Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-14, 11:54 pm

Stovepipe wrote:The only way to settle this is to bust out some maps.

sure toot will, i mean thats why we havent got any sustainedl length of cold stove... i mean l love snow just as much as anybody on this board this is a typical la nina this year, versus last year were we had some nice blocking mainly in the month of january last year. then we lost it for good in mid february

by **Toot** 2012-02-14, 11:55 pm

Bruce...do you just look at model forecasts or do you actually look at observational data...Because it didnt get out of the 30's all day here.

And here is a CURRENT 500mb graphic

See greenland? See that damn block over top of it? You see that 50/50 low?

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 5 T0

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 5 T0

CPC also says the NAO is negative..if you're the type that has to have it in graph form

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 5 Nao.sprd2

There are no rules that says a sustained NAO block has to be in place ALL winter to get a decent storm. The pattern is currently favorable hence the models snowing on eastern TN. Can you provide some support for your claims that the NAO is not negative and there is no block in place because in sure in the hell looks negative to me

by **jmundie** 2012-02-14, 11:56 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Don't look now, but apparently the Canadian is sexy.

Yeah big huge sexiness

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 12:00 am

Toot wrote:Bruce...do you just look at model forecasts or do you actually look at observational data...Because it didnt get out of the 30's all day here.

And here is a CURRENT 500mb graphic

See greenland? See that damn block over top of it? You see that 50/50 low?

CPC also says the NAO is negative..if you're the type that has to have it in graph form

There are no rules that says a sustained NAO block has to be in place ALL winter to get a decent storm. The pattern is currently favorable hence the models snowing on eastern TN. Can you provide some support for your claims that the NAO is not negative and there is no block in place because in sure in the hell looks negative to me

yes i do look the whole thing toot... i got up to 45 today, and tomorrow low 60s with some t. storms

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-15, 12:01 am

jmundie wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:Don't look now, but apparently the Canadian is sexy.

Yeah big huge sexiness

Frank Straight is going to choke on a cough drop.

wow

by **Reb** 2012-02-15, 12:02 am

MAPS I NEED CMC MAPS!!

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 12:07 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:yes i do look the whole thing toot... i got up to 45 today, and tomorrow low 60s with some t. storms

Well dont get a suntan in that 45 degree weather or anything Very Happy

So are you still saying that there is not a Greenland block in place and the NAO is not negative?

by **John1122** 2012-02-15, 12:07 am

We will have many ups and downs if you follow each run in verbatim fashion like this.

Hell, 12-18 hours ago it was heading for central Florida. Right now I am hoping for a LP tracking the Gulf, some form of blocking and a HP somewhere between Minnesota and Michigan.

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 12:10 am

Reb wrote:MAPS I NEED CMC MAPS!!

This is all you get until the good ones come out....notice the favorable thickness.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 5 136_100

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 12:11 am

well, the doc is next... i am off tomorrow on a vacation day i am taking. i may stay up for him. popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 12:12 am

You gonna answer my question bruce?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 12:13 am

Toot wrote:
Reb wrote:MAPS I NEED CMC MAPS!!

This is all you get until the good ones come out....notice the favorable thickness.

no doubt, 850 s colder on the cmc

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 12:15 am

John1122 wrote:We will have many ups and downs if you follow each run in verbatim fashion like this.

Hell, 12-18 hours ago it was heading for central Florida. Right now I am hoping for a LP tracking the Gulf, some form of blocking and a HP somewhere between Minnesota and Michigan.

I support this post popcorn

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 12:17 am

toot, in all fairness, it may be neutral... lets see what happens from here... thats all from me tonight my good ole friend... nothing like a damn good ole fashion debate before i go to bed. smartass

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 12:20 am

lol Its not deeply negative... but its clearly negative on the index and there is clearly a greenland block in place right now. To say otherwise is operator error or bad meteorology. One of the two

by **jmundie** 2012-02-15, 8:41 am

Lots of model disagreement on this one. Ensembles all over the place too.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 8:54 am

the 6zgfs this morning is providing us some snow porn at hours 288 to 300... 288 more for west tn. 300 east tn. popcorn

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-15, 10:12 am

Sweet Jesus look at what the NAM is doing in Texas.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 5 3XxcO

by **Stovepipe** 2012-02-15, 10:13 am

Allan Huffman:

SOme things to note from the NAM.

1. The NAM is closest to the Canadian through 72-84 hours when compared with the GFS/ECMWF.

2. It is slower and more amplified with the southern stream system. At 84 hours it has a 1003mb low over SW Louisiana. The 6z GFS at 90 hours had it over south-central GEorgia, the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours had it near Mobile Bay, the 00z GGEM at 96 hours had it slightly further east than the NAM just south of the LA central coast. From the 6z GFS ENsemble members, it looked most like members p002, p005, p008, and p 010. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf090.html

3. Also the NAM is much quicker with the northern stream cold front when compared with the GFS and ECMWF at the same time. The front is passing through central Virginia at 00z Sunday and pushing southeast. The area of low pressure will likely ride this front so to speak.

If you extract out the 6z GFS Ensemble members and look at the Canadian, one would expect the 12z NAM would likely end up threatening at least, KY/TN/VA/northern NC with snow.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z models trend slower/stronger with the southern stream system, and quicker with the cold front moving into the NOrtheast this saturday.

by **jmundie** 2012-02-15, 10:16 am

Stovepipe wrote:Sweet Jesus look at what the NAM is doing in Texas.

Yep. If the NAM is correct, then you would likely have a band of very heavy, dynamically driven snow from dallas to little rock to memphis nashville and up I81. The east side of the mountains in NC would struggle if this were the solution.

I'm certainly rooting for it though. Bad thing about this storm as well, there will be a tight gradient on the south side from heavy accums to nothing, because we don't have true cold air in place.

still - models have been everywhere with this system. who knows if this is anywhere close to the solution.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-02-15, 11:12 am

yeah, the 12z nam crushes dallas with a foot of snow... WOW

by **secleveland** 2012-02-15, 11:40 am

I have plans of going to Dayton Ohio friday and come back sunday night. By looking at the models it comes sunday but some are talking like it dose not hit till Monday? Should i plan to come back sooner or stay there to make sure i see snow lol

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 11:42 am

Nam is hinting at a powerhouse type cyclone with what the low is doing to the airmass to the north of it....classic setup for someone to get pummled. Now if the rest of guidance will follow suit

by **Toot** 2012-02-15, 11:58 am

Gfs seems colder also but im on my phone and cant dig as deep as i would like to

by **jmundie** 2012-02-15, 12:09 pm

GFS is, per twisterdata maps, 1-2 inches for middle and east tennessee north of 40.

If there's any additional dynamic cooling that the model is missing, it would obviously be more.

Canadian is suppressing the system now. So, on to the euro. I like where I'm sitting at this juncture. If you're east of the mountains though its price is right music time.