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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-01, 2:01 pm

Euro has a nice ULL coming down from canada, packing some -10c 850s, rolling right through tennessee.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-01, 2:50 pm

Though I don't believe it will happen, someone at American with pay Euro access said Tennessee gets decent snow from the ULL.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-01, 4:22 pm

The sexy thing about the euro is the very intense Vortex sitting around Hudson bay drool



But look at the fookin cutoff in the SW gaah

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 4:27 pm

I deleted the posts about the glitchy map to reduce confusion.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-01, 11:00 pm

The high lattitude blocking in NAO region has basically disappeared from model forecasts


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-01, 11:25 pm

Bwahahahaha!

But yeah, that is a bummer.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 9:02 am

Don Sutherland optimistic:

The objective analogs centered around 2/12 indicate that the East could be colder than normal.



Should the PNA remain positive and the AO negative, that solution would be reasonable. At this time, my guess for the 2/8-15 period (#806 in this thread) appears to be on track. It should be noted that the 2/1 18z GFS is warmer, but we'll see what happens.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-02, 9:07 am

Stovepipe wrote:Don Sutherland optimistic:

The objective analogs centered around 2/12 indicate that the East could be colder than normal.



Should the PNA remain positive and the AO negative, that solution would be reasonable. At this time, my guess for the 2/8-15 period (#806 in this thread) appears to be on track. It should be noted that the 2/1 18z GFS is warmer, but we'll see what happens.

Figures this will be the one time Don is wrong. I seriously doubt that comes to fruition. Because while the AO is negative it has dumped the cold, largely, on the other side of the globe. Also while there is a +PNA it isn't acting like a true +PNA. The flow coming in from the Pac is still super fast which usually isn't the case with a +PNA. So there is no real chance for the cold to come south and settle. So while those 2 indices usually mean cold in the east, this time it seems it will not. Look at the 10 day Euro ensemble to see the awful truth.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-02, 3:46 pm

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-02, 6:17 pm

Im sort of digging the ensembles look for this storm...not showing a bunch of snow at this point but the thing here is they have came west when they were mostly showing this system offshore.

Plenty of time for trends!!




I might add that the Euro ensembles are showing a snow threat in TN around hr 210

I can haz storm? wash

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 11:52 am

Man if we could get a tad more cold air, hour 180 of the 12z GFS would be rockin and rollin.

Fantasy flakes at hour 276.

More at 372, nice!
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 1:09 pm

Unless we get a strong low coming out of the gulf, not the disorganized blob currently modeled, there won't be anything next weekend. The pv is completely cut off from the main flow, there's nothing to stretch it out and bring cold air south. Our only hope is that it crushes the western ridge and drops in the center of the country, further south. Hope for that is slim.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 1:57 pm

STOVE !!!! I need pay access to hr 132. Stat!

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 2:01 pm

Hitting F5 on accupro as fast as I can! I gotta see this tn snow on the euro. Will post asap.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 2:13 pm

Its saying surface is too warm I think... west tn and ky showing accums. I need a skew t for BNA

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 2:23 pm

Posted it in the Lounge. Close call for sure, I'll take it for now!

Gets pretty dang cold later in the run and apparently we have a west based -NAO setting up!
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 6:33 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Posted it in the Lounge. Close call for sure, I'll take it for now!

Gets pretty dang cold later in the run and apparently we have a west based -NAO setting up!

CPC NAO has just crossed the neutral line and is ever so slightly negative now



Its ON folks if that NAO continues to trend downward we will have snowstorm on our hands by around hr 180

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 10:20 pm

18z GFS showing possible phase of the Polar and subtropical jet is Dead Fookin Sexz

Although we need it to phase just a hair earlier than this...i think its too far east anyways

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 10:24 pm

LC who has been dead on these warm temps for the last month


Keep watching this space for updates on expected weather for the February 10 - 14 period. Some of the computer outlooks show storm energy organizing over Baja California, then moving into the Gulf of Mexico in about 7 to 8 days from now. This system has a chance to expand and pull in colder air, creating a widespread precipitation event for much of the eastern half of the nation. It is too early to call the possibilities for the track and conditions of the disturbance. Needless to say, however, in a winter where the words "mild" and "tranquil" have been the rule, this system offers the potential for a jolt back into February reality.


I will also be doing a blog about this storm threat tomorrow.....its a possible doozie if the cards fall together


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 10:31 pm

Mundie's got em busting out the nonograms over at American lol.
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 10:32 pm

Nonograms suck yikes

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 10:34 pm

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 10:41 pm

Its useless when a Skew t is easier to read....why they ever made this precip type gram I will never know

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-03, 11:38 pm

gfs out to 165, looks cold... with energy lurking towards the baha area, could get interesting here in a few.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-03, 11:43 pm

Toot wrote:Its useless when a Skew t is easier to read....why they ever made this precip type gram I will never know

I think it's a way to lo at the column and also the thicknesses. I've never understood thickness, but I need to read up on it a bit more. Especially since I'm considering finishing school and getting a broadcast met, or just regular met degree. I think my family has finally convinced me.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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