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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 8:29 pm

Here is RUC reflectivity near 24 hrs from now


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 8:30 pm

Hrrr is quite moist looking with possible snow back in ark tomorrow morning.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 11:30 pm

From my Blog

A well developed southern stream shortwave will merge with a strong spoke of energy from a Upper low diving down out of canada and winter weather will result as a baroclinic zone sets up. A band of precip will develop along and in advance of an arctic cold front and will slide through the state tomorrow and Saturday. Where these two energies meet up will be ever important as to the outcome.

This precip will probably start as rain in most places but will quickly and dynamically change to snow due to strong cold air advection and wet bulbing. Flash like freezes will take place and driving conditions could become hazardous very quickly.

Due to the uncertainties I have just made a probability map and counties in grey have the best shot of seeing an inch or more of snow.




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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 11:34 pm

Toot wrote:From my Blog

A well developed southern stream shortwave will merge with a strong spoke of energy from a Upper low diving down out of canada and winter weather will result as a baroclinic zone sets up. A band of precip will develop along and in advance of an arctic cold front and will slide through the state tomorrow and Saturday. Where these two energies meet up will be ever important as to the outcome.

This precip will probably start as rain in most places but will quickly and dynamically change to snow due to strong cold air advection and wet bulbing. Flash like freezes will take place and driving conditions could become hazardous very quickly.

Due to the uncertainties I have just made a probability map and counties in grey have the best shot of seeing an inch or more of snow.


Good write up Toot.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 11:41 pm

0z GFS accums FWIW:

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-09, 11:46 pm

Twisterdata's sounding and snowfall map conflict with each other.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 11:57 pm

RPM Model

www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-10, 12:38 am

Up to 80 percent snow tomorrow night now. New accum less than 1/2 inches per the point forecast.

If that rpm is to be believed it's never anything but snow here. Hope it's right.

I will say the temp was much colder today than originall forecast. It only made it to 37 degrees here today and I am already down to 26, which is two degrees colder than my forecast low. So the ground has a chance to get a good bit cooler with todays cold and tonights hard freeze. Hopefully between this and Monday I can squeeze out 3 inches.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 8:12 am

My oh my look at the radar this morning...there is alot of virga but when places get saturated its going to be katy bar the door rock on I just hope the salt trucks get out

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-10, 9:06 am

For MiddleTN, just looked at the HRRR, it doesn't look promising. RUC has a warm shallow layer at the surface as well but it may be 1000 to 1500' and down. Could be a snowish graupel mix. Most people in and around Davidson live around 400 to 600 feet in elevation. I don't really know how far snow has to fall through near freezing temps to turn back to liquid. Tough call.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 9:11 am

RPM looks pretty good for middle and east TN. Except for the valley of course, it shows the usual screw there. Not so much p-type problems but more just moisture drying up after coming off the plateau.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-10, 9:18 am

The first few flakes of 2012 are falling in Dyersburg as i type. And I mean FEW.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 9:19 am

Congrats DW! Hope you end up doing well in this.

rock on
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 9:54 am

Virga blizzard at John's house?

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-10, 10:59 am

bugalou at tnwx says snow in southhaven, ms fwiw

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-10, 11:57 am

Stovepipe wrote:Congrats DW! Hope you end up doing well in this.

rock on

I counted all 57 flakes. LOL
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-02-10, 12:30 pm

WWA was expanded to include the Plateau regions as of around 10, 10:30. It also said that temps were lowered, and the temps will be crucial as to how much the valley recieves from this. Sounds like they are starting to bite a little more on this little event.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 12:34 pm

My concern is that the HRRR is showing this thing drying up considerably as it moves across the state.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 12:39 pm

facepalm



Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 1:28 pm

Looks like mrx is serious son

.DISCUSSION...RETURN FLOW LIMITED TO EXTREME SW AREA TODAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IS STILL BEING EVALUATED TO ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SON

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-10, 1:36 pm

Yes!! rock on Monterey and Jamestown can receive upto 2 inches of the good stuff!! Did I say good stuff. I mean GRRREAT stuff. Was pleasantly surprised to see the WWA . Just got up a few minutes ago. Toot, looks like this fits your call map. Lets see what happens. wash
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-10, 2:24 pm

I strongly suspected MRX was overstating temps for today. They originally progged my high to be 49 degrees. It's made it up to 38 so far and I doubt we get much more upward momentum.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-02-10, 2:26 pm

Mrx has increased the chance of snow to 50% for tomorrow until 1 PM, and snow likely for tonight for my city/town. They have also lowered temps for tonight to 28, and temps for tomorrow to 33. Also, they have an inch of snow accums for tonight as well.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 2:28 pm



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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-02-10, 2:31 pm

The Hrrr is awfully dry.. I'd trust that model over any other right now though.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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