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Spring 2012 weather discussion

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-09, 8:56 am

Toot wrote:
LMFAO!!

Surgical precision on that image play. Bravo!

lapat
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-09, 8:57 am

Toot strikes again. rfl
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-09, 9:05 am

WxFreak wrote:Toot strikes again. rfl

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-09, 9:07 am

lol..I thought it was appropriate..Anyways... if this pattern sticks around a while (and I think its mostly here to stay) the nails are being driven into the coffin of any organized spring Tornado outbreak here in the SE. Which could be a good or a bad thing depending on your view.

Maybe we can get some decent action come cane season!!

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-09, 9:29 am

After last year, most wouldn’t complain. At least I will refrain, as long as we get rain, and Toot, a ‘cane.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-09, 5:25 pm

Coastal low ramping up in response to the negative NAO


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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-09, 10:47 pm

Toot wrote:lol..I thought it was appropriate..Anyways... if this pattern sticks around a while (and I think its mostly here to stay) the nails are being driven into the coffin of any organized spring Tornado outbreak here in the SE. Which could be a good or a bad thing depending on your view.

Maybe we can get some decent action come cane season!!
well yall know my view on this... mad

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-05-09, 10:51 pm

Toot wrote:This type of pattern is great in the winter but is totally boring to me.. during spring/summer. pale
+ 1

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-10, 3:10 pm

Looked at the models this afternoon...They said "Nothing to see here...move along." facepalm

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-11, 8:25 am

Don Sutherland:

Some morning thoughts....

1. May has started warm in much of the U.S. and Canada. Central Canada, a portion of western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and New England are exceptions. There, cool weather has prevailed.

2. The SOI has been positive for 7 consecutive days, the 30-day moving average has gone positive, and the 90-day moving average remains slightly negative. With some exceptions, usually for stronger El Niño events, the transition to an El Niño can be discontinuous, with bursts of westerly winds that weaken the easterly trade winds followed by reversals. It's still too soon to be confident that an El Niño will develop during or after the summer, though the modeling favors an El Niño over Neutral ENSO conditions. Later MEI data could provide insight.

3. The ensembles show persistent heat in the Southwestern portion of the U.S. Over time, that area of heat is forecast to slowly expand. Some past analogs for May had the warmest anomalies relative to normal (not necessarily excessive heat) occurring after May 20, sometimes close to the end of the month.

4. Even a delayed El Niño would not necessarily mean an active hurricane season. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index, which measures the average SSTA in the region bounded by 5.5°N to 23.5°N and 15°W to 57.5°W, remains cool. The last year in which the TNA had cool spring anomalies was 2009. 2009 also saw the development of an El Niño. There were 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. There were an additional 2 tropical depressions. The 2009 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) figure for the Atlantic Basin was 53. The first tropical system was TD 1, which formed on May 28, 2009. The last was Hurricane Ida, which formed on November 4. Hence, at least at this point in time, it appears that a foundation for a less active than normal tropical season may be emerging. There may also be some risk of an early tropical system.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-12, 9:27 am

Expecting about 1-3 inches of rain from about Nashville eastward

OHX has issued an SPS on the frog strangler No


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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Math/Met on 2012-05-13, 12:35 pm

Parts of East Tennessee are experiencing some downsloping today. Camp Creek has recorded wind gusts to around 50mph. Based on the wind profile, these gusts have a downslope component. That will likely decrease the rain totals today for the areas that normally experience southeasterly downslope issues.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-13, 5:46 pm

Math/Met wrote:Parts of East Tennessee are experiencing some downsloping today. Camp Creek has recorded wind gusts to around 50mph. Based on the wind profile, these gusts have a downslope component. That will likely decrease the rain totals today for the areas that normally experience southeasterly downslope issues.

Valley areas of central/north east TN have not seen nearly as much rain as was expected by the models. Local NWS also stated we'd see about 1-2 inches of rain with this system. Unless we lose the downsloping, we'll be lucky to see a quarter inch before the trough departs.


Last edited by WxFreak on 2012-05-13, 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-13, 5:48 pm

I got 1-1.5 inches of much needed rain!

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-13, 5:52 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I got 1-1.5 inches of much needed rain!

Yeah, this system has been a BIG help for dry areas of middle TN.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 7:23 pm

Ive been in Sevierville all weekend and it has rained non stop about all day..No way of measuring it but I imagine there has been at least an inch or two of rain today...and its still pouring.

RAIN RAIN...GO AWAY gaah

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-13, 7:54 pm

Toot wrote:Ive been in Sevierville all weekend and it has rained non stop about all day..No way of measuring it but I imagine there has been at least an inch or two of rain today...and its still pouring.

RAIN RAIN...GO AWAY gaah

I live 5 miles outside of Sevierville. Rain has been on the light side here off an on all day. I had 0.06" in the rain gauge this morning. I've got .24" in the cylinder now. Current radar estimates has everyone outside of the mountains between a trace and 0.30." Areas near the NC border are closer to a half an inch. From what I see on MRX radar estimates, no one in the valley has gotten close to an inch as of 8 p.m., except for areas just east of Chattanooga.

Officially at TYS, 0.31" has been recorded as of 5 p.m.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 8:15 pm

Freak..Im over near the Cocke county line in Sevier county...I have no way of measuring but I assure you there has been at least an inch of rain here. It may be a local enhancement..IDK

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-13, 8:38 pm

That could be. Didn't say your particular locale couldn't have seen it, just that the majority of us valley dwellers haven't gotten close to an inch yet. popcorn

A friend of mine who lives between Morristown, Tn and Middlesboro, Ky (north of Bean Station) said it was mostly a drizzle there today. Most valley locations have been hindered rain-wise by at least some downsloping off the mountains.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-05-13, 9:37 pm

When we were driving through Chattanooga there was hardly any rain at all but then as we went up the mountain it was raining pretty good. Definately some upsloping and downsloping going on there.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-13, 9:54 pm

WxFreak wrote:
A friend of mine who lives between Morristown, Tn and Middlesboro, Ky (north of Bean Station) said it was mostly a drizzle there today. Most valley locations have been hindered rain-wise by at least some downsloping off the mountains.

I just got to Morristown and it does seem relatively dry compared to where I was at. I just hope the bulk of the rain is gone when I wake up in the morning. Glad to have the rain...but I will also be glad to see it leave..bleh!

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Math/Met on 2012-05-13, 10:48 pm

WxFreak wrote:
Valley areas of central/north east TN have not seen nearly as much rain as was expected by the models. Local NWS also stated we'd see about 1-2 inches of rain with this system. Unless we lose the downsloping, we'll be lucky to see a quarter inch before the trough departs.

Southern Greene County is probably one of the worst spots for southeasterly downsloping winds (the notorious high winds in the Camp Creek area being evidence of that). That partially explains why I’ve only recorded .16 inches so far today. We’ve only had occasional very light rain today.

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-14, 6:23 am

You can see further evidence of downsloping this morning. Overnight, Knox County and points southwest have had over an inch of rain per MRX radar estimates. Meanwhile, there is still a big "hole" of less than half an inch in parts of Sevier, Jefferson, Cocke and into Greene Counties. Definite rain shadow. I've seen it countless times since moving here. As the LP pivots around us this morning, we should lose the south/southeast winds eating away at the precip in the usual downslope areas.

This system has the feel of an early fall system, instead of a late spring one.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-14, 6:45 am

Checking the rain gauge, I've finally just got to a half an inch with this system. Still raining while I was out checking the cylinder.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-14, 8:13 am

I'm getting the heaviest rain of all weekend, this morning. Occasional downpours, followed by light showers.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

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