Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 2:14 pm

Nearly every year around this timeframe there is usually a snow threat and this year probably wont be any different. The pattern seems to be setting up for such an event so I will go ahead and get a thread started.

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th F360

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th F360

by Guest 2012-01-29, 2:25 pm

Didn't Snowmania say there would be a possible Valentine's snowstorm around a week ago??

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 2:49 pm

Reb wrote: its still Jan...lol

Lol...I know... but on a more serious note it looks like there will be an arctic airmass in place in the eastern U.S with access to the Polar Vortex and the subtropical Jet stream. Then you have the Arctic Oscillation which according to models and current readings will likely be in the tank. The NAO is still heading more negative also and A few models are even developing a blocking anomaly near greenland.

All in all this to my eye looks like the most promising timeframe (Feb10th-15th) with regards to the colder pattern that is evolving. lmao

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 5:06 pm

I have moved all the off topic posts to a thread in random discussion. If you want to continue the off topic disco... there is a thread for it.

Thanks

by **Toot** 2012-01-29, 7:45 pm

This is the 18z GFS ensemble mean for feb 12th...notice the dual blocking anomalies with one in Greenland and one in the gulf of Alaska. This produces a mean eastern trough with access to the polar Vortex near hudson bay and a subtropical Jet stream down south

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th 34ydajb

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th 34ydajb

The 12z euro and cmc ensembles are very similar although there are small differences...they all end up with a deep eastern Trough in this period

by Vanster67 2012-01-30, 8:36 am

How is the possible storm for this time period looking?

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-30, 11:55 am

12z GFS sees something in this time period:

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th Usapcpprstmp2m276c

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-30, 12:56 pm

by Guest 2012-01-30, 1:19 pm

Would be nice to see the 336 hr snowfall forecast happen, but like I said, its '336 hours out'.... LOL

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-30, 1:48 pm

According to that map I'd see around 4 inches. Too bad we can't order and prepay for that right now...sigh.

by Guest 2012-01-30, 1:58 pm

Homemommy wrote:According to that map I'd see around 4 inches. Too bad we can't order and prepay for that right now...sigh.

I hear ya lol.. I'd be getting 6-7 inches from it. There's like a perfect illustration of a dart board/bullseye right over Central Va lol

by **Southeastbutter** 2012-01-30, 4:13 pm

I'm gonna pretend I didn't see that accumulation map... Not only is it 15 days away, it's showing accumulating snow. We will probably end up with 63 degrees and severe weather. Thats my call. Hope I'm wrong.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-30, 11:02 pm

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-30, 11:50 pm

0z GFS is awful.

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th F508f77b

by **Toot** 2012-01-31, 12:15 am

0z Still has that big storm that you posted up above Stove...its a ways out there but around 240 hrs you can see a monstrous gulf low forming. This run it heads off shore missing us but the Cold air will be available during this timeframe.

This low is being depicted by several different models...its way to early for it to really be trackable on the models due to resolution issues.... but the pattern thats being depicted by several ensembles will allow for a gulf type low and the cold air will be available if one should take a favorable path

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-31, 8:23 am

6z GFS is a tad better. Let's hope when the data from the Pacific flights gets ingested into the models that things improve, or at least become more consistent.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-31, 11:58 am

Technically there is snow on Valentines day on the 12z GFS. It's pretty weak sauce but it is snow. Now what, pray tell, is the Euro going to show?

by **Toot** 2012-01-31, 4:08 pm

Ensembles continue to suggest a MUCH colder look with a dual blocking signal of +PNA/-NAO and a active STJ stream look which will have access to the PV near hudson bay if the ensembles are correct.

12zGFS Ensemble mean valid for Feb 12th

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th 15owm4o

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th 15owm4o

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-31, 11:54 pm

0z GFS

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th Usapcpprstmp2m216f

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th Usapcpprstmp2m240hv

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th Usapcpprstmp2m276w

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-01, 8:54 am

I can't seem to find anything of value in either the 0z Euro or 6z GFS.

by **snowdog** 2012-02-01, 9:51 am

They show a couple of days below normal temps and some seasonal temps after that. For this winter, I'd call that a win.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-01, 11:49 am

12z GFS has fantasy flakes at the end. Otherwise more of the same. This one had the RAOB data ingested too I understand.

by **Toot** 2012-02-01, 12:02 pm

This time period is still a little too far out to track anything due to the bad resolution of the models at these hours. At this point were mainly looking at the 500mb pattern

by **jmundie** 2012-02-01, 12:08 pm

Stovepipe wrote:12z GFS has fantasy flakes at the end. Otherwise more of the same. This one had the RAOB data ingested too I understand.

This fantasy storm, just for sheer size and depth, deserves a

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th 69311c75_mother-of-god-super-troopers