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Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-03, 11:45 pm

Ensmeble NEG NAO blocking in the extended near Valentines day


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-03, 11:46 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:Its useless when a Skew t is easier to read....why they ever made this precip type gram I will never know

I think it's a way to lo at the column and also the thicknesses. I've never understood thickness, but I need to read up on it a bit more. Especially since I'm considering finishing school and getting a broadcast met, or just regular met degree. I think my family has finally convinced me.

So a purple name isn't good enough for you? You just haaaaave to have a red one don't you?

console

Kidding, that is great news Mundie. Best of luck with getting the degree. Where you thinking about going?
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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-03, 11:51 pm

good luck justin, i may go ahead and do mine on line... i have been checking in on it... not a bad idea,,, hope one day take dr. greg forbes place, when he retires.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 12:16 am

Stovepipe wrote:
jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:Its useless when a Skew t is easier to read....why they ever made this precip type gram I will never know

I think it's a way to lo at the column and also the thicknesses. I've never understood thickness, but I need to read up on it a bit more. Especially since I'm considering finishing school and getting a broadcast met, or just regular met degree. I think my family has finally convinced me.

So a purple name isn't good enough for you? You just haaaaave to have a red one don't you?

console

Kidding, that is great news Mundie. Best of luck with getting the degree. Where you thinking about going?

It's not set in stone yet. But it's something I'm giving strong consideration to after my parents and my wife basically had an intervention for me and told me not to give them reasons why I shouldn't.

I'm having a beer with a local met that I've become friends with on twitter to get some info from someone who knows (and because both of us have been wanting to hang outside of twitter, but neither of us wanted to make the first move) #bromance

And in all likelihood it would be mississippi state.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 12:18 am

I was in bed, and now I'm back up, clothed, smoking cigs on the porch. Waiting on the Canadian and the euro.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 12:21 am

jmundie wrote:I was in bed, and now I'm back up, clothed, smoking cigs on the porch. Waiting on the Canadian and the euro.

We snow extremists are hardcore model watchers aint we Justin?

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 12:24 am

Toot wrote:
jmundie wrote:I was in bed, and now I'm back up, clothed, smoking cigs on the porch. Waiting on the Canadian and the euro.

We snow extremists are hardcore model watchers aint we Justin?

Absolutely

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Math/Met on 2012-02-04, 12:34 am

jmundie wrote:
And in all likelihood it would be mississippi state.

Good to hear. I hope you decide to go for it.

Would you enroll in the Bachelor’s or Master’s program? I was in their Bachelor’s program originally to satisfy the NWS requirements (took the calculus based coursed that were necessary), but I’m now in the Masters program. If you have any question regarding the program, then just let me know.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 12:47 am

I'm sure I'll have some questions. I would be doing the bachelors. I quit school when I got engaged because my wife was closer to graduating (I went for three years and had about 5 "majors" that never went anywhere.

So I assume it would take me three years to finish going part time if I take 3 classes a semester and two summer classes. Math is gonna be the issue, but luckily my little brother is a civil engineer and is crazy smart in math. When his teacher had to leave in the middle of his senior year of high school, the sub had him teach calculus, because he could read the book and just understand.... And then explain the concepts.

Anyway, back on topic... Why is the Canadian not updated on ewall?

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-04, 1:04 am

Canadian sucks, just saw it.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 1:07 am

snowdog wrote:Canadian sucks, just saw it.

Yep but it came west and now has the miller a but its likey to trend colder as models have been hinting at trending colder...both of the last two storms trended colder and this one will likely do it also as the NAO is officially negative and the AO also....There is a higher than normal chance for a miller a during this timeframe the key will be the phasing of the polar jet and the Subtrop jet as to who gets the snow and im pretty confident that someone in the east will get snow with the valentines sytem



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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 1:11 am

snowdog wrote:Canadian sucks, just saw it.

It's closing off the ridge up in Canada causing the vortex not to phase and get pulled southward.... Which is what the 12z gfs was doing. Gfs, ukie, no gaps and 12 z euro all have a full latitude ridge.

That's gonna be key for us.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 1:13 am

jmundie wrote:
snowdog wrote:Canadian sucks, just saw it.

It's closing off the ridge up in Canada causing the vortex not to phase and get pulled southward.... Which is what the 12z gfs was doing. Gfs, ukie, no gaps and 12 z euro all have a full latitude ridge.

That's gonna be key for us.

yeah its def not handling the PNA correctly

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 2:54 am

0z GFS ensembles hinting at powerhouse miller a with cold air in Reach on Feb 11th-12th.THIS IS NOT VOODOLAND ANYMORE THIS IS A LEGIT THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SUBSTANCIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

This has just upped my confidence in a Miller a that turns into a Noreaster....This could be the big dog folks. Dont pay much attention to small details of these individual ensembles...Just know that the mean track would a classic Miller a That would be favorable for Mid and east TN /Western NC.



One more run like those and I will be on board...cold air will not be a problem according to these ensembles mean track.



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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 9:21 am

I can Haz snow storm?


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-04, 2:09 pm

You can Haz Winter Cancel. yikes

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 2:13 pm

snowdog wrote:You can Haz Winter Cancel. yikes


Meh...I now fully believe we have entered the one and only good month for winter weather this season around here....A Cold Febuary has extremely good support now. I say game on!!

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 3:13 pm

Well - as expected things are bouncing around a bit. Euro still looks decent, a couple of light snow threats next week... Verbatim would stay in Kentucky.

The top of the pna ridge closes off, which screws up a perfectly good setup, by sheering out a s/w which would, ostensibly give us a good chance for a gulf system. This is much like the gfs and Canadian... So it's probably correct, but I'll need 0z to confirm before I bail entirely. If a gulf system forms (and some gfs ensembles still show it) it could be a different story.

The pv is dropping more into the center of the country instead of the east, which is good for middle and west tennessees chances (better trough axis) but because the pna ridge breaks down the cold quickly moves east instead of continuing to dive south.

All in all, I'll take the 850 line just to nashvilles north and multiple disturbances coming through over what we've been seeing. If any of them amplify a bit it would change the entire look. Cold still comes down toward Friday Saturday but it's not as deep as yesterday's 12z run, and a little more transient.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 3:17 pm

Thanks Mundie and I agree with most everything you said...its an exciting look

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 3:39 pm

I reviewed the GFS ensembles (euro ensembles coming out in a second)

GFS ensembles never break down the PNA and then build, weaken slightly, and then really build a negative nao. AO stays seriously negative the entire run through 384.

If the euro ensembles agree with this, then it will be close to time to get excited. Especially given the models recent idea of splitting the pv over canada. If that occurs as the trough drops into the center of the country, instead of it occurring and moving into alaska or siberia due to the pna ridge breaking down, then it would be game on in a hurry. Thing is, the reason it's splitting may be because the pna ridge is breaking down. Not sure on that.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-04, 3:53 pm

I agree with snowdog models have slowly trended warmer since the 12z runs yesterday


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 4:03 pm

Bruce I accidentally messed your post up buddy...sorry for the technical difficulties. But actually the GFS ensembles are about the same or maybe even colder... the GFS ensembles have been consitent while the euro keeps flopping back and forth

GEFS Departures from normal


Mid range departure from normal


Long range departure from normal

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-04, 5:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:I agree with snowdog models have slowly trended warmer since the 12z runs yesterday

They aren't trending warmer so much as the Euro is staying the course with it's previous solution. It did however flirt with the colder GFS solution the other day. Day 10 Euro Ens mean still showing a mostly zonal flow. Day 10 GFS Ens. mean do not look too much better.

The GFS is really the model that is flip flopping all over the place. It has a different solution almost every run and has been doing this for about a week. It will show frigid one run then above avg the next. Rinse, wash, repeat.

It's going to be hard to get a frigid pattern without a) the pac flow slowing down (which eats the ridge alive) or b) a nice healthy -NAO to force that vortex further south. It may be hard to get b without a.

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 6:11 pm

The GFS ensembles have suggested a cold look every since I started this thread...those dual blocking signals are documented back on the first or second page and the 12z today still had those.

I have no idea which one is correct but the GFS ensembles have definately been more consistant with a mean trough in the east IMO....Its very hard for me to ignore at this point but i really dont expect any deep cold... but there might be enough for some mischief in about a week.

Nobody can say if we get an event or not at this point. But Sustained cold for longer than a week or two is probably not going to happen. These monster southwest ULLS have killed us this winter.

In time we'll see if its more false signals or a happy ending to a warm winter. Smile

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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 6:16 pm

18z gfs is close to something great rock on







Its actually suppressing the southern stream...I like where we are setting at this point


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Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

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