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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 8:41 pm

Crazy ungle Nogaps may score an upset...we'll see...he has a eastern TN snowstorm


I can haz storm?


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 9:15 pm

Was just about to post that toot. Got so excited by the euro I forgot to look at it.

That would be a damn good snowstorm.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 11:02 pm

jmundie wrote:Was just about to post that toot. Got so excited by the euro I forgot to look at it.

That would be a damn good snowstorm.

Things are starting to get interesting Mundie

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 11:06 pm

Gfs looks to be showing a decent event for you Sunday night into monday toot

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 11:13 pm

jmundie wrote:Gfs looks to be showing a decent event for you Sunday night into monday toot

Yep could be cold core ULL threat if the Nam is to be believed...bring it rock on

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-03, 11:42 pm

then course, suppresion sets in... lol

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 11:43 pm

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 11:47 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:then course, suppresion sets in... lol

The nam suggests the ULL threat the suppresion comes afterwardz...with a NEG nao...fun timez aheadz


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 11:02 am

12z Nam still saying some light snow showers in east TN







I think if that ULL verified there would be much more precip than what the NAM is showing...this is getting interesting for east TN wash

The 12z GFS is very similar although it gets middle TN in on the flakes too


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 1:59 pm

Here is the GFS ULL at 500mb for this system. Not closed off on the 12zgfs but im beginning to think we get a compact little closed ULL out of this system drool

12zgfs 500mb hr 42 Monday



12znam 500mb hr 48 Monday


If models trend colder and closed at 500mb the next run...then somebody is going to be very happy


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 2:05 pm

Well - as expected things are bouncing around a bit. Euro still looks decent, a couple of light snow threats next week... Verbatim would stay in Kentucky.

The top of the pna ridge closes off, which screws up a perfectly good setup, by sheering out a s/w which would, ostensibly give us a good chance for a gulf system. This is much like the gfs and Canadian... So it's probably correct, but I'll need 0z to confirm before I bail entirely. If a gulf system forms (and some gfs ensembles still show it) it could be a different story.

The pv is dropping more into the center of the country instead of the east, which is good for middle and west tennessees chances (better trough axis) but because the pna ridge breaks down the cold quickly moves east instead of continuing to dive south.

All in all, I'll take the 850 line just to nashvilles north and multiple disturbances coming through over what we've been seeing. If any of them amplify a bit it would change the entire look. Cold still comes down toward Friday Saturday but it's not as deep as yesterday's 12z run, and a little more transient.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 2:10 pm

Mundie could you please move that post to the Valentines timeframe thread since we are tracking the gulf system there?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 2:22 pm

CMC does close the upper low off around TN






This is getting interesting...I imagine there will be more precip at the surface than what models are showing if that 500mb image verifies. smoke

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 2:31 pm

Some of the 9z Short range ensembles close off the ULL in what's close to a nice spot

Its a Mini Upper level low which can be very intense due to them winding up very quickly.


Precip from this system depends on how the strong the ULL is tomorrow into monday.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 3:12 pm

A look at surface precip with the ULL it seems like its not enough but its very close to something nice in east TN....Ive not bought completely into it yet but im getting excited


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 6:18 pm

18z GFS Rather dry ULL



popcorn

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 7:43 pm

Toot - I looked on twister data and its showing accumulating snow for much of tennessee tomorrow night?

Surprised me. I didn't bother looking at soundings because the precip was so light.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 8:21 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot - I looked on twister data and its showing accumulating snow for much of tennessee tomorrow night?

Surprised me. I didn't bother looking at soundings because the precip was so light.

I cant seem to find much talk about it...but MRX mentions the cold core low with possible snow showers.... but they say no accumulations. Its such a small ULL and those can wrap up pretty tightly and can get quite intense. Its an interesting situation and I think the models will either start showing more precip associated with it or just lose the ULL all together and end up with a dry cold front...but you know how these ULL's are...they're just about unpredictable until go time.

Its such a small one that it will be hard for models to get a good grasp of it. popcorn

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 10:01 pm

0z NAM says nothing to see here...Just FROPA

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-04, 10:23 pm

WHAT IN THE HELL IS GOING ON IN NE TENNESSEE!!???!?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 6:29 am

6z nam Closes off the ULL but has no precip at the surface which i find a little hard to believe


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-05, 3:47 pm

18z has an odd look to it, I can not explain it.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 11:16 pm

Well the little micro ull is getting sheared out but a spoke of energy off of the Vortex up in canada is now showing up on the 0z NAM and GFS around Feb 8th with favorable 850's and thickness


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-07, 7:15 am

rock on Bring the snow on!! Looks like some possible snowfall late tonight (early wednesday morning) the euro has a couple of shots later on, I liked the look of the GFS, and the EURO.. Can it be coming around. Cold temps comin!!! cold rock on rock on
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-07, 7:55 am

Well I am going to get a nice round of cold rain tonight, good luck to those north of me.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

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