WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Page 4 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 6:23 pm

12z unmet didn't cut off the high in Alaska. Kept the full latitude ridge.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 7:18 pm

jmundie wrote:12z unmet didn't cut off the high in Alaska. Kept the full latitude ridge.

Ya..its pretty sexy at 144 via 500mb heights

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 8:12 pm

Good writeup from JKL


ONE THING INTERESTING TO NOTE HOWEVER. THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO
SEEM IN AGREEMENT ON...IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
. IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS AS THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SAY IT WILL...MORE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE MID LATITUDES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL THE
CASE BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH
...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO IN
THE DGEX AND CANADIAN MODELS. THIS WOULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR
SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
FEBRUARY. THUS...AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMTH...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE PATTERN COULD BE SHIFTING TO A COLDER ONE...AND PERHAPS MORE
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 9:09 pm

Its a copy and pasta kinda night

LC talks about the dual blocking anomalies that I have referred to several times in this thread

No, your eyes have not been deceiving you. All of the numerical models have flipped and flopped wildly over the past week or so. The usually consistent ECMWF version has been notably horrid, having issues with both the subtropical jet stream and the sequence of storms digging southeastward from the Pacific Ocean. You kind of expect the GFS model suite to have issues with many conflicting systems (split flow in a La Nina episode....), but the European panels are very much out to lunch of late and should NOT be trusted to present an accurate picture of weather past Day 5. One feature that we can gather will be a player in the medium range is the Hudson Bay vortex. IF the cAk gyre acts in concert with the disturbance drifting into Baja California (which I think is likely), then we cannot rule out a potentially impressive winter storm across the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard (see more below).

The 18z GFS model suite confirmed what many were thinking about the threat for a Gulf Coaster + Nor'easter storm event in the February 11 - 14 time frame. The operational American model has been touching on this idea for some time now, and I suspect that the actual case of cyclogenesis will be stronger than what has been depicted, perhaps greatly so. The ensemble series at both 12z and 18z on Saturday maintain some sort of ridging along the West Coast while hinting at some expression of -AO and -NAO styled ridge placement. The clincher in this is that the standard European version shows a sharply-defined positive height anomaly into Greenland in the 6 - 10 day range. While such a signal does not make a East Coast winter storm threat a certainty, the model may be trying to express the danger of 500MB height falls directly beneath the ridge complex. If so, the potential for pressure falls and heavy precipitation would increase.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 10:26 pm

Has anyone looked at the 18z ensemble members in the 6-10 day period? Really, really cold. Coldest air I've seen modeled this year cold. -33 850s in the upper Midwest cold.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-04, 10:26 pm

Has anyone looked at the 18z ensemble members in the 6-10 day period? Really, really cold. Coldest air I've seen modeled this year cold. -33 850s in the upper Midwest cold.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-04, 10:28 pm

Yep I posted them in the winter pattern thread...damn sexy Is all i can say

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-05, 12:05 am

Robert roundup after 0z GFS:

snow for the higher elevations of the southern Apps Monday night. Not much, but a synoptic system and just cold enough, so for this season thats' worth a mention.
the other system to watch is the strong s/w or closed low dropping south from Canada at 120 hours. The European a few days ago had this crossing the Tnn. Valley and Carolinas . Its very powerful to start but the GFS loses it instantly at 120. Meanwhile the flow from Canada is diving south, southwest, as the ridge tips in northwest Canada. So cold is lurking from around I-40 from Ok. to NC....the Gulf could open and back with a system to watch.

GFS almost totally absorbs the southern stream, and has been inching toward that for awhile now. Only time and a couple more runs will tell though, but if it does, then a major East Coast storm will run up the coast, as a snowmaker in the Deep South/Tn Valley to Apps and eventually East Coast. You can't rule it out until we know that the Baja system hangs well back and detached from the flow. GFS is extremely close.

Atleast a storm, probably the first east coast snow storm this season, but I distrust the GFS on which wave does the trick. There are going to be changes with this, similar to what just happened (and will happen Monday) with the energy hanging back. If the model focuses on the wrong s/w to develop the storm then more areas will experience a big event with the second s/w coming in from Mexico. One of the closest calls to fully phased I've seen since Christmas storm 2 years ago. Definitely a possibilty since its that close, but keep your expectations low in phased events south of DC.

The GFS has been on this for a while showing a possibility. Its actually not nearly as warm to start as it was looking earlier (thank you height falls and Monday's wave). But to get the 2 streams to merge will be a feat. However this has been shown to be one extremely tall PNA ridge by both models for atime now, so we'll see. Can't rule out a major event but odds are always against a phased event this far south, but it does happen time to time (Jan 87). If the models hold on to that extremely strong s/w topping the ridge (remember ecmwf had it several runs as well--just different track), and the closed off low in the Baja or Mexico is withing grabbing distance, then there would be a phase and a huge event developing on the East coast. However, what could go wrong is just as big. If the Baja system is too far removed, which is very possible, then we're looking at a dry cold frontal passage. Also, for areas east of the Apps to get snow in this setup is a long shot since the cold has to cross the Apps. Its' much more likely west of the Apps and right to the mtns. However, one good thing this particular time is so far its not that warm aloft since the Baja system is extremely far south to begin with. An ideal situation would be the Baja low develops a nice surface low and backing winds once it reaches the central gulf and forms a wave that travels offshore Savannah up the coast. Odds are against it exactly but its close.

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-05, 1:08 am

Anyone staying up for the euro?

sauce
avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-05, 1:12 am

GFS ensemble mean:

avatar
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 41
Location : Knoxville, TN

View user profile http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-05, 1:31 am

Euro out to 120 on instant maps...nothing all that exciting. Really deep vortex up in northeast Canada but we don't get to taste it. Cutoff in the SW is touring Mexico. Crap so far.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 6:24 am

snowdog wrote:Euro out to 120 on instant maps...nothing all that exciting. Really deep vortex up in northeast Canada but we don't get to taste it. Cutoff in the SW is touring Mexico. Crap so far.

HPC has been abandoning the euro for a while now in the extended


REGARDING SPECIFIC MODEL PREFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES FURTHEST
FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3/WED.
THUS...HAVE NOT USED THE GFS IN THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS
DESPITE BECOMING MORE PREFERRED IN THE WEST BY DAY 6/SAT...AS IT
MAINTAINS THE RIDGE IN A MORE PREFERRED ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE...A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE PREFERRED
CHOICE FOR DAY 3-5 BEFORE ABANDONING THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
ALTOGETHER BY DAY 6
...AS IT APPEARS TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST TOO QUICKLY.INSTEAD...RECOMMEND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE 00Z GFS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

JAMES

Here is the HPC day 7 500mb heights forecast





0z GFS has our snowstorm as a cold front gets hung up to our east and creates an active baroclinic zone where a strong low pressure system forms and rides up this boundary covering east TN in snow





After this washes out we have the cold canadian highs that move in dropping the east into the deep freeze




0z ensembles are pretty sexy also




6z op just barely misses us....It may be time to get those big dog pics out

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-05, 7:48 am

Good to finally see something positive to talk about (other than the AO and NAO, which is a negative when they are positive).
Just getting caught up after a busy week so enjoying the good read here. On a side note has anyone else had issues with pages loading properly? My phone and tablet have been freezing up on this site and was just able to log in after several tries the last day or so. Would tap log in and page would sit idle then redirect back to log in.
Seems to be ok now.
Toot, Stove, Jmun I 'm counting on yall to bring in 1 decent snow event so don't disappoint! Let me know what I can do in Chatty to help bring it in. I switched to Bud Light Platinum last night to help usher in the cold. At 6% alcohol it did the trick so lets see if the cold and snow come as a result.


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-05, 7:54 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : typo)

_________________
Sincerely from the filthy one,


Grandpa Nasty (formerly Uncle Nasty)
avatar
Grandpa Nasty
Founding Member

Posts : 189
Join date : 2012-01-09
Location : Chattanooga, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 8:37 am

Wow on last nights runs. Ensembles really want to phase this joker. dgex brings -20 850s to kentucky, and a light snow event for tennessee as well.

If Euro (and UKMET, for that matter) are correct in holding the energy back right on top of baja mexico, then we get a transient cold front, with maybe some light snows. If they are wrong, and holding that energy back too long (which is entirely possible, especially given the euro's bias to do so) then it WILL get extremely cold by the end of the week, and a major snowstorm from nashville to boston (w accumulations kinda in the shape of a J) is a very real possibility.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 8:39 am

GEFS temp departure from normal about day 6



Remember the ensemble mean is just a average of all the individual members and wiont usually show the extreme warm or cold that is possible unless you have unanimous agreement from all ensembles which never really happens. Any one member could be right especially if it has some support from other members...but in this case the mean seems pretty likely IMO

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 8:45 am

Yep - you can see the members that phase the storm, and the ones where the cold passes by the southern shortwave (they are less cold)

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 9:13 am

jmundie wrote: dgex brings -20 850s to kentucky, and a light snow event for tennessee as well.

I noticed the 0z GFS did the same Mundie as there is an area of -20 850s near the OH/KY border...thats a pretty cold look with a full lattitude trough in the east


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-05, 10:02 am

The HPC map Toot posted looked almost nothing like their write-up. Their map shows no ridging and looks nothing like the GFS 00z Day 7 500 mb map and somewhat resembles the 00z Euro Ens Mean map. The HPC map looks like mostly zonal flow. More so than any of the other model maps...even the Euro Ens. They talk about the op Euro breaking down the ridge too fast...I don't even see a western ridge on their map at least not one of any significance.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 10:09 am

I blogged about this threat a little while ago...thought I would post that blog here too.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


After what has been an extremely warm winter things are changing as part of the Polar vortex relocates itself near Southeastern Canada. This feature is the most important feature in changing the warm pattern that we have been in. It may not change long but it could be long enough for some excitement.

This feature may combine itself with a couple of other large scale features to produce a Noreaster the weekend before Valentines day. It all depends on where a subtropical jet stream shortwave starts to phase with the polar jet stream and its related vortex. This will set up a baroclinic zone along the east coast and a powerful low pressure system may form and ride up this zone in Miller A fashion.

The GFS has been the most consistant model showing this possibility and this remains the biggest eastern US winter threat of the season. The trend all winter has been for these southern stream shortwaves to cuttoff in the southwestern United States and remain cuttoff... but this shortwave is modeled to continue across the southern part of the conus without getting cuttoff from the polar jet and will likely phase with the northern stream at some point.

At the same time a northern stream wave of energy is moving across the northern tier of the US in tandem with the southern one. This will likely result in the most signifigant snowstorm in the eastern US this season but where the snow falls has yet to be determined. At this time guidance suggests a Gulf low threat and I have a higher than normal confidence level in accumulating snow in the Tennesseee valley.

Nothing written in stone yet but there is certainly a threat of winter weather in the eastern US near Valentines day or a couple of days before...the exact track of the stormcenter will decide who sees the accumulating snow.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Toot on 2012-02-05, 12:41 pm

BOOM goes the dynamite on the 12z CMC

Baroclinic zone setting up due to northern stream energy with snow breaking out along this zone from west TN to New England

Feb11 Hr132


At Hr 144 energy is continuing to dig deep and a surface reflection is forming in the gulf..snow is also intensifying in the TN and OH valley thanks to northern stream forcing


The CMC has phased energies by Feb12th Hr156 but is a little late for an all out blizzard here but the upper level energy is still producing snow across TN as the Miller A has turned the corner north-northeast


By Hr160 we have a mature cyclone near the NC coast and the deformation band is still affecting East TN and western NC



Probably a few inches around here if that verifies drool

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-05, 12:49 pm

Looks like a clipperish type system for Middle-TN, maybe an inch or two if ground temps cooperate.

snowdog
Winter Specialist

Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 39
Location : Mount Juliet, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-05, 1:29 pm

snowdog wrote:Looks like a clipperish type system for Middle-TN, maybe an inch or two if ground temps cooperate.
Better then anything we have seen all year. I would be happy with that.

_________________
GO VOLS!!!
avatar
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 21
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-05, 3:18 pm

There is now a tropical disturbance in the gulf.

This just got interesting.....

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-05, 3:26 pm

jmundie wrote:There is now a tropical disturbance in the gulf.

This just got interesting.....
yea, thats how juicy the gom is man... very warm waters already.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 55
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-05, 3:28 pm

Holy crap there really is. This is bizarre.

_________________
GO VOLS!!!
avatar
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 21
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Arctic Front With Possible Gulf low Feb 10th-11th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 10, 11, 12  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum