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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-31, 12:55 am

The 0z Canadian is very different also






With that said it looks pretty strange and messy

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-31, 5:40 am

the oz suites last night keep on slowly increasing the instability for my area anyways... this is starting to lean more towards a severe threat than a winter threat, at least for the western midsouth region... i will have my eyes on this system this weekend... updates if needed.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 2:18 pm

12z Euro looking better than last night's run. It has a very close call on the 8th. The gulf is also getting stirred up at hour 240.
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-31, 2:30 pm

I wish it were true, but I swear for the last week the Euro has been about to show something at 240 that never quite happens.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-31, 3:26 pm

This is the first time a cold blast has made it inside the 8-10 day timeframe on the euro in a while.

I have noticed something else this year, switches to cold generally pop up unexpectedly in the 5-7 day time frame. Several of the gfs ensemble members have been showing a more potent cold snap by early next week... And the op keeps dropping these 1040-1050 high pressures down with very little cold (which doesn't make much sense)

These damn cut off lows are giving the models fits because figuring out where they go is so difficult.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-31, 5:28 pm

The ensembles have a very strange stormtrack (to me) of the midwest low as most of them track the storm center across the state of TN where they then transfer energy to the coastal carolinas in Miller B fashion.

If this is correct...you might as well get you a boat and paddles ready... then as it transfers to the coastal areas some folks in east TN may end up seeing some wrap around snow flurries but this threat looks pretty much dead other than that.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-31, 6:20 pm

Toot wrote:The ensembles have a very strange stormtrack (to me) of the midwest low as most of them track the storm center across the state of TN where they then transfer energy to the coastal carolinas in Miller B fashion.

If this is correct...you might as well get you a boat and paddles ready... then as it transfers to the coastal areas some folks in east TN may end up seeing some wrap around snow flurries but this threat looks pretty much dead other than that.

It is quite strange. It like what we would see with a southern slider, except 600 miles north. The high pressure complex in the lakes is making sure this sucker doesn't cut up through the lakes


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 12:00 pm

Crazy uncle Nogaps is at it again.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-01, 12:44 pm

He is crazy alright. The cold is so shallow it is already tucking tail and running back north if you look to the west of us. It doesn't even stay long enough to have a cup of coffee.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-02, 7:42 am

Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 8:18 am

Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on

Spring lovers win either way today. 6 more weeks of this winter is basically spring.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 8:35 am

Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on

It's like I'm living the same day over and over and over. Wake up, check models, face palm, rinse/repeat.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-02, 9:37 am

LOL! But on a positive note, it is a really pretty day. Smile

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-02, 12:29 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on

It's like I'm living the same day over and over and over. Wake up, check models, face palm, rinse/repeat.


At least the 12z GFS is bringing the cold starting just before truncation.

I'll take it at this point.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 12:38 pm



"Then put your little hand in mine
There ain't no hill or mountain we can't climb"


There's that music again gaaahhh.
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-02, 2:17 pm

Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on

I don't know, Van. It's pretty hush hush right now, but word on the street is that Phil fell off the wagon. Sources are saying that his groundhog friends are gonna stage an intervention soon.


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-02, 3:46 pm

Just saw that the lower 48 has the lowest snow cover for February 2nd since snow cover recording keeping began. Currently only 19 percent of the lower 48 has snow cover. Last year at this time it was 59 percent.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-02, 4:04 pm

Homemommy wrote:
Vanster67 wrote:Well the way this winter is going, I reckon I'll have to put great faith in the furry little critter Punxsutawney Phil, as he says "6 more weeks of Winter" Its you Phil!! You the Man!! Make it happen. rock on

I don't know, Van. It's pretty hush hush right now, but word on the street is that Phil fell off the wagon. Sources are saying that his groundhog friends are gonna stage an intervention soon.


Oooh, tough crowd. I know I'm not supposed to post off topic stuff here, but everyone seems so sad. Trying to cheer ya'll up. console

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 4:05 pm

*slow clap*

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 4:09 pm



What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-02, 4:47 pm

Stovepipe wrote:*slow clap*

flower

Like this?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-02, 6:12 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

Those damn German Kamakaze's!!!

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-02, 7:42 pm

Man.... this storm and its track are still not very clear and the 12z CMC/NAM/NOGAPS are suggesting some wrap around snow showers in east TN around hr 84 but this seems to be very light...it will be interesting to see how models react when this system exits.




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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 1:08 am

The 0z CMC is a damn snowstorm in eastern TN and western NC. But its also an outlier at this point as the GFS/Euro completely shears this storm out over the mid eastern part of the conus. yikes

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 11:24 am

12znam has trended, towards the cmc

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

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