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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-15, 12:11 pm

12z GFS



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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-15, 12:16 pm

12z GFS Ensemble Mean:



popcorn
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-15, 1:40 pm

Allan Huffman on the 12z runs:

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/an-update-on-the-possibilities-of-snow-this-weekend-the-southeast

...

My Thinking:

This is still subject to change but I think the Nam/Canadian models are likely too slow but the GFS is likely too fast with the evolution of things. Our in-house high resolution 4km model is very close to the ECMWF at 72 hours with a 1004mb surface low just south of the TX/La border and the key cold front across Indiana/Illinois, not as quick as the 12z NAM. So right now, I go with the ECMWF. Which for many of us may bring a flake or two Sunday afternoon and night but likely not enough to cause problems.

However, we are just now starting to get our players over land where they will be sampled by aircraft and balloons so model swings are still likely. But the consistency of the ECMWF gives it credence and it’s scenario make sense given the setup.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-15, 5:30 pm

You east tennessee folks are gonna be cliff diving at the 18z gfs.

I just want a little dynamic cooling, and I wouldbe in the jackpot.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 5:32 pm

18z GFS

hr 84


hr90


hr96


Thats a big dog storm...looks like it goes sub 990mb with extreme fetch down into the SE at hr 96. Its pretty good for most of the state but I would like to see it a little further south and east. The big thing that I have noticed is models are trending colder just like I thought they would....Somebody is gonna get it wow

18z NAM is sexy too




Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-15, 5:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-15, 5:33 pm

not cliff diving but we are no longer in the sweet spot. not too worried

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-15, 5:40 pm

ever so close for us here in west tn... only if it were a little colder.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 5:44 pm

Alot of TN is nearly 10 degrees below normal on the 19th..yeah I will take that cold



This very well could be a I-40 special but I think you will continue to see these colder trends the next couple of days



I bet there is alot of cliff diving going on in The SE regional forum of American wx lmao

18zgfs


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 6:31 pm

HPC is going with the euro ensembles and let me tell you they are big in east TN. Maybe stove will post them in the members only section here in a while.




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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by connerconner on 2012-02-15, 6:34 pm

OH GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by connerconner on 2012-02-15, 6:36 pm

I need some meds, I don't think I can take this popcorn

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 6:44 pm

connerconner wrote:I need some meds, I don't think I can take this popcorn

lol...you and me both. They are sexy as hell...1000-500mb thickness is favorable...850's are favorable but surface temps are marginal while there is massive amounts of qpf in east TN and I would think alot of it would be snow. I will take it all day long. The euro ensemble control is further south and a little colder than the gfs.

I wanna cash it in now where do I do this? hurry


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by connerconner on 2012-02-15, 6:48 pm

as long as the mountains get a good dumping.. I plan on taking sat/sun/mon just exploring the TN/NC mountains, hopefully cash in on a pow day at Ober if we get lucky.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by snowman72 on 2012-02-15, 6:52 pm

All I want to see is some big fat snowflake fall once again, right now I don't even care if it sticks drool

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-15, 7:02 pm

snowman72 wrote:All I want to see is some big fat snowflake fall once again, right now I don't even care if it sticks drool

my exact thoughts, snowman...my exact thoughts.

ohhh memories stoned

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 7:05 pm

18zGFS ensembles are a hair further north like the gfs but they are still pretty sexy.



The euro ensembles are further south....Classic model battle unfolding right now....Euro Vs GFS evl

This is a much stronger storm than it was yesterday at this time...still gonna be some changes in the next couple of days...What a ride bounce

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 7:17 pm

Like many and including myself...Larry Cosgrove has had his fare share busts this year but the man knows how to write. I love reading his writeups

Since there has been much hoopla (not to mention generally bad information floating around on forums, so noted by Craig Allen and David Tolleris in their discussions on the subject) about a big storm on the East Coast this weekend, I decided to post what I think will be helpful directions about the potential for snow, rain, or nothing along the Interstate 95 corridor between Saturday night and Monday morning.

First of all, I am a firm believer that a major storm WILL hit most of Texas, the Deep South, lower and middle Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. But do NOT be fooled into thinking this is an ALL SNOW event. Rather, the deep subtropical moisture fetch that will boost the incoming disturbance (over the Four Corners now) will imply a FURTHER NORTH and MORE INTENSE path than what many of the computer models are showing now. The much-maligned standard GFS is probably too far north and west, but its ensemble members as well as the UKMET and European variants are probably close to the truth. I am saying Galveston TX....Macon GA....Norfolk VA....200 mi SE Nantucket MA in a Friday to Monday morning time frame.

Negative tilt systems with well-defined warm/moist advection mechanisms almost always reach 990MB intensity or lower. Because of so much warm advection and no "holding anticyclone" in QC, I suspect that anyone living below Providence RI to Port Jervis NY is going to see a majority rain changeover. But a shift back to snow is entirely possible as far south as the Virginia suburbs of Washington DC as the low gets cranking. If you want a big snow situation, maybe sections of E KY....WV....W VA and W MD might be primed. Operative word is MIGHT....for the rest, a windy, raw ugly storm with -mainly- rain. And I think SE TX gets a good dunking Friday night and Saturday morning.


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-15, 7:33 pm

I can't tell if he's saying there will be snow in Texas and the south. "big storm" could mean anything.

Like a good forecaster he says a lot but tells you little. Other than his storm track and prediction of at least 990 mb, we don't learn much from his write up.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 7:53 pm

990Mb is a pretty stout for an extratropical storm in the eastern US... and I would think it would have plenty of cold advected wrap around precip into middle and east TN.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Tom on 2012-02-15, 8:03 pm

990 is a beast storm. If we get cold air and the track he is talking about, then boom goes the dynamite imo

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-15, 8:16 pm

We need this low to bring down some more cold air.
EDIT: That is really the only concern I have, the storm has trended northwest but we need some cold air to bring down.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-15, 8:36 pm

Adam the storm hasn't trended north...the gfs has trended north but the euro and cmc are well south of it. So..the gfs is probably too far north...Just sayin

Here is what HPC is taking from all guidance...notice the low is further south than the gfs


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Math/Met on 2012-02-15, 8:42 pm

Toot wrote:990Mb is a pretty stout for an extratropical storm in the eastern US... and I would think it would have plenty of cold advected wrap around precip into middle and east TN.

Assuming he is correct about the 990mb low, then I think you are correct. A system that strong would have potential for strong cold air advection on the back side of it. Plus, a 990mb low in February is going to be pretty efficient at producing its own cold air. The drop in pressure and strong vertical motion within the system would result in dynamic cooling, so someone would likely be cold enough for snow. If that is the case, then it would just be a matter of the track. Again, this whole discussion is assuming he is correct about the low becoming that strong.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-02-15, 8:45 pm

Every single storm has trended north, the NAM has also trended north. I don't think at all that this storm will stay south. It may but that is just my opinion. I guess I am making a forecast here lol.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-15, 9:34 pm

Toot wrote:Adam the storm hasn't trended north...the gfs has trended north but the euro and cmc are well south of it. So..the gfs is probably too far north...Just sayin

Here is what HPC is taking from all guidance...notice the low is further south than the gfs


Just about everything about that HPC map screams big snow for MiddleTN. High in Iowa, check...perfect low track, check. Just need a little more cold air and a tad stronger low. We are really close to getting something good.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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