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Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

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Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-09, 8:44 am

06z GFS looked way too warm to support snow with the monday/tue system (here in middleTN). 850's were well above freezing and ground temps were upper 30's. I don't know what the Euro was smoking last night. I'd almost bet the farm we don't see any snow out of that system on Monday/Tues (again, in MiddleTN).

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Feb 13th/14th Snow Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 9:15 am

snowdog wrote:06z GFS looked way too warm to support snow with the monday/tue system (here in middleTN). 850's were well above freezing and ground temps were upper 30's. I don't know what the Euro was smoking last night. I'd almost bet the farm we don't see any snow out of that system on Monday/Tues (again, in MiddleTN).

Its not smoking anything. Look at the ensembles.. they are showing it fine.

There will, repeat, will be dramatic evaporational cooling with this system Monday night. If 850s get above freezing (the euro keeps them below the entire time) at the onset of precipitation, they will drop dramatically.

Go check the ensemble members on raleighwx. You can see how as the precip approaches, 850s drop down in front of the qpf areas (because the precip shield is located in front of the areas where precip has all ready fallen) Evaporational cooling. Promise.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-09, 10:00 am

Disclaimer: this is too far out to make concrete judgements on surface temps so this is all hypothetical and what the model is currently showing. It shouldn't be taken as "this will definitely happen".

Here is the 06z GFS sounding at 120hr (the 00z GFS was much the same but a tad warmer). You can see the virga taking place and almost wet-bulbing down to freezing at the surface...but the upper levels (800/775mb and down) are too warm. We may have to be down to or below freezing at the surface to get snow and even then it may be an icy/graupel mix.


Next is hour 126. You can see the column is fully saturated and both the surface and upper level is well above freezing.


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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 10:22 am

From HPC

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
735 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 12Z MON FEB 13 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2012

STRONG JET STREAM WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. THIS FAVORS SPLIT-FLOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DISTINCT NRN AND SRN STREAM...A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THRU D+8 INDICATES AN
EAST BASED NEG NAO WITH STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTHEAST OF
GREEENLAND WITH A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE THIS SLOWLY WEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING LOWER HTS AND COLDER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES. SUPPORT IS ALSO HERE WITH A WEAKER PHASE 8
MJO THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
DEEP ERN TROF THIS COMING WEEKEND. LONGER TERM MJO FORECASTS OF A
SHIFT INTO PHASE 1 ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW AVG WRN CONUS HTS
AND NEAR AVG OVER THE ERN THIRD OD CONUS. THIS TREND IS SEEN IN
THE MODEL DAILIES AND THE CPC D+8 HT ANOMALIES.


PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG PACIFIC JET...WHICH ARE VERY
DIFFICULT TO INITIALIZE...COMBINED WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY...SUPPORT AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE AT BEST DAYS 3-5 BEFORE FALLING BELOW AVERAGE FOR DAYS
6/7. DAY-TO-DAY MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 2 FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING
THE PACIFIC DAYS 3/4...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET OFFERING THE BEST
COMBINATION OF DETAIL WHILE ADDRESSING THE ANTICIPATED SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES. THUS...THE GFS WAS NOT USED IN DEVELOPING THE
PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS.
BEGINNING WITH DAY
5/TUE...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET BECOME APPRECIABLY
LARGER.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3-4 SUN/MON AND
00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 5-7
TUES/THURS.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 12:14 pm

smartass

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 2:03 pm

Guys the 12z euro is showing 4 to 5 inches across TN for this storm.

sneaky

Text output posted for all of TN in the lounge.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 2:28 pm






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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 2:49 pm

Kevin is stating that the wunderground maps may be overdoing things, especially south of a Jackson, TN to Columbia, TN line. He's probably right based on what I'm seeing from 850s, it looks like there will be a rain/snow mix for those south of the line unless this verifies a bit colder.

But north of 40 from dyersburg to Nashville looks like jackpot land. I sure hope we don't get screwed on this one.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 2:52 pm

jmundie wrote:Kevin is stating that the wunderground maps may be overdoing things, especially south of a Jackson, TN to Columbia, TN line. He's probably right based on what I'm seeing from 850s, it looks like there will be a rain/snow mix for those south of the line unless this verifies a bit colder.

But north of 40 from dyersburg to Nashville looks like jackpot land. I sure hope we don't get screwed on this one.

Red tag at American says snow down to Atlanta due to evap cooling and time of day.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 3:06 pm

Yeah - Cheeznado is pretty pumped about this set up. And he's been the king of Euro = "meh" posts this year.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Guest on 2012-02-09, 3:10 pm

I see a 1-2 inch snow being possible. Nothing more than that though. Temps look too borderline to venture into even almost calling it 2-4, 3-5 inches for that timeframe right now. Too close to call to be honest.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-09, 3:21 pm

Foothills seems to have my concerns with this storm...

We'll have to see if the euro model keeps the system far south and not turn it into a warm advection scheme. The high isn't ideally placed even though 850's may show it cold enough for Tenn. to NC where the bulk of the moisture axis is snow aloft, but southerly winds won't be good to keep it snow. Unless the rates are strong and the column can wetbulb. Remember we had a couple events over the last couple years , esp. 2 years ago where aloft it was -3 or -4 here and it rained with spotty sleet. Southwest winds certainly won't be good in lower elevations.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 3:40 pm

snowdog wrote:Foothills seems to have my concerns with this storm...

We'll have to see if the euro model keeps the system far south and not turn it into a warm advection scheme. The high isn't ideally placed even though 850's may show it cold enough for Tenn. to NC where the bulk of the moisture axis is snow aloft, but southerly winds won't be good to keep it snow. Unless the rates are strong and the column can wetbulb. Remember we had a couple events over the last couple years , esp. 2 years ago where aloft it was -3 or -4 here and it rained with spotty sleet. Southwest winds certainly won't be good in lower elevations.

This will happen. Even if its heavy snow changing to rain. North of 40 looks fine at this point. S of 40 may start mixing, though at this point, I don't think it will go over to all rain. Especially if the low pressure shifts from texas to the gulf. If the main low stays over the conus, its possible. Night time helps though.

Now - for north ga, sc, nc, waa is a serious concern.

But the euro has another cold shot coming in front behind this

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Reb on 2012-02-09, 3:50 pm

the specifics like whether it will be all rain/mix/or all snow, especially specific locations..are completely irrelevant right now IMO. way too far out for that. this does look like a legitimate threat though.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 3:55 pm

Reb comes out of hiding!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Reb on 2012-02-09, 4:03 pm

afro

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-09, 4:18 pm

If anything, I hope it goes to a sleet/snow mix here that way we don't get any melting. This looks good guys.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 6:20 pm

Heavy snow to rain on 18z? Whatta you guys think?
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Guest on 2012-02-09, 6:31 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Heavy snow to rain on 18z? Whatta you guys think?

Bleh, get 5 inches of snow then it all melts away with the rain

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 7:01 pm

Being that this threat is already marginal due to surface low pressure placement...ANY nw trend will kill any snow chance...and I will be very surprised if this dont trend NW.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-09, 7:08 pm

Reb wrote: afro
hey, i found reb. lol!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-02-09, 7:13 pm

jmundie wrote:Kevin is stating that the wunderground maps may be overdoing things, especially south of a Jackson, TN to Columbia, TN line. He's probably right based on what I'm seeing from 850s, it looks like there will be a rain/snow mix for those south of the line unless this verifies a bit colder.

But north of 40 from dyersburg to Nashville looks like jackpot land. I sure hope we don't get screwed on this one.

I hope everyone gets snow but I love being in jackpot land. rock on We had some good snows last year but Dyersburg got screwed a couple of times with storms sliding to the south.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 7:30 pm

Toot wrote:Being that this threat is already marginal due to surface low pressure placement...ANY nw trend will kill any snow chance...and I will be very surprised if this dont trend NW.

You're right in that this thing needs to stay south... but the trend is moving southward versus north. Depending on if and how much the pv retrogrades, we may not have an issue with temps at all.

Not to mention the laser lock that the euro has had on this thing. 18z ensemble mean shows all snow for those north of 40. GFS is starting to close in on 72 hours, which is where it really starts getting a clue what's going to happen... just like with the current storm.

I would never say "book it" but I like where we're sitting at this point.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Guest on 2012-02-09, 7:31 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:Being that this threat is already marginal due to surface low pressure placement...ANY nw trend will kill any snow chance...and I will be very surprised if this dont trend NW.

You're right in that this thing needs to stay south... but the trend is moving southward versus north. Depending on if and how much the pv retrogrades, we may not have an issue with temps at all.

Not to mention the laser lock that the euro has had on this thing. 18z ensemble mean shows all snow for those north of 40. GFS is starting to close in on 72 hours, which is where it really starts getting a clue what's going to happen... just like with the current storm.

I would never say "book it" but I like where we're sitting at this point.

You know we're onto something when J starts getting onboard for a system.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 7:38 pm

Meh...EVERY storm that I have had interest in this year has trended north this winter... including the current system for this weekend. And yes the NAO region will have a weak block at this time. I dont think it will be enough to keep that surface low far enough south.



Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-09, 7:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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