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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 7:00 pm

Ravensfan52 wrote:

Its too early for anyone to be going 'all in' on a snowstorm 200 hrs out.

Lol its about 80-90 hrs out facepalm

12zFIM hr 96



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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-24, 7:27 pm

That kind of storm track is normally golden for East tn...

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 7:37 pm

Welcome TriCitiesguy, thanks for joining us!!

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-24, 8:52 pm

When is the last time we had a true southern slider? It seems like those used to produce year in and year out in the 1980s...and then the 90s and 00s seem to usher huge gulf coast bombs, particular the 1990s with the blizzards 93' 96

Or maybe my mind is fleeting

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 9:57 pm

0z NAM has trended a little colder and stronger..its not there yet though. popcorn

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Southeastbutter on 2012-01-24, 10:05 pm

Toot, on the model above, I see a 32 line. Is that the freezing line? If so, isn't it behind the moisture? Please correct me if I am seeing that incorrectly. I want to buy into something happening during this time frame but the cold seems like it's non existent in terms of being a consistent cold showing up on the models. It seems like we are "almost" there so often.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 10:14 pm

Southeastbutter wrote:Toot, on the model above, I see a 32 line. Is that the freezing line? If so, isn't it behind the moisture? Please correct me if I am seeing that incorrectly. I want to buy into something happening during this time frame but the cold seems like it's non existent in terms of being a consistent cold showing up on the models. It seems like we are "almost" there so often.

The fim is a little wacky but its very good with stormtracks. Here is the surface temps for the same hour from the fim. Im not sure if that 32 line is the 850mb temp or 2m temp







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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 10:31 pm

Wow - just got back in from a three hour ordeal. Got rear ended, whiplash, doctor for 2.5 hours and getting my prescription was a nightmare.

Toot - I think you're gonna be wrong here. Obviously, we'll see. We had a storm like this before the last upslope clipper event. There wasn't any snow on the backside because the cold was locked behind the clipper. This time, because of the ridging developing in central Canada, and the vortex over Alaska, there just isn't any cold there to pull down.

I think part of the problem too is that the low pressure is not that strong. If anyone sees snow, it would be far ne tennessee in higher elevations. If this thing bombs, or if the phase occurs earlier ( or later I guess, if the energy stays back in Texas and waits on the second front) then we could see something interesting. Otherwise - it doesn't look hopeful.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 10:42 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot - I think you're gonna be wrong here. Obviously, we'll see. We had a storm like this before the last upslope clipper event. There wasn't any snow on the backside because the cold was locked behind the clipper. This time, because of the ridging developing in central Canada, and the vortex over Alaska, there just isn't any cold there to pull down.


Well see Mundie...Ive put my head out on the chopping block but just this morning we thought we lost the southern stream surface reflection. Now we got a gulf low trending stronger each run. I like were im setting at this point. I guess one could call it Pattern recognition if that same one seen his prediction come to fruit on. Well see popcorn

Oh yeah...Hope you are ok from your mishap yikes

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 1:09 am

The 0z CMC found the colder air at hr 60






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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 1:33 am

Welcome the 0Z Nogaps to the snow party also Smile
Hr 60

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-01-25, 6:18 am

Stovepipe wrote:At first I was like



Then I was like



I see you've met my cousin Nasty. Nasty is as Nasty does. Just got home from work and catching up. You guys are much better at reading these maps than I am but to me it looks like the temps during the storm are upper 30's at best, maybe low 40's. Hope I 'm wrong and it 's colder. Maybe someone can help me out. What am I missing?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Reb on 2012-01-25, 7:41 am

honestly i see no way that we are going to get snow from this...not even looking at this as a threat at all.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 8:28 am

Reb wrote:honestly i see no way that we are going to get snow from this...not even looking at this as a threat at all.

Its a phasing situation the GFS /ECMWF are not phasing the southern stream sw with the Northern stream however the CMC/ NOGAPS are. Not sure which solution is correct but im disappointed the GFS didnt go their way this morning.

6z GFS Northern stream does not pick up the southern stream energy


0zNogaps notice it has a made a full phase of N Stream energy and S stream energy


This could be a sneaky nowcast system as models are horrible with type of phasing setup.

I notice the radar this morning is pretty different than what the NAM/WRF are saying as precip is already running into cold air and that was not modled.


Some phasing seems to already be happening

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-25, 7:32 pm

Anyone willing to close the books on this snow threat??? It was at least trackable with a few model scores at one point in time...it really shows how good the pros are. I saw no met in my area even mention the possibility of such a storm, nor did I see any of the internet mets jump on this.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-25, 7:41 pm

I am willing to call it off and start getting my spring things ready

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-25, 7:54 pm

TriCitiesguy wrote:Anyone willing to close the books on this snow threat??? It was at least trackable with a few model scores at one point in time...it really shows how good the pros are. I saw no met in my area even mention the possibility of such a storm, nor did I see any of the internet mets jump on this.

The books have been closed on this "threat" for a while. There was a point several days back where it seemed possible something could happen, but even if there is a phase, there isn't enough cold air available for anything of note to occur.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 7:57 pm

TriCitiesguy wrote:Anyone willing to close the books on this snow threat??? It was at least trackable with a few model scores at one point in time...it really shows how good the pros are. I saw no met in my area even mention the possibility of such a storm, nor did I see any of the internet mets jump on this.

Im still interested in the phasing going on at 500mb and radar OBS but the threat I was referring to above has lost any model support that it once had. Just a FYI: we talk about weather possibilities here that you want see or here on your local or regular wx program(s).

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-25, 8:00 pm

I will have to agree with u Toot and a good forum it is too.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-25, 8:33 pm

Toot.. you were 2-0.. are you now conceding 2-1?? Snowmania, last I checked/talked to him, was still following the Valentines Day snowstorm special. He was also wanting to know when his suspension could end so he could introduce an April blizzard thread to the site as well.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-25, 8:35 pm

snowman72 wrote:I will have to agree with u Toot and a good forum it is too.

Snowman, please do me, and all of us a favor.. please don't disappear after the official end of Winter from the forums. You always disappeared from tnwx at the end of Winter, and we missed you. Don't worry about whether or not to ask so-called 'silly questions'... there are no silly questions in my, or any others, books, so long as they are actual questions and not questions of accusation or trolling, which you definitely are not.

That is all... lol

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 9:01 pm

Biscuits n' Gravy wrote:Toot.. you were 2-0.. are you now conceding 2-1??
Concede is not in my vocabulary but when the fat lady sings you can give me that loss. I will take it like a man. Very Happy



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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-25, 9:05 pm

Toots, My weather mets usually cover storms withing 60-100 hours. I understand they must manage expectations but they also usually give some kind of guidance in the ext forecast. And guys like Bastardi, Huffman, DS will jump a week out...didnt hear a peep from most of those guys

Agree Mundie, this was never really a threat for me either

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 9:17 pm

TriCitiesguy wrote:Toots, My weather mets usually cover storms withing 60-100 hours.

That's swell...I try and cover hrs 0-240 here. I dont follow anybody its all my thoughts and opinions. smoke Im not really sure what you are getting at?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-25, 9:20 pm

yeah i know toot, de nada?

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