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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 3:49 pm

A buddy of mine in Nashville just said he hasn't seen a flake and is sitting at 40 degrees despite the radar showing returns.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Guest on 2012-02-10, 4:11 pm

The higher elevations will see liquid/snow ratios of 1:40 at the end of the event, according to Mrx.... sneaky

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-10, 4:15 pm

Well it's 3:14 pm and snowing here in Monterey!!!! about 36 degrees outside.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 4:18 pm

All rain here right now... Probably going to stay that way.
EDIT: Just dropped down to 38 real fast.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 4:29 pm

You can see the colder air pouring into middle TN from the NW.



Also RPM continues to show win for the plateau, fail for the valley.

http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 4:31 pm

MRX with a rare and sexy discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
254 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...RAPID PATTERN CHANGES
TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE OVER OK MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG JET SEGMENT IN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SINKS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN WORKING
OVER THE DRY LOW LEVELS OVER THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL WITH VIRGA AND MOISTEN FROM ALOFT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MIXED AND EARLY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SPARSE. THE AXIS
OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
DRAMATIC FALL IN THE FREEZING LEVEL. GOOD AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAY BREAK SATURDAY. LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT VERY
TIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION VERY STRONG.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE AND LIKELY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE WITH TYPICAL LIMITED MOISTURE. OCCASIONAL
CONVERGENT BANDS OF STRONGER SNOW BURST POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
LAPSE RATES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY SO BEST NW FLOW AND
CYCLONIC CURVATURE LOSES CHARACTER INTO SAT EVENING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS STAY UP SUFFICIENTLY TO
HINT AT POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND 1:40 NEAR EVENT END
COULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY GREATLY
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

drool

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 4:39 pm

What is the crap from OHX? Keepking Lawrenceburg at 29 for the night?

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by skillsweather on 2012-02-10, 5:16 pm

Lol, Adam is getting trolled by OHX. Very Happy Im inbetween the 24 and 25 and 100% of snow! woot Smile To bad in this case it only means a good dusting at best :/ oh well. This snow is like a 10incher in any other year. Atleast for me.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 5:17 pm

The map makes no sense, the front is coming from the northwest...

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 5:24 pm

Its pretty normal for southern TN to be warmer than northern TN...of course there are exceptions to that rule but this system is definately not one of them. Seems to be a classic I-40 and north system

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 5:29 pm

What is with Clarksvile with rain and snow at 23 degrees? I guruntee I get below 29. I am at 37 right now.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-10, 5:36 pm

Grassy areas getting covered up. It has been lightly snowing for about 1 1/2 hours. Flakes are getting bigger, falling at a heavier rate. It's beautiful!! Feeling good about this snow event. Smile Hope it snows for everyone!
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 5:39 pm

Congrats Van! John may get his 3 inches from this too. Happy for y'all.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 5:58 pm

East Tn has nightfall on its side now so that means a possible two rounds of light snow with NW flow snow showers behind that. It seems that the leading edge of the first band is mostly virga but as vann mentioned its making to the ground near Crossville. By the time the cloumn fully saturates and precip is allowed to make it to the ground it may well be in the form of snow from the onset in most of east TN

Gonna be a fun night. hurry

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 6:07 pm

Toot is the dryness in the valley, shown on RPM and HRRR, due to downsloping? I assume it is but I thought I'd ask.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 6:09 pm

Terrible postition to be here in Lawrenceburg. I am holding at 37..

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 6:12 pm

Yup thats downsloping showing up...but any High resolution model has a tendecy to reflect too much downsloping quite often.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 6:15 pm

So you're tellin me there's a chance! Yes!

What was all that one in a million talk?

lmao
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 6:32 pm

Lol...The second band/line that comes through should be convective in nature and I would imagine it comes through in the early am...if one gets under a nice cell it could provide a nice little thumping. Of course by this time it will be WELL below freezing and all that falls will stick.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 6:45 pm

Toot wrote:Lol...The second band/line that comes through should be convective in nature and I would imagine it comes through in the early am...if one gets under a nice cell it could provide a nice little thumping. Of course by this time it will be WELL below freezing and all that falls will stick.
Toot I can't realy understand why places to my east are colder then I am. I understand the elevation but the nonelevated areas. I am at 36.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 6:49 pm

I dont see any unelevated areas east of you that are colder than you????

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 6:52 pm

Okay your right, so dusting at best here...

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 7:08 pm

Vanster67 wrote:Well it's 3:14 pm and snowing here in Monterey!!!! about 36 degrees outside.
Pictures Van please for me.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 7:13 pm

MRX snow map...these guys are getting good


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 7:19 pm

Dang SON!

Everything has been better since they brought SON on board.


Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 7:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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