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Long Range Thread

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2011-12-12, 5:32 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:If the gfs is right in long range, we will be wearing shorts and dodging thunderstorms by xmas, cant rule out severe either. frank strait even said something about that

Lol...Bruce do you wear shorts in 20 and 30 degree weather?

12zgfs Christmas


Just trying to get things back to reality here drunken

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-12, 8:14 pm

Sadly we are dealing with this monster over the next couple of weeks.


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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2011-12-12, 8:32 pm

John1122 wrote:Sadly we are dealing with this monster over the next couple of weeks.

18z GFS Ensembles say that it's gone by hr 132


The ridge is just in response to a couple of digging shortwaves... looks like 2 episodes of pre frontal warming with rain associated with each front. Im starting to think the second front could be a pretty strong one... but guidance here lately has been struggling. Hopefully we'll get some better performance out of models after the first storm gets sampled.

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-12, 8:35 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:Sadly we are dealing with this monster over the next couple of weeks.

18z GFS Ensembles say that it's gone by hr 132


The ridge is just in response to a couple of digging shortwaves... looks like 2 episodes of pre frontal warming with rain associated with each front. Im starting to think the second front could be a pretty strong one... but guidance here lately has been struggling. Hopefully we'll get some better performance out of models after the first storm gets sampled.


I've found in winters past that once it gets rolling it's like Jason mixed with Freddy. It's very very hard to keep it from coming back, let alone kill it.

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2011-12-12, 8:43 pm

John1122 wrote:

I've found in winters past that once it gets rolling it's like Jason mixed with Freddy. It's very very hard to keep it from coming back, let alone kill it.

lol


Its been around off and on for a while already.... mostly in response to digging shortwaves... but each time it was easily removed by a low pressure system followed by a cold shot...then wash and rinse all over again. I think the 500mb longwave pattern is gonna change to some degree around the 20th but im not sure what that will hold for us.


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-12, 9:09 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-12, 8:53 pm

John1122 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:Sadly we are dealing with this monster over the next couple of weeks.

18z GFS Ensembles say that it's gone by hr 132


The ridge is just in response to a couple of digging shortwaves... looks like 2 episodes of pre frontal warming with rain associated with each front. Im starting to think the second front could be a pretty strong one... but guidance here lately has been struggling. Hopefully we'll get some better performance out of models after the first storm gets sampled.


I've found in winters past that once it gets rolling it's like Jason mixed with Freddy. It's very very hard to keep it from coming back, let alone kill it.
yep john, i been a weather geek for years... its what i call a ridge on steroids... its going to be hard to kill it... once its stats to flex its muscles he is hell on wheels. lol

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2011-12-12, 9:00 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:

yep john, i been a weather geek for years... its what i call a ridge on steroids... its going to be hard to kill it... once its stats to flex its muscles he is hell on wheels. lol

Its been no more sustained than these cold shots have "here today and gone tomorrow". Matter of a fact it has been more of a bermuda ridge than a southeast ridge as of lately. IMO its just as boring as these little teaser cold shots.....I need a pattern change badly... the current up and down one is driving me loony affraid

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Guest on 2011-12-12, 9:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
John1122 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:Sadly we are dealing with this monster over the next couple of weeks.

18z GFS Ensembles say that it's gone by hr 132


The ridge is just in response to a couple of digging shortwaves... looks like 2 episodes of pre frontal warming with rain associated with each front. Im starting to think the second front could be a pretty strong one... but guidance here lately has been struggling. Hopefully we'll get some better performance out of models after the first storm gets sampled.


I've found in winters past that once it gets rolling it's like Jason mixed with Freddy. It's very very hard to keep it from coming back, let alone kill it.
yep john, i been a weather geek for years... its what i call a ridge on steroids... its going to be hard to kill it... once its stats to flex its muscles he is hell on wheels. lol

I agree Bruce. Looks like some possible severe. Might have to yank out those shorts before long.

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-12, 9:43 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:

yep john, i been a weather geek for years... its what i call a ridge on steroids... its going to be hard to kill it... once its stats to flex its muscles he is hell on wheels. lol

Its been no more sustained than these cold shots have "here today and gone tomorrow". Matter of a fact it has been more of a bermuda ridge than a southeast ridge as of lately. IMO its just as boring as these little teaser cold shots.....I need a pattern change badly... the current up and down one is driving me loony affraid
i agree with you toot, think we all are going loony. yeah i have heard of a bermuda ridge, it sets up further east out in the atlantic. either one of them isnt our friend when it comes to winter weather.

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-13, 12:34 am

Although you can't trust it, the GFS has two Tennessee snow events between 324 and 372 now.


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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 7:30 pm

In addition to the Christmas or post Christmas system there's starting to be additional signs of another winter event in the eastern united states around the new year.

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Reb on 2011-12-20, 7:33 pm

funny gifs

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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-20, 8:09 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:In addition to the Christmas or post Christmas system there's starting to be additional signs of another winter event in the eastern united states around the new year.



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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 10:00 pm

I thought I would revive this old thread... because most of the models are locking onto the negative NAO pattern with high lattitude blocking near Greenland.

This should keep us near to below normal in the long range.

Here is the 12z euro at 240


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Re: Long Range Thread

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-13, 10:04 pm

Good deal, I have been noticing in the long range it looks dry but not because of the ridge.

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Re: Long Range Thread

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