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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-01-22, 2:27 pm

I swear the models are screwing with us so much, I am going to stop looking at them and just see what happens.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-23, 12:34 am

Ensembles vs OP battle still.

OP says blah, ensembles say meh, maybe.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 9:16 am

Euro text data has an inch of snow at TYS and about 1.5 at TRI on the 29th. It'll change a 1000 times but it's been so long since I've seen even a flake on there I thought I'd point this out.
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 9:21 am

I have a very high confidence in snow somewhere in TN during this peiod...several great signals showing up for it.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-23, 10:03 am

Stovepipe wrote:Euro text data has an inch of snow at TYS and about 1.5 at TRI on the 29th. It'll change a 1000 times but it's been so long since I've seen even a flake on there I thought I'd point this out.

An inch sounds good! I just want one time to look outside and see the grass and trees with snow on them. I love how when it snows, it's so quiet. Please, just an inch or two, and I'll be happy.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 10:16 am

12zNAM has the Cold coe ULL heading in our direction


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 12:30 pm

Euro bout to roll

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 1:20 pm

12z CMC is very close to wash



Nogaps is very similar

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 1:23 pm

12z ensembles


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 1:36 pm


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-23, 1:48 pm

Euro looks pretty good at 168... hard to tell if the cold will push out just in time for that precip.

If the cold can lock, this might be your southern slider toot




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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 2:50 pm

Looks like a pretty decent shot at snow at 222 210 as well.



Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 3:52 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Images I saw were cached, after refreshing I see it's 210 not 222)
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 3:42 pm

The euro at 210 and 216 is wash

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by ballpark on 2012-01-23, 4:18 pm

Its great to see this winter storm make it within 180 hours now.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-23, 4:22 pm

Toot wrote:The euro at 210 and 216 is wash

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 4:27 pm

jmundie wrote:

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Temps are borderline...but the cold trend with this storm is what im noticing. I just hope it dont trend any further north and west.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-23, 4:32 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:The euro at 210 and 216 is wash

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Usually, the temps are borderline for us during big time events anyways J. Plus, beggers cannot be choosers this year.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-23, 5:26 pm

Toot wrote:
jmundie wrote:

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Temps are borderline...but the cold trend with this storm is what im noticing. I just hope it dont trend any further north and west.

GFS is WAY further north with the same system, but I imagine that is because of its progressive bias.

Hoping we start seeing something like this. Gosh, if that storm could even dig just a little more, it would be a beaut.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-23, 5:29 pm

A couple of teh GFS ensemble members see this threat.

180


192

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-23, 6:42 pm

We are right on the borderline.




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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 7:36 pm

I hope the 18z was just a fluke

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-23, 7:42 pm

Pls explain toot

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-23, 8:05 pm

The storm is still there, just about 150 miles to far north for us right now.

Looks like more rain with cold chasing unless that changes.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-23, 8:07 pm






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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 8:15 pm

snowman72 wrote:Pls explain toot

John just explained it well..the storm trended NW some when the trend was more south and colder. Anyways im betting on a track closer to the euro due to the existing -nao.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

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