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Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-09, 7:40 pm

Jmundie sure is right that the system trended south hopefull it will trend south a tad more and keep me a little colder.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-09, 7:52 pm

I hope it trends south but it would certainly be a first that didnt end up trending north this year.

I really cant see it getting any further south than it is at this point. Where its at now would probably make for fun times.. but models will change when the current system gets off the local grid. Im pretty sure that models are not handling the current upper level energies correctly and that will end up affecting this system.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 8:12 pm

Toot wrote:I hope it trends south but it would certainly be a first that didnt end up trending north this year.

I really cant see it getting any further south than it is at this point. Where its at now would probably make for fun times.. but models will change when the current system gets off the local grid. Im pretty sure that models are not handling the current upper level energies correctly and that will end up affecting this system.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 8:21 pm

Congrats Dwag!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 10:47 pm



Bruce is doing a chat room play by play, come join us.
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-09, 11:15 pm

Stovepipe wrote:

Bruce is doing a chat room play by play, come join us.
lmao lol!

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-09, 11:23 pm

just look like the 850 s r just a little warm out to 105 hours on the gfs.. close

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-09, 11:30 pm

Close enough to keep me interested, that's for sure.

popcorn
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-09, 11:34 pm

As long as the euro stays on board I'm still interested.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-10, 1:00 am

I would love to see this come to pass, MRX, as is their standard in any kind of forecast discussion past 48 hours pretty much uses a paragraph to cover several days. They give the standard statement, "could be snow Monday night into Tuesday morning, best chance in the higher elevations". Have me with a low of 31 Monday night with slight chance of rain.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 1:16 am

0z CMC holds up with the signifigant snow threat....the way this is being modeled it could be snow to sleet to Frz Rain to rain. If it dont trend north some areas could pick up very hefty amounts. Of course this is still a decent ways out...but im starting to come around. It looks like blocking is causing a further south stormtrack than what we have been seeing.

Hopefully this holds and this sucker gets wound up

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-10, 2:08 am

Not to sound like an idiot here, I know that it is a model, but the latest run of the GFS has the 540 line into southern Kentucky right now, where as I am sitting well below freezing at 25.5 degrees. Is there a reason for this? Just wondering. Can't wait for the Euro. rock on Helps to work 3rd shift, I'm always up for it. popcorn Very Happy
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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-10, 4:25 am

It's odd, reading the AFD this morning from Jackson and they seem to insist that the models are showing this as actually being very light to no precip at all for their FA, but even the 00z Euro appeared to show several inches across SE KY, which is a good portion of their CWA.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-02-10, 5:56 am

Stovepipe wrote:Congrats Dwag!



Stove, a few local mets are talking about a possible mix h



ere but saying it just needs to be monitored. Hell when I looked at the InAccuweather extended forecast last night they had us in the 60's for temps even though everything is pointing to some sort of cold before the temps rise.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-10, 6:55 am

OHX going snow likely Monday night in the grids. 60% chance.

I think the further east you are, the harder its going to be to see snow/winter precip. Kinda think valley locations could be dealing with freezing rain after a brief burst of snow due to a bit of damming and waa blowing over top of you.

GFS ensembles laying down decent accums for most of tennessee now... one member had 8 inch band from nashville to crossville. Another had it down near chat and n ga

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-10, 6:57 am

jmundie wrote:OHX going snow likely Monday night in the grids. 60% chance.

I think the further east you are, the harder its going to be to see snow/winter precip. Kinda think valley locations could be dealing with freezing rain after a brief burst of snow due to a bit of damming and waa blowing over top of you.

GFS ensembles laying down decent accums for most of tennessee now... one member had 8 inch band from nashville to crossville. Another had it down near chat and n ga
So Mundie did the GFS keep it all snow for I-40 north, I do not have much experience with these types of storms since they do not happen often.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-10, 9:12 am

Some of the ensemble members keep it all snow. Taken literally, the GFS is rain to slush. I don't think its taking into account the blocking correctly. It should do so once we're within 72 hours of the event.

As for now - Euro is king. 3-6 day range, it really doesn't miss.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 9:32 am

0z Euro turned out better than I had feared. Text output in the lounge.









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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-10, 12:03 pm

12z GFS before the rain washes it away:

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-10, 5:09 pm

Vanster67 wrote:Not to sound like an idiot here, I know that it is a model, but the latest run of the GFS has the 540 line into southern Kentucky right now, where as I am sitting well below freezing at 25.5 degrees. Is there a reason for this? Just wondering.

That would probably be due to warm air advection near the mid levels in the atmosphere Vann. The temperature in the mid levels increases and results in critical thickness of 1000 to 500mb increasing. So you would have warm air up above but a cold airmass at the surface and hence the thickness value of more than 540.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-11, 10:41 am

MRX

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY
EVENING WITH DRY AIR MASS AND DIURNAL COOLING. LATER ATMOSPHERE
SLOWLY MOISTEN UPS AND TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY WITH SKIES CLOUDY.
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF SOUTHERN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT THAT
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAY HAVE
WARM AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING
AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL RAIN. WILL HAVE SNOW AND RAIN
MIXTURE IN FORECAST FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD A WINTERY MIX IN
LATER UPDATES. SNOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY ABOUT
18Z BUT SOME AREAS MAY HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS LINGER MOSTLY RAIN BUT SNOW
POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A NEW
DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE MS VALLEY SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER AND BRING MOSTLY RAIN.
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

Looking more and more like Freezing rain threat for the east TN valley as a little CAD develops in sheltered valley locales


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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-11, 11:15 am

Toot wrote:MRX

Looking more and more like Freezing rain threat for the east TN valley as a little CAD develops in sheltered valley locales


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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-11, 11:22 am

lolz...I love that one lmao

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-11, 12:10 pm

I hope it stays winter precip the whole time In middle tennessee.

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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

Post by Toot on 2012-02-11, 12:52 pm

12zCMC








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Re: Feb 13th/14th 2012 Snow/ice Threat

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