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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-06, 11:43 pm

In honor of tonight's 0z GFS I'm lighting up a nice Cuban cigar.

smoke
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-07, 7:52 am

I didn't find the 0z GFS very good at all. Still suppressed the storm.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-07, 8:11 am

The 6z nam at 84 looks like its in the process of phasing and it looks like it will be well north of the gfs.

Supposed to be a GIGANTIC SNOWSTORM in Febuary 2012 lmao

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-07, 8:20 am

The 0z Euro is extremely close to the big Gulf low/millera snowstorm....its pretty sexy wash

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 8:42 am

It's very encouraging that the Euro has found the gulf storm. It even threw in a couple of potential light events for our trouble. I was not expecting anything positive at all from that run. Let's see if it somehow holds to 12z.

Also I have to say it's a pleasure to see the 06z GFS showing close call after close call. Shirley one of those will pay off. Thankfully February doesn't look boring. We may not get a damn flake out of any of this but we at least we have multiple threats to track.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-07, 8:53 am

Stovepipe wrote:In honor of tonight's 0z GFS I'm lighting up a nice Cuban cigar.

smoke

Gee, must have been that 'nice' Cuban cigar, evl Yea models aint looking too bad. Maybe a little snow early in the A.M., maybe this wk end. I am feelin better. bleh hurry
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 8:57 am

Vanster67 wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:In honor of tonight's 0z GFS I'm lighting up a nice Cuban cigar.

smoke

Gee, must have been that 'nice' Cuban cigar, evl Yea models aint looking too bad. Maybe a little snow early in the A.M., maybe this wk end. I am feelin better. bleh hurry

Hey, Castro needs storms too! evl



"I can haz three more like 0z?"


Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 9:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-07, 8:59 am

I'm surprised no one noticed the negative nao that starts building day 5/6. Its probably gonna be east based, but it starts retrograding the pv, which may keep us colder than models arecurrently advertising for the second wave. If the timing is like the euro, and the greenland block appears and holds there will be a southern slider.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 9:24 am

Crazy uncle Nogaps again.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-07, 10:07 am

Or how about Crazy Uncle Canadian.

How it goes from what it showed at 12z yesterday to its 0z solution last night is beyond me. It doesn't even get cold. Last nights run did eject the closed low, but the timing of the ejection was just after the pv is dropping in, so it gets sheered out quickly. Then a nice secondary piece of energy drops into the plains, gives oklahoma a blizzard but, since we never get cold, we get a chilly rain.

Honestly - I think our best chance of a storm is going to be Sun/Mon with the second piece of energy coming through. I don't think the models are handling the progression well beyond 72 hours right now, which is obviously affecting their solution at 150-180 hours. Ensembles don't want to warm things up quite so quickly, euro, on the other hand, wants to bring the energy in faster, so more cold is available.

If it happens, we get two days warning at the most.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 10:57 am

LOL I'm quoting Mundie from another forum:

What I saw that looked better on the NAM is that the PV appears to be weakening, and a portion of it is getting held back in the midwest. The vortmax coming down the back side of it then is at a better angle to dig when it rotates through - not to mention - the wave coming off the pacific. If enough of the pv can get left behind and those two vorts converge underneath it, there will be more precip in the midsouth (assuming they don't get sheered out.

From my understanding, a lot of the phasing has to do with the angle of the trough, the shape/tightness of the pv. If its a strong pv, very circular and tight, getting a phase of the southern stream and one of the vorts rotating around the pv is near impossible. You get a northern stream dominated system.

The reason things looked good on saturday, was a piece of energy was cutting through the top of the ridge and connecting with the pv, elongated the trough enough that it could pick up southern stream energy. Without the trough becoming more elongated (staying more circular and tight) it just suppresses the southern stream into oblivion.

I found this explanation to be very interesting. I'm going to be looking for these features going forward. Thanks.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 12:54 pm

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-07, 3:01 pm

12z Canadian says it's aboot time to party eh.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-07, 5:36 pm

18z GFS is absolutley terrible, It doesn't even get all that cold.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-07, 5:41 pm

Actually the 18z puts down 1-3 inches of snow across most of Tennessee during 156-174 or so.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-07, 7:22 pm

The 18z NAM says game on rock on

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-07, 9:06 pm

John1122 wrote:Actually the 18z puts down 1-3 inches of snow across most of Tennessee during 156-174 or so.
Well I don't tend to look that far lol.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-08, 9:21 am

0z Euro shows possibly an inch or two on the 11th. Verbatim the surface temps are questionable. Graphics and text posted in the lounge.

It also shows a semi-close call on the 14th and some more snow showers at hour 240.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-08, 10:27 am

Doesn't look like a close call to me at all on the 13/14 Stove. Euro accum maps showing a solid 1-3 statewide, before changing over to rain.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-08, 10:29 am

I should add as well. This is driven by evaporational cooling. Temps are a bit mild, but with heavy precip, it will quickly change to heavy snow, the column drops to around freezing, and then as temps rebound, a switch over to rain will occur.

One can hope that the models are missing a reinforcing shot of cold... but can't bank on that at this time.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-08, 10:46 am

jmundie wrote:Doesn't look like a close call to me at all on the 13/14 Stove. Euro accum maps showing a solid 1-3 statewide, before changing over to rain.

Looks like the 540 line is in central KY and surface temps across TN in mid 30s. Also the accum map from accupro only shows an inch in west TN and eastern mountains. I posted some more maps for hour 150. You don't think this would be a close call?
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-08, 11:46 am

GFS says strong -nao through 150 or so, it weakens, but by that time, the pna has built back up so we've got an arctic plung coming down (a high pressure instead of depending on the pv to sit on top of us)

I think february is going to rock folks. It may not be super sustained cold, but we're going to get multiple shots of snow before the month is out.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-08, 12:27 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
jmundie wrote:Doesn't look like a close call to me at all on the 13/14 Stove. Euro accum maps showing a solid 1-3 statewide, before changing over to rain.

Looks like the 540 line is in central KY and surface temps across TN in mid 30s. Also the accum map from accupro only shows an inch in west TN and eastern mountains. I posted some more maps for hour 150. You don't think this would be a close call?

If the storm comes in Monday - no I don't. I am very confident that it quickly changes to rain.

The reason that you're struggling seeing this depicted on the models is because its caused by evaporational cooling. The precip arrives and quickly drops the entire column to freezing except maybe the surface, which gets close) and heavy wet snow falls, quickly accumulates, and then changes over to rain as humidity hits 100% and WAA overcomes the freezing temps.

GFS is on it as well,btw, but you can't tell by looking at the maps. It is showing up on the accumulation totals though.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-08, 12:33 pm

BTW - Canadian also showing it. See how the 850s dip down there the precip first starts falling.... evaporational cooling. 850s don't randomly cool like that (they were above freezing in the prior frame). Its because of the insanely dry air left over from the system this weekend.


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-08, 12:39 pm

The -NAO takes a brief trip into negative territory only to go back positive pretty quickly. The AO looks to go firmly positive in the long range as well. I don't see how Feb. can rock with those indices going against us.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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