WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Page 1 of 12 1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-29, 2:14 pm

Nearly every year around this timeframe there is usually a snow threat and this year probably wont be any different. The pattern seems to be setting up for such an event so I will go ahead and get a thread started.





Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-11, 9:12 pm; edited 6 times in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-01-29, 2:25 pm

Didn't Snowmania say there would be a possible Valentine's snowstorm around a week ago??

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-29, 2:49 pm

Reb wrote: sneaky its still Jan...lol

Lol...I know... but on a more serious note it looks like there will be an arctic airmass in place in the eastern U.S with access to the Polar Vortex and the subtropical Jet stream. Then you have the Arctic Oscillation which according to models and current readings will likely be in the tank. The NAO is still heading more negative also and A few models are even developing a blocking anomaly near greenland.

All in all this to my eye looks like the most promising timeframe (Feb10th-15th) with regards to the colder pattern that is evolving. lmao

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-29, 5:06 pm

I have moved all the off topic posts to a thread in random discussion. If you want to continue the off topic disco... there is a thread for it.

Thanks

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-29, 7:45 pm

This is the 18z GFS ensemble mean for feb 12th...notice the dual blocking anomalies with one in Greenland and one in the gulf of Alaska. This produces a mean eastern trough with access to the polar Vortex near hudson bay and a subtropical Jet stream down south



The 12z euro and cmc ensembles are very similar although there are small differences...they all end up with a deep eastern Trough in this period

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-01-30, 8:36 am

How is the possible storm for this time period looking?
avatar
Vanster67
Admin

Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 50
Location : Monterey, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 11:55 am

12z GFS sees something in this time period:





Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 12:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 12:56 pm

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-01-30, 1:19 pm

Would be nice to see the 336 hr snowfall forecast happen, but like I said, its '336 hours out'.... LOL

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Homemommy on 2012-01-30, 1:48 pm

According to that map I'd see around 4 inches. Too bad we can't order and prepay for that right now...sigh.

_________________
Ready for the beach. Oh, yes, I am.
avatar
Homemommy
Founding Member

Posts : 824
Join date : 2011-12-07
Age : 36
Location : Southeast Knox County

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1283313403

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-01-30, 1:58 pm

Homemommy wrote:According to that map I'd see around 4 inches. Too bad we can't order and prepay for that right now...sigh.

I hear ya lol.. I'd be getting 6-7 inches from it. There's like a perfect illustration of a dart board/bullseye right over Central Va lol

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Southeastbutter on 2012-01-30, 4:13 pm

I'm gonna pretend I didn't see that accumulation map... Not only is it 15 days away, it's showing accumulating snow. We will probably end up with 63 degrees and severe weather. Thats my call. Hope I'm wrong.

Southeastbutter
Founding Member

Posts : 33
Join date : 2011-12-14

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 11:02 pm

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-30, 11:50 pm

0z GFS is awful.

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-31, 12:15 am

0z Still has that big storm that you posted up above Stove...its a ways out there but around 240 hrs you can see a monstrous gulf low forming. This run it heads off shore missing us but the Cold air will be available during this timeframe.

This low is being depicted by several different models...its way to early for it to really be trackable on the models due to resolution issues.... but the pattern thats being depicted by several ensembles will allow for a gulf type low and the cold air will be available if one should take a favorable path

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 8:23 am

6z GFS is a tad better. Let's hope when the data from the Pacific flights gets ingested into the models that things improve, or at least become more consistent.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 11:58 am

Technically there is snow on Valentines day on the 12z GFS. It's pretty weak sauce but it is snow. Now what, pray tell, is the Euro going to show?
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-01-31, 4:08 pm

Ensembles continue to suggest a MUCH colder look with a dual blocking signal of +PNA/-NAO and a active STJ stream look which will have access to the PV near hudson bay if the ensembles are correct.

12zGFS Ensemble mean valid for Feb 12th


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-01-31, 11:54 pm

0z GFS





avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 8:54 am

I can't seem to find anything of value in either the 0z Euro or 6z GFS.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-01, 9:51 am

They show a couple of days below normal temps and some seasonal temps after that. For this winter, I'd call that a win.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 11:49 am

12z GFS has fantasy flakes at the end. Otherwise more of the same. This one had the RAOB data ingested too I understand.
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-01, 12:02 pm

This time period is still a little too far out to track anything due to the bad resolution of the models at these hours. At this point were mainly looking at the 500mb pattern

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-01, 12:08 pm

Stovepipe wrote:12z GFS has fantasy flakes at the end. Otherwise more of the same. This one had the RAOB data ingested too I understand.

This fantasy storm, just for sheer size and depth, deserves a




And lets be honest - this may be the only chance we get to use this gif this season.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 1:20 pm

Sure, why not.

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 12 1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum