Early FEB snow threat
+14
Reb
Grandpa Nasty
Southeastbutter
Homemommy
Adam2014
jmundie
skillsweather
John1122
ballpark
Snowmania
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
snowman72
Toot
18 posters
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Re: Early FEB snow threat
The 0z Canadian is very different also
With that said it looks pretty strange and messy
With that said it looks pretty strange and messy
Re: Early FEB snow threat
the oz suites last night keep on slowly increasing the instability for my area anyways... this is starting to lean more towards a severe threat than a winter threat, at least for the western midsouth region... i will have my eyes on this system this weekend... updates if needed.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Early FEB snow threat
12z Euro looking better than last night's run. It has a very close call on the 8th. The gulf is also getting stirred up at hour 240.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
I wish it were true, but I swear for the last week the Euro has been about to show something at 240 that never quite happens.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Early FEB snow threat
This is the first time a cold blast has made it inside the 8-10 day timeframe on the euro in a while.
I have noticed something else this year, switches to cold generally pop up unexpectedly in the 5-7 day time frame. Several of the gfs ensemble members have been showing a more potent cold snap by early next week... And the op keeps dropping these 1040-1050 high pressures down with very little cold (which doesn't make much sense)
These damn cut off lows are giving the models fits because figuring out where they go is so difficult.
I have noticed something else this year, switches to cold generally pop up unexpectedly in the 5-7 day time frame. Several of the gfs ensemble members have been showing a more potent cold snap by early next week... And the op keeps dropping these 1040-1050 high pressures down with very little cold (which doesn't make much sense)
These damn cut off lows are giving the models fits because figuring out where they go is so difficult.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Early FEB snow threat
The ensembles have a very strange stormtrack (to me) of the midwest low as most of them track the storm center across the state of TN where they then transfer energy to the coastal carolinas in Miller B fashion.
If this is correct...you might as well get you a boat and paddles ready... then as it transfers to the coastal areas some folks in east TN may end up seeing some wrap around snow flurries but this threat looks pretty much dead other than that.
If this is correct...you might as well get you a boat and paddles ready... then as it transfers to the coastal areas some folks in east TN may end up seeing some wrap around snow flurries but this threat looks pretty much dead other than that.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Toot wrote:The ensembles have a very strange stormtrack (to me) of the midwest low as most of them track the storm center across the state of TN where they then transfer energy to the coastal carolinas in Miller B fashion.
If this is correct...you might as well get you a boat and paddles ready... then as it transfers to the coastal areas some folks in east TN may end up seeing some wrap around snow flurries but this threat looks pretty much dead other than that.
It is quite strange. It like what we would see with a southern slider, except 600 miles north. The high pressure complex in the lakes is making sure this sucker doesn't cut up through the lakes
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Early FEB snow threat
He is crazy alright. The cold is so shallow it is already tucking tail and running back north if you look to the west of us. It doesn't even stay long enough to have a cup of coffee.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
Vanster67- Admin
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Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
Spring lovers win either way today. 6 more weeks of this winter is basically spring.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
It's like I'm living the same day over and over and over. Wake up, check models, face palm, rinse/repeat.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Stovepipe wrote:Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
It's like I'm living the same day over and over and over. Wake up, check models, face palm, rinse/repeat.
At least the 12z GFS is bringing the cold starting just before truncation.
I'll take it at this point.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: Early FEB snow threat
"Then put your little hand in mine
There ain't no hill or mountain we can't climb"
There's that music again gaaahhh.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
I don't know, Van. It's pretty hush hush right now, but word on the street is that Phil fell off the wagon. Sources are saying that his groundhog friends are gonna stage an intervention soon.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Just saw that the lower 48 has the lowest snow cover for February 2nd since snow cover recording keeping began. Currently only 19 percent of the lower 48 has snow cover. Last year at this time it was 59 percent.
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Homemommy wrote:Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen.
I don't know, Van. It's pretty hush hush right now, but word on the street is that Phil fell off the wagon. Sources are saying that his groundhog friends are gonna stage an intervention soon.
Oooh, tough crowd. I know I'm not supposed to post off topic stuff here, but everyone seems so sad. Trying to cheer ya'll up.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Stovepipe wrote:
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Those damn German Kamakaze's!!!
Re: Early FEB snow threat
Man.... this storm and its track are still not very clear and the 12z CMC/NAM/NOGAPS are suggesting some wrap around snow showers in east TN around hr 84 but this seems to be very light...it will be interesting to see how models react when this system exits.
Re: Early FEB snow threat
The 0z CMC is a damn snowstorm in eastern TN and western NC. But its also an outlier at this point as the GFS/Euro completely shears this storm out over the mid eastern part of the conus.
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