*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

This is about a week out but the euro has been on it and now the gfs ensembles are picking it up. It seems as if the stormtrack has finally made it to favorable position and Febuary looks to be the most wintry month of this warm and sucky winter. Hopefully one of these threats make up for it





From HPC

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENS RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE KEEPING A POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTH OF GREENLAND LATE
PERIOD. COMPOSITE ANALOG RUNS OF ALL OF THESE CENTER THIS ANOMALY
FARTHER WEST AS A WEST BASED NEG NAO OVER DAVIS STRAIT OR
LABRADOR. IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM TRACK WOULD BE FORCED FARTHER
SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE ONE MID PERIOD AND ANY POSSIBLE EJECTION
OF ENERGY LATE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS
IDEA HAS POPPED UP RECENTLY BY SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS
INCLUDING ECMWF/CMC AND JMA AT VARIOUS TIMES. LONGER TERM D+11S
SHIFT THIS ANOMALY EASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE. BEST BET FOR NOW TO
FOLLOW AN INCREASED BLEND OF ENSEMBLES UNTIL GUIDANCE SETTLES DOWN.

Yeah, this guy has been showing up for quite a while. Ensembles have several big wound up gulf lows in the mid to long range. Climb says a low like that would have snow, and at least modified arctic air.

I'm having trouble believing the models that the -nao in the near term completely breaks down. If it doesn't, the next couple weeks could be spectacular.

You've seen the latest dgex haven't you toot? To say east tenn and nc do well would be an understatement.

jmundie wrote:You've seen the latest dgex haven't you toot? To say east tenn and nc do well would be an understatement.

I have now...thanks for bringing it to my attention

lol

Hawt! Been awhile since I've seen some good DGEX snow porn.

The GFS has this one suppressed but the ensembles and the cmc are still showing a snow threat this morning

Day 8 temp departures from normal

this threat is startiing to look really interersting after last nights models runs, and surely after this mornings 6zgfs... nice trend.

Ensembles are on it too - pattern looks good going forward.

Superensembles, which were the first to latch on to cold in europe, have a cold anamoly from the northern plains down into the southeast, with a west based -nao and a pna ridge.

I'm seeing at least 3 periods of interest in the next 2 weeks. Should be fun. And imagine it will be colder than op models are currently indicating, especially if we get a greenland block that far west, even with a neutral to negative pna, we should still get enough cold and suppression to have a chance.

jmundie wrote:Ensembles are on it too - pattern looks good going forward.

Superensembles, which were the first to latch on to cold in europe, have a cold anamoly from the northern plains down into the southeast, with a west based -nao and a pna ridge.

I'm seeing at least 3 periods of interest in the next 2 weeks. Should be fun. And imagine it will be colder than op models are currently indicating, especially if we get a greenland block that far west, even with a neutral to negative pna, we should still get enough cold and suppression to have a chance.

yep agree with you 100 percent mundie, time fram around the 24th has my interest also... big system advertised... course its showing lakes cutter as of now... but any blocking sets up... look out

Glad to see you guys encouraged. It's funny how different people see different things from the same data. American has been all "long range meh, winter cancel" as of late. Perhaps the mid south is looking better than the foothills of N.C. or everyone over there is just jaded.

Stovepipe wrote:Glad to see you guys encouraged. It's funny how different people see different things from the same data. American has been all "long range meh, winter cancel" as of late. Perhaps the mid south is looking better than the foothills of N.C. or everyone over there is just jaded.

personally thats why i dropped my account over there couple years ago... to many chessy posters over there, some r really good at what they do... i learned alot over there on long range patterns... just not a fan of being a memeber over there. any more

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Stovepipe wrote:Glad to see you guys encouraged. It's funny how different people see different things from the same data. American has been all "long range meh, winter cancel" as of late. Perhaps the mid south is looking better than the foothills of N.C. or everyone over there is just jaded.

personally thats why i dropped my account over there couple years ago... to many chessy posters over there, some r really good at what they do... i learned alot over there on long range patterns... just not a fan of being a memeber over there. any more

There are a small handful of knowledgeable and interesting posters over there that I like to check in on. But sifting through the weenies and N.C. focused mess is getting to be too much of a chore. And now that Robert is gone it's hardly worth it.

stove, got a question bro... psu site is loading slow on my computer for some reason...you seen the 12z euro on this storm system yet, hear folks are goingape shit over it man

The mountains got slammed on this run. Its a little to far east for us... but I like where we're sitting at this juncture. Cold air looks to be a factor thouogh -unless models are missing an arctic high somewhere.

To bad im at work or i would post the fred sanford heart attack gif...lol

I let my AccuPro expire. If this looks to be a serious threat I'll have to resub lol.

12zEuro Miller A....Yes its real and its spectacular

Goodness gracious look at those gfs ensembles

Looking at the rest of the models..I have determined that this has very good support for its range. The 12zNogaps...18zGFS ensemble mean...12zCMC...12zEuro... 18zDGEX all are snowing on TN in some shape or fashion with a miller A type storm. Hard not to get excited at such good support for a storm 5-7 days out.

Toot wrote:Goodness gracious look at those gfs ensembles

yes toot, those are quite sexv graphs there, no doubt... just like to see a nice big high pressure up north to insurance with some colder air to work with... but not bad there at all

It looks to my eye that dynamic cooling could be a part of this system. We can only hope - because need as much help as we can get.

I just want a good 2 inches of snow thats all I ask for.

0zGFS just came on board and joined EVERY other model that I can think of for a snow threat during this period.