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Spring 2012 weather discussion

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-04-25, 9:55 am

Whoa, killer pic!
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 10:06 am

Awesome pic, Toot. Love the progression from green trees to snow capped white. You only see that a few times a year if you're lucky--in the spring, and again in the fall.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 5:20 pm

Little cluster of showers/t-storms heading toward Knoxville right now. It's generally moving east-southeast. Nothing severe at the moment.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 6:04 pm

Looks like one decent cell around downtown Knoxville. The rest of this "cluster" appears to be mostly general showers.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 7:08 pm

Had sprinkles with one rumble of thunder. pffft
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-25, 7:14 pm

Had a few rumbles and sprinkles here also...yayy!! Hopefully some better action rolls thru later.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 7:15 pm

You still over in the Cocke Co area?
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-25, 7:19 pm

Toot wrote:Had a few rumbles and sprinkles here also...yayy!! Hopefully some better action rolls thru later.

I hope so, but if an MCS is going to develop, it better start getting it's act together. Don't see much upstream right now. Of course, they can blow up extremely fast, if the instability is there.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-25, 7:36 pm

WxFreak wrote:You still over in the Cocke Co area?
Im currently staying in Hamblen county as it has become more convenient for travel to work.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-25, 7:58 pm

Mammatus clouds outside of MRX this evening...from their FB page

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-25, 9:43 pm

Based on the WRF the MCS looks to be a little farther to the west and my area could be affected by it.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-26, 12:01 am

I seen that Adam.... be interesting to see just how much bowing that thing takes on if it forms like the wright wx wrf says

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-26, 1:47 am

Right now I'll take anykind of weather, except for what I have. Boring. Jeesh, some rain please. Something! The wind is blowing tonight so that is nice. Strange smell tho,, ahh, that's my dog breathing on me. Damn dog breath! rfl
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-04-26, 7:31 am

WRF was wrong and the storms went east like I expected. In the meantime the southern half of tennessee should be more in the action today because the frontal boundry is pushing south into tennessee and storms should develop on the south side of the front.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-28, 4:19 pm

Starting to look like a rather uneventful week here. This pattern isn't going to help the dry conditions prevalent in Mid/West Tennessee.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
302 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...18Z SURFACE MAP WOULD PLACE THE WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME NE TN AND PERHAPS THROUGH LEE AND WISE COUNTIES OF SW VA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH MOVEMENT MOSTLY EAST. I KEPT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOW POPS OVER SW VA AND JUST INTO NRN MOST COUNTIES OF E TN. CONSIDERING HOW MUCH FOG OCCURRED OVER SE TN FRIDAY NIGHT...I CHOSE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG AGAIN FOR THAT AREA. MOS MINS LOOKED REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUD COVER OVER NRN AREAS TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...GIVEN THE DRY LOOK TO LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...I OPTED TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS FOR SUNDAY. I AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD BE (OR IF IT ACTUALLY DRIFTS BACK THIS FAR SOUTH?). DROPPED POPS FOR SE TN/SW NC AND LOWERED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...AND MAINLY AFTERNOON.
THIS ALSO MESHED BETTER WITH NWS NEIGHBORS GRIDS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS HIGHS (GFS WAS FEW DEGS WARMER).


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CONVECTION INTO THE MRX CWA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIMITING CHANCE OF
CONVECTION..
.WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS MAINLY NORTH AND ACROSS OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO DRY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

As dry as parts of mid Tennessee have been over the last two months, we'll probably see some of that area slip into D1 status (moderate drought) if little rain actually falls over the next week.

From the U.S. Drought Monitor:
The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: During the past week, light to moderate rain (less than 2 inches) fell across the region. However, these amounts are not nearly enough to offset short-term deficits and increase the low stream flows. Accordingly, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded across western and central sections of Kentucky and central Tennessee. Moderate drought conditions (D1) were also expanded in western Kentucky to include the Paducah area.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 8:06 am

Summer still a month away, but going to feel like it's already here this week. Widely scattered convection will be possible starting late Monday or Tuesday as the weak front makes a return visit. Sleep
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-04-29, 8:08 am

Wow. You woke me up, to tell me to go back to sleep! rfl
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-29, 8:51 am

Wouldn't. B surprised 2 c a strong MCC/MCS ROLL THROUGH late 2 morrow

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 9:05 am

If the front remains as active as it has been over the weekend, we'll probably see something along those lines. For some reason MRX giving the same blah discussion they always do. I think they could just copy and paste most of their AFD's. Rolling Eyes
Looks like Monday evening/Tuesday has possibilities for something interesting. Am I vague enough? scratch
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 9:18 am

Case in point. JKL (to our north) gives us 7 paragraphs this morning. GSP (to our southeast) gives us 7 paragraphs. And that's not including the aviation part of the discussion. MRX gives us one paragraph for the short term, and one for the long term discussion. The aviation discussion is one sentence. I think they are taking too many smoke breaks.
Heck, even I get bored after reading it. cliffdive


Last edited by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 9:44 am

Looks like our area has been broad brushed with 20% POPs for early this week. Right over the border in KY, Middlesboro has 30-50% POPs for Monday night/Tuesday.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-04-29, 1:40 pm

WxFreak wrote:Case in point. JKL (to our north) gives us 7 paragraphs this morning. GSP (to our southeast) gives us 7 paragraphs. And that's not including the aviation part of the discussion. MRX gives us one paragraph for the short term, and one for the long term discussion. The aviation discussion is one sentence. I think they are taking too many smoke breaks.
Heck, even I get bored after reading it. cliffdive



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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-04-29, 2:34 pm

LMAO. Oh well. Guess we just have a laid back office here. beer Laughing
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by VFL on 2012-04-29, 2:58 pm

Already having to put water on my yard, hope Monday/Tuesday works out for my area. After that it maybe a while.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Reb on 2012-04-29, 2:59 pm

welcome to the board VFL! post more Very Happy. weather looking slightly boring and dry over the next week or two at least, bleh

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