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Early FEB snow threat

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-24, 12:02 am

Not surprisingly given the lack of a nice -NAO, this one is drifting more and more towards the NW. Currently being shown as an apps runner, I am figuring on it being a GLC.

Maybe some snow showers on the back side and a few more snow showers with a clipper couple days later.


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 7:09 am

And the Euro lost it completely.

This winter is a nightmare. We can't even track a storm more than one model run.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 8:11 am

Meh....this is still very much a threat mainly for the eastern half of the state with the upper level disturbance and NW flow type snow. Late JAN early FEB continues to hold nice potential here. BTW this is a apps runner...not a lakes cutter. Confidence in a southern slider has decreased but I wouldnt be surprised to see this trend southward and colder. Hard to read the models with such switching going on.

0zcmc


6zNAM


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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 8:55 am

Yeah - was gonna post the canadian. You should have shown all the frames toot (though I guess there aren't west tn folks here to care about it)

Since the canadian has verified higher than the GFS for the last month (and even the euro of late)





and then some slightly below normal temps followed by



If only. We'd have to be betting that both the euro and the gfs and the ukmet are wrong. Which isn't impossible, but is unlikely. If something like this is in the cards, I imagine we'll see all models trend toward it at 12z.


Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 9:00 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Fixed image links)

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 9:05 am

Honestly Mundie I just didnt realize it was that snowy in the western half of the state...but anyways with the NAM latching onto it you can bet it will be back on the gfs...the euro is actually close to the NAM now

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 9:19 am

DGEX:

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 9:23 am

Toot wrote:Honestly Mundie I just didnt realize it was that snowy in the western half of the state...but anyways with the NAM latching onto it you can bet it will be back on the gfs...the euro is actually close to the NAM now

Yeah - the canadian is phasing the systems, if the phase occurs just a bit earlier, watch out from arklatex to memphis nashville and up I81 into the mountains.

BTW - Why the thread title change? Trying to be less specific with your original prediction? Wasn't it Jan 29-Feb 2? Miller A or Southern Slider?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 9:24 am

Stovepipe wrote:DGEX:


Good to see the dgex jumping on board. Though - Its generally not a legitimate threat unless the dgex is showing 45 inches of snow or more. sauce

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 9:27 am

FWIW the JMA in this time period:







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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 9:30 am

jmundie wrote:BTW - Why the thread title change? Trying to be less specific with your original prediction? Wasn't it Jan 29-Feb 2? Miller A or Southern Slider?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 10:03 am

I said my confidence in a southern slider has decreased up above mundie. Hence the title change


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-24, 6:37 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 10:27 am

Toot wrote:I said my confidence in a southern slider has decreased up above mundie. Jence the titlr change

OK.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by snowman72 on 2012-01-24, 11:51 am

Hey Toot,
The 12z looks pretty juicy what ya think?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by ballpark on 2012-01-24, 12:13 pm

It looks like an heat wave coming through.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 12:15 pm

12z says winter is over.

I'm about to wish that it were. Part of the fun of winter is tracking storms on the models.

Not been a lot of that this year. There's been a lot of "the ensembles are pretty cold in the 11-15 day range"

That's not as fun.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 12:34 pm

At first I was like



Then I was like

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by ballpark on 2012-01-24, 12:51 pm

Why the big change in the 12z gfs Stove?

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 1:48 pm

Lol@popcorn

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 1:55 pm

snowman72 wrote:Hey Toot,
The 12z looks pretty juicy what ya think?
im at work and i havent looked into any model data

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 5:40 pm

12zCMC seems to be an outlier with the upper level disturbance snow (N-NW Flow) The NAM Euro and GFS all showed this at one point...im not ready to call this one rain as models would have you believe... although there are some indidvidual ensembles showing something similar to this but I dont believe this is the correct outcome either.




12z GFS and Nogaps went back to a southern slider/Miller A which makes sense to me. But they dont have any cold air to work with and that makes NO sense whatsoever. Im gonna go out on a limb and say this will probably end up the best snow weve seen yet. I can totally picture a mean track from all model guidance being of the Miller A type. A Miller A or southern slider in the last of JAN means snow to me and I think the models are missing some key feature and will probably trend quite a bit colder. There is indice support for this also.

At this point Im going all in on a southern snowstorm.



Im sure some will think im looney but the models are not making good sense and I refuse to accept the warm air in the cold sector of a low pressure system. I may be wrong but im just giving you my honest opinion. I hate to be the one that blatantly ignores model guidance but at this time Ive got to be that kind of guy yikes


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-24, 6:17 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-01-24, 6:13 pm

Stovepipe wrote:At first I was like



Then I was like

lol. i take it ole popcorn doesnt like a blow torch... Very Happy

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 6:14 pm

[insert jmundie heckling here]

Toot, if this turns out to be the case you'll be a legend going into next season. If you bust, mundie will probably get banned for a week or so but you'll still have my respect for calling it like you see it. It'll be a fun ride regardless I suppose. Bring it on!
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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 6:23 pm

Stovepipe wrote:[insert jmundie heckling here]

Toot, if this turns out to be the case you'll be a legend going into next season. If you bust, mundie will probably get banned for a week or so but you'll still have my respect for calling it like you see it. It'll be a fun ride regardless I suppose. Bring it on!

lol...I like what Mundie brings to the table and I will admit that I was wrong to suspend him the last time. (Admin's admitting they're wrong is something you wont see on other wx forums) It goes against my beliefs of allowing good and fiery discussion...nobody will get banned or suspended unless he or she gets personal. I believe we can call each other idiots without getting personal if that is what we wish to do lmao


Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-24, 6:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 6:29 pm

I agree and should clarify that my tongue was very much in my cheek during that last post.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

Post by Guest on 2012-01-24, 6:48 pm

Toot.. there was a southern slider event that came through 2 years ago, Jan. 28-30 2010... that one, we were on the cold side of the low, but it transported its own moist, warm air advection up as far as Knoxville. That was a perfect storm track and we were on, traditionally, the cold side of the low, but the low overcame the cold air and transported warm air advection with the copious amount of Gulf moisture present. Just goes to show that systems, just because they happen in late Jan./perfect storm track/cold side of the low, have their own minds and do what they want to do. I will not discount any model guidance at this point of the game, nor should anyone.

Its too early for anyone to be going 'all in' on a snowstorm 200 hrs out.

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Re: Early FEB snow threat

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