WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Early FEB snow threat

Page 6 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 9:24 pm

TriCitiesguy wrote: de nada?

English?

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 10:34 pm

Look how far south the upper low is from the surface low.



This system has my eyes glued to observational data.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-25, 10:37 pm

What are u thinking Toot?

snowman72
Founding Member

Posts : 98
Join date : 2011-12-09
Age : 45
Location : foothills of the Smokies (Walland)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-25, 10:41 pm

snowman72 wrote:What are u thinking Toot?

Im not sure what to think its been snowing around the KY OH border off and on all day... no computer models showed that...im pretty sure the models dont have anykind of hold on the outcome of this.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-25, 10:43 pm

Sounds to me like mother nature has a mind of her own, and she is screwing with everyone else's.

snowman72
Founding Member

Posts : 98
Join date : 2011-12-09
Age : 45
Location : foothills of the Smokies (Walland)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-26, 1:10 am

0z Canadian saying GAME ON hr 36



Most models are obviously too warm with 850's just going by radar and how warm models initialized...I seen the 0z nam also trended colder. Its still going to be a very close situation after the warm sector rain moves through. Some places may change to snow very quickly while others never change at all. This is all depending how upper level energy is handled. I seem to be the only one honking the horn on this one. Thats not a position I like to be in but it is what it is sneaky This is a sneaky system and it may never even snow in TN...its gonna be a very close situation that may end up missing us to the north. One things for sure models havent a clue either smoke


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-26, 1:31 am; edited 2 times in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-26, 1:15 am

Nice!

rock on
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-01-26, 5:43 am

Not putting any faith into extended forecasts past say, oh, 6 hours but Inaccuweather is seeing something on their models for Chatty on Feb. 8. They have us down for a high of 42 with rain to snow and falling temps.

Toot, is this roughly the time frame you just posted? Just got home and can't tell from all the maps which is showing snow.

Thanks

_________________
Sincerely from the filthy one,


Grandpa Nasty (formerly Uncle Nasty)
avatar
Grandpa Nasty
Founding Member

Posts : 189
Join date : 2012-01-09
Location : Chattanooga, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-01-26, 7:32 am

Toot wrote:
TriCitiesguy wrote: de nada?

English?
Lol De nada means your welcome in spanish.

_________________
GO VOLS!!!
avatar
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 21
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-26, 7:48 am

Well, I must say this!! The models, and this winter (or serious LACK of) puke blows sick nasty chunks!!!. If we ever get a 2 day (48 hr) period of below freezing Temps cold I'm gona rent a fricking SNOW MAKING machine and have at it!!!.. The hell with the polar jet, and all. I'll make my own Daggone Snow potstir pffft
avatar
Vanster67
Admin

Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 50
Location : Monterey, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-01-26, 8:03 am

Vanster67 wrote:Well, I must say this!! The models, and this winter (or serious LACK of) puke blows sick nasty chunks!!!. If we ever get a 2 day (48 hr) period of below freezing Temps cold I'm gona rent a fricking SNOW MAKING machine and have at it!!!.. The hell with the polar jet, and all. I'll make my own Daggone Snow potstir pffft
Thats the way to go lol, now we just have to get some freezing temperatures lol.

_________________
GO VOLS!!!
avatar
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 21
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-26, 8:17 am

Uncle Nasty wrote:
Toot, is this roughly the time frame you just posted? Just got home and can't tell from all the maps which is showing snow.

Thanks

Right now im still tracking the current system for a quick shot of snow after the rain but its more likely up into KY I think. Its a borderline situation that could go either way here and we know how those usually work out.

Adam2014 wrote:Lol De nada means your welcome in spanish.

De Nada can have several meanings according to what other words you put with it...taken literally it means "of nothing". But ya most of the time when people say it its "you're welcome"...but the poster had a question mark behind it and I knew "De Nada" was not a question lmao

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-26, 9:47 am

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-26, 10:04 am

de nada also means "for nothing"

The meaning is the same as "your welcome" or "no big deal"

Kinda how Me Llamo Justin literally translated means "I call myself Justin" but when people tell you what it means, they say it means "my name is justin"

NAM trended a little colder and with more of a phase, but still appears no dice for anyone south of louisville.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-26, 1:51 pm

I see the thread title changed. Its not here, its in Damn Alaska!!!!! gaah
avatar
Vanster67
Admin

Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 50
Location : Monterey, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-26, 3:05 pm

Euro past 168 is interesting looking.

But we've been down this road before.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-26, 3:37 pm

jmundie wrote:Euro past 168 is interesting looking.

But we've been down this road before.

That is one very deep oddly shaped trough in the east at 240.

Is that the result of the strongly positive PNA that all models are showing for that time period?

popcorn
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-26, 3:54 pm

MRX has put a 20 percent chance of snow in my forecast for Saturday morning and another 20 percent chance for Sunday night.

Apparently the short wave dropping through on Saturday morning is going to be enough to spark a bit of snow shower activity. This year I'll take every flake I can get.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Southeastbutter on 2012-01-26, 3:57 pm

Local mets have put a 100% chance of snow in my forecast for tonight. By snow I mean rain, and by 100% I mean 1000%.

Southeastbutter
Founding Member

Posts : 33
Join date : 2011-12-14

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Southeastbutter on 2012-01-26, 3:57 pm

Southeastbutter wrote:Local mets have put a 100% chance of snow in my forecast for tonight. By snow I mean rain, and by 100% I mean 1000%.

Sorry, this isn't appropriate for this thread, I realize this. facepalm

Southeastbutter
Founding Member

Posts : 33
Join date : 2011-12-14

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-26, 4:05 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
jmundie wrote:Euro past 168 is interesting looking.

But we've been down this road before.

That is one very deep oddly shaped trough in the east at 240.

Is that the result of the strongly positive PNA that all models are showing for that time period?

popcorn

It's almost like the pna ridge is leaning so much it wants to cut off the trough that develops... Like a huge mild piece of the pv.

Surely if that verifies - it would be colder. I doubt it verifies though.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-26, 4:11 pm

The Euro and GFS are wildly different on these runs. At this point I'll take chaos as opposed to agreement on something bad.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-26, 5:15 pm

John1122 wrote:MRX has put a 20 percent chance of snow in my forecast for Saturday morning and another 20 percent chance for Sunday night.

Apparently the short wave dropping through on Saturday morning is going to be enough to spark a bit of snow shower activity. This year I'll take every flake I can get.

What a god awful mess we have had for winter so far and trying to use the models has become almost useless. I just wonder whats causing the mass confusion on the models and the spring or fall like weather most of this winter. Most of the trees are now showing signs of budding and I imagine the lillies and tulips will start popping up any day now. All this is at least a month early if not longer facepalm


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-26, 5:51 pm

I believe models usually try to trend back towards climo in the longer ranges. That's why we keep seeing colder weather in the long range that never really verifies. We are in an anomalous pattern and they just take a long time to change. Last year it was a cold pattern and it stayed in place from Dec-February. This year it just happens to be a warm rut we are stuck in. Last year models kept trying to warm things too quickly. This year they've tried to cool them off too quckly.

I will say this, if nothing else happens the rest of winter this will be the least snowy winter of my lifetime in my location, possibly the least snowy winter ever as I've only had about 2.5 inches total on the year.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-26, 8:42 pm

Did some posts disappear?

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum