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Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

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Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-22, 1:55 pm




evl



Last edited by Toot on 2012-01-23, 9:17 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 6:39 am

I cannot believe people are not rejoicing over this its as negative as its been since mid NOV....uuugh Suspect

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-23, 6:53 am

Honestly it cuts the chart off and looks like a raging positive NAO!

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-23, 6:55 am

Here is the site it come from http://policlimate.com/weather/oscillation.html

Scroll down to the bottom the NAO/AO is negative when you enlarge the image it does cut it off to where it looks positive. Its fixing to get cold and snowy if this holds

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-23, 7:00 am

Celebrate, Celebrate, Dance to the Weather. (Three Dog Night, Dance to the Music). I am happy. Come on Winter!!!!!! hurry
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-23, 8:23 am

Come on cold!! We've had some pretty big systems with lots of moisture come through recently and they would have been whopper snow events if it had been cold. Makes me sick to think how much snow we would have gotten today if it had been cold. Grrr.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 8:47 am

I hope we start to see some actual threats on the models this week, even if they are in fantasy range.

hurry
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-23, 3:15 pm

Both GFS and Euro 12z op runs kept the -NAO for the long range.

smartass
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 12:54 pm

That is one raging positive AO on both the op and ensembles of the GFS.

facepalm

But hey, we popped a +PNA!

facepalm facepalm
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-24, 1:02 pm

I wouldn't count on the pna ridge. -pdo makes that hard to sustain because the jet is too strong.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-24, 7:45 pm

More like



amirite?
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-24, 8:01 pm

If one pays attention to that NAO graph above it tells a story...there has been three dips into solidly negative territory and each dip produced a eastern US snowstorm...with the most memorable one near Halloween. This dip is going to produce also...where remains to be seen.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-27, 12:18 pm

If the 12z GFS is to be believed our little friend is coming back with a vengeance, along with his buddies +PNA an -AO. Let's see how many runs can keep it.
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-27, 3:55 pm

Barring a sudden trend upward the AO seems to be tanking rock on

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-27, 8:02 pm

Toot wrote:Barring a sudden trend upward the AO seems to be tanking rock on

Hawt



Could this be the "rubberband theory" that has been mentioned so much this winter finally taking effect?
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-27, 8:11 pm

Hopefully this is the elusive colder and active pattern change that I have been chasing all winter. For once we have decent model agreement and some consistency with indices backing everything up. Cant say ive seen this lineup all winter. If it happened in about a week we would still have time for a better event or three. popcorn

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-28, 10:37 am

The NAO is pretty close to as negative as it has been all winter and looks like its still headed towards the AO and the AO is already officially in the tank. This bodes very well for us...the models are on to it also with the threat in about a week...I dont think we get out of this -NAO/-AO regime without something nice or nicer than weve had all winter. The question to me is do we head back to positive territory after a weak/moderate strength storm or do we keep tanking after a stronger LPS?

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 9:41 am

The AO is down again today, lowest level since Dec 2010. All of the operational and ensemble charts for both GFS and Euro show favorable teleconnections going forward. Something has to give. I know we keep saying just give it another week, just give it another week. This time though, I think the payoff is coming.
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 10:07 am

Don Sutherland:

Two notes on the AO:

1. The daily values for January 29 and 30 have been recalculated. The initially reported values were -4.441 and -4.464 respectively. The recalculated figures are -2.981 and -2.500.

2. Today's reported AO is -2.151. It should be noted that the GFS ensembles tank the AO toward mid-month. That kind of outcome would be consistent with the 2/8-15 period turning out cold in the East, if it verifies.

Regarding the NAO, remind me again which NAO chart we should be looking at? Because if polyclimate is to be believed we are looking good currently:



CPC not so much:



Based on the comments I read elsewhere it seems people are following the CPC because I keep hearing "if only the NAO could go negative blah blah".
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by jmundie on 2012-01-31, 10:31 am

Stovepipe wrote:Don Sutherland:

Two notes on the AO:

1. The daily values for January 29 and 30 have been recalculated. The initially reported values were -4.441 and -4.464 respectively. The recalculated figures are -2.981 and -2.500.

2. Today's reported AO is -2.151. It should be noted that the GFS ensembles tank the AO toward mid-month. That kind of outcome would be consistent with the 2/8-15 period turning out cold in the East, if it verifies.

Regarding the NAO, remind me again which NAO chart we should be looking at? Because if polyclimate is to be believed we are looking good currently:



CPC not so much:



Based on the comments I read elsewhere it seems people are following the CPC because I keep hearing "if only the NAO could go negative blah blah".

For the weather we want, the CPC is probably the best thing to look at. CPC is looking at pressure, Maue is looking at heights, so if you have a deep enough trough in the greenland area, you can still endup with a negative NAO becase the heights over east canada and northern greenland are a little higher. You've basically got a really really east based neutral nao right now, which isn't helping on the blocking front.

Its just an unmitigated disaster if I'm being honest. The only hopeful thing I see in the short range is that some of the 6z ensemble members are showing a second wave of low pressure coming out of the gulf as we finally get some cold air in in the 5-7 day period. One or two panels showing snow, but its something to watch.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Toot on 2012-01-31, 10:48 am

Mundie......the cpc uses heights and maue uses mslp

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Reb on 2012-01-31, 11:21 am

heres to a hopeful feb!!!!
sauce

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by ballpark on 2012-01-31, 12:00 pm

I guess it will turn cold in March.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by John1122 on 2012-01-31, 12:04 pm

I just don't see any sustained cold this year. We might get a few days of cold here and there, maybe even a perfectly timed snow event. But the heart of winter is likely to pass without a whimper, as we only have two weeks left basically.

After mid-February it can still snow and be cold, but it's exceptionally rare for it to be sustained for any length of time after that point due to the rapidly rising sun angle.

This may go down as the worst winter of all time from a snow cover/sustained cold perspective for the lower 48 outside of the PAC NW.

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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 12:14 pm

I'm with you John, it's such a shame to waste our prime climo weeks with this nonsense. The possibility of a good hit in March is very real though. Even if it doesn't hang around long due to the sun angle, that could save the winter in my book. It's hard to be encouraged by what we are seeing but it's not even February yet so we just have to hope that modeling beyond a week is crap and that we can still salvage something.
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Re: Say Hello to my little friend.... Mr. -NAO/AO

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