Big storm system 16th-18th
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Big storm system 16th-18th
well the 18z gfs is holding on to a huge storm system around this time frame... its really catching my eyes... i dont start new topics unless its worthy... some other forums are already squaking about it on the net... a 996 mb low over southern missouri deepens to a 992 over the mid ohio valley.. un godly wind shear by the gfs... up in the upper midwest, they get hammered with a full blown blizzard. plenty of time to watch this sexy system... actually in behind the system, it paints some light snow here back in west tn.... this baby here will be talked about in the next week if things continue to hold... euro last 2 frames showing a negative titled trough also, so it looks to be swaying towards it.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
I've been watching it. Problem is, there are 2 threats (or three if you count tonight, but BL should be a problem) before it.
Ensembles have been on this one for 4-5 days now and the op has had something showing up for 2 days.
Its not a lock, but a good bet that there's a big snowstorm, and possibly severe outbreak (depending on the airmass in front of it) in this timeframe.
Ensembles have been on this one for 4-5 days now and the op has had something showing up for 2 days.
Its not a lock, but a good bet that there's a big snowstorm, and possibly severe outbreak (depending on the airmass in front of it) in this timeframe.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
Nasty looking storm on the 0z This one may have Memphis written all over it
Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
no doubt about it toot, it has really gotten my attention even more... i really like the look of the 0z gfs run tonight, the look of the trough looks more broader, compared to a more sharper one the 12z had today... that will aid for the development of super cell activity, and alow more room to get out and get some discrete stuff ahead of and mean line... yep memphis and midsouth area look to catch some good action from this system.Toot wrote:Nasty looking storm on the 0z This one may have Memphis written all over it
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
Don't know much about severe weather, Not much about any weather. . I just take my time. I noticed on the GFS during this time frame (this thread) that the SWEAT index is 350-400 in some of mid TN. What else can I look at to have an idea of what is possibly headed our way.. Anybody read the article from the NWS about the 2012 severe weather/tornado season for TN possibly as strong as or more than 2011. It was in The TENNESSEAN .
Vanster67- Admin
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Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
yes van, good point. i read that today myself... in fact , new release from the govt. today is predicting perhaps the worst tornado season on record... i never heard of such a bold statement.. back to the models. looks like parts of the midsouth is going to be in a potent triple point. look at that low bombing out over missouri van. thats scary dude, looks like most of west tn can and will get in the warm sector on that run,,, i have to break down more in depth stuff later. no doubt i will keep updating this event as it draws closer,,, this looks like it has a chance to get a high risk cat. somewhere out of this system. STAY TUNDEDVanster67 wrote:Don't know much about severe weather, Not much about any weather. . I just take my time. I noticed on the GFS during this time frame (this thread) that the SWEAT index is 350-400 in some of mid TN. What else can I look at to have an idea of what is possibly headed our way.. Anybody read the article from the NWS about the 2012 severe weather/tornado season for TN possibly as strong as or more than 2011. It was in The TENNESSEAN .
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
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Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
yes van, good point. i read that today myself... in fact , new release from the govt. today is predicting perhaps the worst tornado season on record... i never heard of such a bold statement.. back to the models. looks like parts of the midsouth is going to be in a potent triple point. look at that low bombing out over missouri van. thats scary dude, looks like most of west tn can and will get in the warm sector on that run,,, i have to break down more in depth stuff later. no doubt i will keep updating this event as it draws closer,,, this looks like it has a chance to get a high risk cat. somewhere out of this system. STAY TUNDEDVanster67 wrote:Don't know much about severe weather, Not much about any weather. . I just take my time. I noticed on the GFS during this time frame (this thread) that the SWEAT index is 350-400 in some of mid TN. What else can I look at to have an idea of what is possibly headed our way.. Anybody read the article from the NWS about the 2012 severe weather/tornado season for TN possibly as strong as or more than 2011. It was in The TENNESSEAN .
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-05
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Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
Vanster67 wrote:What else can I look at to have an idea of what is possibly headed our way..
Hey Vann
Severe weather systems are very complex and require several favorable conditions such as two opposite (Cold and warm) airmasses meeting along a cold front or a warm front, a strong low to mid level jetstream . Also there are specific mesoscale paramaters to look for ....such as wind shear, CAPE (convective available potential energy), and there's helicity, Lifted index...etc etc etc.
My personal favorite way to predict severe weather is looking for synoptic signs on wx models such as the GFS, EURO and some of these signals are storm shape and stormtrack is REALLY the most important signal for predicting severe outbreaks.
You get a strong OH valley runner and you will probably get severe in TN. BOOK IT!!
I hope that was helpful... and I suggest you study up on all these features if you want to learn some severe wx meteorology.
Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-08, 8:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
all great points toot, i was going to explain some other stuff, but the models got me so tore up i am studying this system now as i speak.Toot wrote:Vanster67 wrote:What else can I look at to have an idea of what is possibly headed our way..
Hey Vann
Severe weather systems are very complex and require several favorable conditions such as two opposite (Cold and warm) airmasses meeting along a cold front or a warm front. Also there are specific mesoscale paramaters to look for ....such as wind shear, CAPE (convective available potential energy), a strong low to mid level jetstream, and there's helicity...etc etc etc.
My personal favorite way to predict severe weather is looking for synoptic signs on wx models such as the GFS, EURO and some of these signals are storm shape and stormtrack is REALLY the most important signal for predicting severe outbreaks.
You get a strong OH valley runner and you will probably get severe in TN. BOOK IT!!
I hope that was helpful... and I suggest you study up on all these features if you want to learn some severe wx meteorology.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Big storm system 16th-18th
It sounds like this could be a hide yo wife hide yo kids situation. Thanks for keeping an eye on this guys.
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