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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 3:32 pm

jmundie wrote:There is now a tropical disturbance in the gulf.

This just got interesting.....
it would be wild if there was cold air already in place, or there was some cold to tap into. but this is just crazy for february.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 5:15 pm

There is no true tropical system...one low is attached to a frontal system which makes it non tropical and there is a monsoon trough deep in the gulf but the NHC isnt giving that any chance of becoming tropical in nature. I imagine if conditions were favorable (which they're not) a subtropical or hybrid system could be possible..but this all looks to merge into a Extratropical cyclone that will be a snow maker and hopefully it will produce copious amounts of snow here in TN.




The crazy uncle Nogaps has come on board at 12z




Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-05, 6:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 5:59 pm

18z Just skims east TN mostly...full fledged snowstorm in western NC





Very close to a big dog there...im loving where we are sitting at this point


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-05, 6:04 pm

jmundie wrote:There is now a tropical disturbance in the gulf.

This just got interesting.....

We won't talk about a certain storm in March of 1993 that showed tropical characteristics.
I know it was in the 70's the week before and mid 40's earlier in the day with rain. Alas at our 6 pm local news Neal Paschal from channel 9 called for little or no snow and within 2 hours Chatanooga had an all out blizzard. We "only" ended up with 20-24 inches of snow and the radar looked like a hurricane moving out of Florida. That monster sucked massive amounts of cold air from our north

Jmundie, get to work and get 93's baby brother to pay us a visit.


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-05, 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo again. tablet)

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 9:06 pm

There are some red taggers at American throwing out the possibility of a triple phase...

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 9:12 pm

Toot wrote:18z Just skims east TN mostly...full fledged snowstorm in western NC


Very close to a big dog there...im loving where we are sitting at this point


I'll take the storm south of me at this timeframe. Much preferable to 4 days of hoping it trends south. Kentucky/Indiana storms are the worst.

This thing will undoubtably go further west if a phase occurs. A couple of the phasers on the gfs ensembles have been too far west for all of Tennessee, basically due north moving lows, bombing out, with crazy snow in north Texas, Louisiana, and all of Arkansas, if that happens - I may go nuts.

But I'll certainly take a sub 996 low from Nola to Atlanta, before turning up the coast just east of the apps.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-05, 9:15 pm

jmundie wrote:There are some red taggers at American throwing out the possibility of a triple phase...

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 9:46 pm

jmundie wrote:There are some red taggers at American throwing out the possibility of a triple phase...

Its an impressive setup and a few model runs have suggested a full lattitude trough with such a tall ridge out west. So phasing will most likely be in the cards.

If by triple phase they mean (1) a spoke off energy off of the PV..(2) the cuttoff that dives WAYYY south into the eastern Pacific ocean off the coast of mexico and then for the third feature (3) a shortwave thats caught up in between those two....then a triple phase is quite possible as the CMC has actually been doing this already



This is known better as three vort max phasing

0zCMC hr 120 shows three differnt pieces of energy (Vorts) getting ready to phase



By 144 three vort max phasing is already taking place (notice all three vorts have phased into one long piece of energy)

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 10:11 pm

I'm not going to post it, because I don't want to fill the thread with negative nancy junk,.. But ohx's pm afd was just awful. They basically said the euro is right and there will be no storm. No discussion of the possibility that the euro isn't right. I hope they bust in a huge way (and it will be a public way when my saved copy of that afd pops up. I kinda wonder if it was a response to me. Those guys read tennesseewx and ive been rising them pretty hard for their terribly matter of fact afds stating how cold is going to be transient.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 10:11 pm

jmundie wrote:

I'll take the storm south of me at this timeframe. Much preferable to 4 days of hoping it trends south. Kentucky/Indiana storms are the worst.

This thing will undoubtably go further west if a phase occurs. A couple of the phasers on the gfs ensembles have been too far west for all of Tennessee, basically due north moving lows, bombing out, with crazy snow in north Texas, Louisiana, and all of Arkansas, if that happens - I may go nuts.

But I'll certainly take a sub 996 low from Nola to Atlanta, before turning up the coast just east of the apps.

Lol Mundie...I agree totally with everything you have said...Most storms this season have trended NW and if what is modeled by the GFS is correct then we're golden.... you can about guarantee someone that this will come NW. Not only that but the models always underdo the precip shield with gulf type lows....and precip will nearly always verifiy North and west of the models due to that....I think this one will not trend away like the last few...this is a big dog for somebody in the SE or Mid Atlantic


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 10:33 pm

i know i have been posting alot of negativity towards winter on here lately, but i dont like to sugar coat nothing... but if we can get a sub 996 deep low that goes from orleans to about atlanta ... ribeye steaks are on me and a restraunt of your choice, i would be so happy. we need a phase just around central georgia... that would translate to fun times ahead

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 10:36 pm

jmundie wrote:I'm not going to post it, because I don't want to fill the thread with negative nancy junk,.. But ohx's pm afd was just awful. They basically said the euro is right and there will be no storm. No discussion of the possibility that the euro isn't right. I hope they bust in a huge way (and it will be a public way when my saved copy of that afd pops up. I kinda wonder if it was a response to me. Those guys read tennesseewx and ive been rising them pretty hard for their terribly matter of fact afds stating how cold is going to be transient.


I cant see how anyone could go with the euro at this point...I mean it disagrees with every model out there as the UKMET even looks more like the GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/DGEX...Really how can anyone possibly side with the euro? I mean the euro gets no southern energy into this system while ALL the other models that I see does and they all phase to my knowledge...IDK maybe im looking over something??? or I guess it would be possible for the euro to score an upset here but guidance says the euro is dead wrong IMO....I call bs on OHX's part

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 11:32 pm

Gfs completely lost the storm

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 11:40 pm

jmundie wrote:Gfs completely lost the storm
yep, it transfers the energy to fast i think mundie...

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 11:41 pm

Its the GFS too cold bias... suppresses everthing to the gulf.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 11:49 pm

Toot wrote:Its the GFS too cold bias... suppresses everthing to the gulf.

I don't think it's the bias .... They fixed that with the last update for the most part.

The cold comes in much much faster on this run. The high pressure is 2000 miles further at the same timeframe from the prior run.

So that obviously destroys any chance of a phase.

Nt sure I buy it. Gfs has a tendency to get wonky in this timeframe.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 11:57 pm

We just seen this happen yesterday I think where the northern stream (cold) is so strong it crushes (shears) out the southern stream vorts...so there is nothing to phase with. This is suppression/cold bias...they have never fixed that. The GFS has been doing it with several other systems this winter although not here in the eastern us.

Anyways...I cant stay up for the other models...im too sleepy


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-06, 8:25 am

Euro has two threats this week. Tues might to wed am and Friday.

Both look like 1-2 inches possible, but if either amps up, could be a different story. I'll take it this year.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-06, 1:26 pm

Cmc has our miller a.....the gfs also has it but its a little suppressed

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-06, 4:07 pm

The potential triple phase players via 18z NAM (courtesy of American)

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-06, 4:26 pm

Will it be cold enough Tuesday Night?

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-06, 5:26 pm

I see no models have been posted today...so here are the 12zcmc and Nogaps





The GFS continues to suppress the storm and I havent looked at the 12z euro


EDIT...The euro misses the phase and leaves energy back in the southwest but it still has vort driven flakes from the northern stream

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-06, 7:21 pm

Here is the 18z GFS ensembles As you can see the OP GFS (First image) is the southern most member from 18z

Im liking what they are selling at this point


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-06, 8:38 pm

Yeah good trends from the 18z ensembles. We should start seeing hints of a nw trend in the 0z tonight if it's going to happen.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-06, 8:39 pm

Ah yes, the old NW trend. Been awhile since we've had the chance to root for one.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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