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Spring 2012 weather discussion

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-23, 1:32 pm

Radar pretty quiet at the moment, but I do notice some moisture rotating southwest toward central East TN. And there are some rather large cumulus towers developing outside my window.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-23, 1:42 pm

Rather tightly wound upper level low over NC today.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-05-23, 5:23 pm

Models say the heat ridge will be very short lived with a clear signal of a dominant trof thanks to the neg NAO as far as the eye can see into the long range. This cool down should start to take place near the first of June if the models are correct


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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-23, 5:37 pm

That's music to my ears. After the last two summers set on broil, I'm looking forward to a lower electric bill.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-23, 7:19 pm

Just saw a double rainbow over towards Maryville. The top one is hard to see in these pics.



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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-23, 7:59 pm

I think those pine trees have seen better days, my friend. whistle Pine bark beetles?
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-23, 8:09 pm

After a sultry weekend dominated by strong HP, MRX states a more active time going into next week.


THE OTHER PLAYER IN THE WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE A TROPICAL LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE SHOWN THIS LOW DEEPENING AND APPROACHING THE GEORGIA COASTLINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS ALSO SUPPORTED THIS SOLUTION...BEFORE BACKING OFF IN ITS CURRENT RUN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WOULD BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS /PARTICULARLY ON A TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN A FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION/. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-05-23, 9:57 pm

WxFreak wrote:I think those pine trees have seen better days, my friend. whistle Pine bark beetles?

Yep, I had to cut down 4 last year and 3 back in '08. Will probably have to take down a couple more before winter. The beetles are rampant in my neighborhood unfortunately. On the plus side I'll have plenty of wood to taunt the weather gods with!

torch
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-05-23, 10:25 pm

Toot wrote:Models say the heat ridge will be very short lived with a clear signal of a dominant trof thanks to the neg NAO as far as the eye can see into the long range. This cool down should start to take place near the first of June if the models are correct


Awesome! Lets hope that -nao kicks in and kicks out the subtropical ridge

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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-24, 6:21 am

Stovepipe wrote:
WxFreak wrote:I think those pine trees have seen better days, my friend. whistle Pine bark beetles?

Yep, I had to cut down 4 last year and 3 back in '08. Will probably have to take down a couple more before winter. The beetles are rampant in my neighborhood unfortunately. On the plus side I'll have plenty of wood to taunt the weather gods with!

torch

Yeah, the south can have outbreaks of those nasty bugs. We had a MAJOR outbreak in southern Kentucky and parts of the Plateau back in the late 90s, and it lasted a few years. Back then, I lived in Whitley Co., Kentucky near the Daniel Boone National Forest, and there were thousand of acres of pines that died. The outbreak coincided with a drought, so the trees were weakened and had less water available to create their natural defense--pine tar.

Just a little sidebar there. yak
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

Post by WxFreak on 2012-05-24, 6:28 am

Dense fog advisory this morning. Enjoy the 84F today, because the 90's come in tomorrow, and will hang around all weekend long. The one saving grace may be the weak cap mentioned by MRX. It will allow for daily mountain thunderstorms to pop, and they've been known to drift down into the valley on occasion. If you live in the foothills, your chances are just a little better to see a rogue storm.
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Re: Spring 2012 weather discussion

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