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Spring 2012 weather discussion

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Dyersburg Weather
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-29, 3:15 pm

Welcome VFL! Yeah, it's a tad dry for so early in the spring. Some places have gotten more rain than others. Hopefully, this pattern will change before summer.
Feel free to post. Very laid back atmosphere here. Basketball
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Post by Toot 2012-04-29, 3:26 pm

WxFreak wrote:LMAO. Oh well. Guess we just have a laid back office here. beer Laughing

Im sure they dont break a sweat or anything Laughing but they used to be alot worse with the graphics and the AFD's. They are still a very warm biased WFO (Possibly more warm biased than any other WFO that I have seen) but they have actually improved their writeups..graphics and their media aspects to the public.

They looked like roses last winter because of their chronic warm bias which actually worked in their favor the whole winter....But they were pretty laughable the two winters before. Other than that I think they have become one of the most accurate WFO's during spring and summer. Outstanding office but IMO they have room for improvement in the fall and winter
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-29, 4:47 pm

Looks like Tuesday is our best shot for convection this week, per MRX:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND OUR WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT THAT MUCH WOULD DEVELOP ANYAWAY...AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN VERY LACKING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY AND I THINK THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...GFS IS PROBABLY A LITTLE ROBUST WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION A BIT WEAKER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT I JUST DON`T SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED TSRA. THUS...I KEPT OUR MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE NRN AREAS PLUS THE SMOKIES. NAM COULD VERY WELL BE CORRECT...WHICH WOULD YIELD DRY AGAIN. A BIT WARMER EACH DAY...BUT I STAYED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS. THIS STILL PRODUCES NEAR RECORD HIGH
FOR TRI FOR 4/30...WITH RECORD HIGH 86 DEGREES IN 1986 AND 1970. LOWER 90S ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR CHA/TYS...SO OUT OF REACH FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MRX CWA...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE BOUNDARY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. KEPT THINGS DRY ON SUNDAY THROUGH MODELS HINTING AT AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY.


WxFreak
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Post by VFL 2012-04-29, 4:51 pm

Thanks guys. I'm a little undereducated so i'll do more lurking than posting but I love the site. I was a member at TWX but there are too many attitudes over there, so i'm thankfull for the new site.
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Post by Reb 2012-04-29, 4:57 pm

im not either VFL, i just enjoy learning about weather and goofing around. be sure to tell your friends about the site! pals
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Post by Toot 2012-04-29, 5:08 pm

VFL wrote:Thanks guys. I'm a little undereducated so i'll do more lurking than posting but I love the site. I was a member at TWX but there are too many attitudes over there, so i'm thankfull for the new site.

Im sure you will get more local info here as opposed to there...IMO its almost west TN biased over there...I try to include the whole state here Smile
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Post by Reb 2012-04-29, 5:11 pm

def west tn biased. they didn't include east tn in anything, really.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-29, 5:42 pm

VFL wrote:Thanks guys. I'm a little undereducated so i'll do more lurking than posting but I love the site. I was a member at TWX but there are too many attitudes over there, so i'm thankfull for the new site.

For the most part we are all amateur wx watchers here with little formal education in meteorology (there are a few exceptions). We are here because we share a love for weather phenomenon, and enjoy the company of other weather geeks. It's a very laid back place, so feel free to ask questions, or post your own opinions. It's all good. rock on
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Post by VFL 2012-04-29, 5:57 pm

WxFreak wrote:
VFL wrote:Thanks guys. I'm a little undereducated so i'll do more lurking than posting but I love the site. I was a member at TWX but there are too many attitudes over there, so i'm thankfull for the new site.

For the most part we are all amateur wx watchers here with little formal education in meteorology (there are a few exceptions). We are here because we share a love for weather phenomenon, and enjoy the company of other weather geeks. It's a very laid back place, so feel free to ask questions, or post your own opinions. It's all good. rock on

Thanks guys all of you all for the warm welcome.
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Post by Toot 2012-04-29, 7:54 pm

Pretty majorish type heatwave coming for the alot of the upper oh valley and GL's region. torch

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 7 D4
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Post by Reb 2012-04-29, 8:01 pm

ew yuck glad its a tad north of us!
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-29, 8:06 pm

Looks like more high temp records are gonna fall. Hopefully, what you posted on the other thread will rescue us (strong cold front.) I'm not ready for summer heat yet. Esp. after the last two blazing summers we endured.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-30, 6:54 am

No record highs here today, but it will sure feel more like summer with temps in the upper 80's, and some humidity thrown in for good measure. Looks like tomorrow we'll have a "decent" shot at some thunderstorms. MRX has us at 30%. JKL has southeast Ky at 50%. According to MRX, the further north you are, the better chance of rain you'll have.
WILL ALSO KEEP HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
.

Hopefully, the front will be active tomorrow, as we really do need a good shot of moisture. This early season warmth dries out the top few inches of soil pretty fast.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-30, 9:04 am

Been reading some AFD's from surrounding NWS offices. Hard to get a feel on how extensive the convection will be, but the general consensus stalls the front somewhere near the Ohio River or northern Kentucky. I guess that’s why our POPs are placed at 30% for tomorrow—the front is stuck pretty far to our north, along with the more widespread storms. This current pattern is more like mid to late June, when fronts start to have a hard time even getting near us.

At the very least, our “cap” should be sufficiently eroded tomorrow to allow scattered storms to fire randomly around the area. Some will see rain; some will not, unfortunately. If your garden gets wet, consider yourself fortunate!

There could be a few isolated storms this evening in the high elevations. But isolated is the key word.
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Post by Reb 2012-04-30, 11:34 am

87 forecasted for my area today torch
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-30, 8:56 pm

Dad-gummit. Had to turn on the air conditioner tonight! burn
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-04-30, 9:11 pm

Skeeters are loving this weather. I just got bit like 6 times in an hour! First world problems...
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Post by Adam2014 2012-04-30, 9:49 pm

WxFreak wrote:Dad-gummit. Had to turn on the air conditioner tonight! burn
First World Problem lol.
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Post by Toot 2012-04-30, 9:58 pm

Adam2014 wrote:
WxFreak wrote:Dad-gummit. Had to turn on the air conditioner tonight! burn
First World Problem lol.

Lol...I couldnt resist

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 7 3p1yl2
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Post by WxFreak 2012-04-30, 10:09 pm

facepalm lapat
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Post by WxFreak 2012-05-01, 6:47 am

MRX not too optimistic about rain chances today. They've reduced them to 20%. 30% if you live near the KY border. Guess if I was a gamblin' man, I'd bet against us getting much. Good thing that is one vice I don't have. beer

Anywho...already a strong cluster of storms in south central Kentucky this morning. But they are generally moving northeast. Too bad our 'northwest' flow flew the coop. Nevertheless, I have a feeling coverage may be a little better than 20%. But what do I know.

If we don't get rain today, looks like our next best chance will come this weekend. Ridge retrogrades back over the Southeast U.S. after today. The three H's making an early appearance: hazy, hot, & humid until a frontal system makes a run at us this weekend.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH BREAKING DOWN SOUTHEASTERN STATES RIDGE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STAYED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/CMC WHICH ARE LESS EAGER TO BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND THE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THEREFORE USED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STAYED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. STAYED RATHER CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN HAD TO ADJUST SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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Post by Toot 2012-05-01, 8:55 am

Spring 2012 weather discussion - Page 7 3p29gj

lol!!
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Post by WxFreak 2012-05-01, 9:28 am

LOL!! Yep, it's only May 1st, and already talking about "hot" weather. Hmmm...that global warming thing starting to take on a new light. scratch But I digress. afro

If this is our summer pattern, I have a feeling by July we'll be ready for winter in a BIG way.



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Post by WxFreak 2012-05-01, 1:37 pm

Radar not looking to impressive at the moment. Sky has some building cumulus, but also nothing impressive. Looks like the mountains once again have the best shot at some convection (and far northeast TN) unless something gives and we get some development in the valley.
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Post by Reb 2012-05-01, 1:50 pm

possibly a little something developing middle tn, but there are some nice little poppers north of nashville that just popped up as well.
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