- The stretch of 22 consecutive days on which the AO was negative ended on February 11. Consistent with a number of La Niña cases that featured powerful AO+ regimes in December, particularly 1974-75 and 2006-07, the March AO is likely to be positive for the most part.

The GFS ensemble members show a strongly positive AO entering March. My assumption is an AO that will generally range somewhere between +0.50 to +1.50.

- The MJO is currently in Phase 2. The ensemble guidance brings the MJO to Phase 3 and possibly Phase 4 during the first week of March with some hints of a slowing of its rate of progression and reduction of its amplitude. If so, the MJO could wind up primarily in Phases 4-7 during March.

The composite maps for February based on the above assumptions are as follows:

1. Top Left: North America temperature anomalies
2. Top Right: Europe temperature anomalies
3. Bottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for March (February 20 run)
4. Bottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend



FWIW, the top analog for March was 2011.

An adjustment based on the observed decadal change in temperatures for March would be a somewhat warmer outcome than what is shown for the Central Plains States.

All said, I believe March will likely wind up warmer than normal across much of the eastern United States and eastern Canada, but colder than normal across much of Canada, excluding southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, British Columbia) and Alaska will likely see a return of colder than normal conditions.
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-23, 8:21 am

Sad thing is, there is still plenty of cold air left up in Canada. It still amazes me that we didn't once lock into a period of below normal temps this winter. Definitely a winter for the record books...in a bad way.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-23, 9:35 am

Surely it can't happen two years in a row.

Maybe this year is 49-50, and next year is, well, you know.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-02-23, 5:22 pm

Well, I was bored today, so I got to thinking about this winter and how things have gone. Some of ya'll might think I'm crazy, but here goes. Last summer Old Man Winter and Mr. Heat Miser got together to plan the upcoming winter (11-12). They both agreed that they needed to shake things up a bit after the last two winters, so this is how it went down. The main thing they wanted to do was to make it hard on computer models and forecasters by establishing an early PV in Alaska and filling the pipeline with numerous cutt-off lows and shortwaves. They both laughed and said, this ought to keep them hopping. In addition to getting to blast Alaska with record cold and snow, Old Man Winter got to claim Asia, and later on in January, Europe. Now, Mr. Hear Miser said, what about me, the entire globe can't be cold. So, they both agreed that he could have the lower 48 of the good ole USA, with a couple exceptions. First, Old Man Winter would be able to blast the E. Coast with an Oct. snowstorm, second, he would get to dump a decent snow on NC, extreme N TN, and central VA as a parting gift in late Feb, and the rest of the snows would be scattered to very sparse events. To which, heat miser said, well, Oct. is not really winter anyway, so go ahead, and if that's all I have to give up to have the whole lower 48, then I'm all in. They both shook on the deal they had just made, but Mr. Heat Miser was EXTREMELY reluctant to agree to it, b/c he knew how tricky Old Man Winter could be. In fact he said as he shook his hand, that's all you want, and I can have most of the number 1 nation in the world, the smartest and the brightest, the biggest and the best for the balance of the whole winter? I normally only get to have the extreme southern part of this nation for the winter, and even then sometimes not the whole winter. You're gonna give me this and only ask for those two events, one of which is not even in winter, and the other which won't even last 2 days even in the mountains??? To which Old Man Winter replied, that's right, you heard me. Well, I never thought I'd see the day said Heat Miser. Old Man Winter said well you earned it after two years. So they shook hands and sealed the deal. Just as the two turned their backs and began to walk away, and Mr. Heat Miser was laughing at how he could play up the AL Gore's of the world and the global warmingistas, Old Man Winter laughed and said just remember, sometimes it's easier to give a little one year and take a WHOLE LOT the next year!

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-23, 5:33 pm



Great post, ahahaha!
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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-02-23, 5:50 pm

Lol well I had to have a laugh of some kind as dismal as the winter's been. I sure hope it works that way facepalm

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-23, 7:22 pm

Thanks for the story Jed lol!

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-02-23, 7:49 pm

Lol happy to oblige

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Math/Met on 2012-02-24, 11:21 pm

I took a quick look at the daily climate report for KTRI. For this season, they’ve only reported 1.2 inches of snow. This is 9.0 inches below normal. Last year at the same time, the Tri-Cities airport had 14.3 inches of snow for the season. Pretty much sums up the winter so far.

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-25, 7:08 pm

Winter/Snow

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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-02-26, 7:26 am

lol...have to watch the smokies early in the am tomorrow as the nam is very close to snowing on them. Its very borderline but they always get a little colder than what the nam usually shows..if this simulated radar verifies and temps are just a hair colder the mountains could be looking at a heavy wet snow



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Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

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