Tennessee Weather Spot
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.
WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
Stovepipe (4148)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
Adam2014 (1424)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
tennessee storm09 (1304)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
Jed33 (930)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
windstorm (891)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
John1122 (885)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
snowdog (855)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
Homemommy (824)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 
WxFreak (812)
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_lcap*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Voting_bar*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Vote_rcap 


*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

+19
Grandpa Nasty
Homemommy
ballpark
skillsweather
snowdog
Math/Met
Tom
secleveland
snowman72
Dyersburg Weather
connerconner
Vanster67
John1122
Reb
Adam2014
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
jmundie
Toot
23 posters

Page 7 of 39 Previous  1 ... 6, 7, 8 ... 23 ... 39  Next

Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot 2012-02-15, 9:49 pm

Math/Met wrote:
Assuming he is correct about the 990mb low, then I think you are correct. A system that strong would have potential for strong cold air advection on the back side of it. Plus, a 990mb low in February is going to be pretty efficient at producing its own cold air. The drop in pressure and strong vertical motion within the system would result in dynamic cooling, so someone would likely be cold enough for snow. If that is the case, then it would just be a matter of the track. Again, this whole discussion is assuming he is correct about the low becoming that strong.

Hey M/M do you think that models are correct with the surface temps?...They seem a little warm when compared to other aspects of the thermal profile.



Adam2014 wrote:Every single storm has trended north, the NAM has also trended north. I don't think at all that this storm will stay south. It may but that is just my opinion. I guess I am making a forecast here lol.

Adam go back to the first post of this thread and read the HPC discussion...the GFS is likely too far north.



snowdog wrote:

Just about everything about that HPC map screams big snow for MiddleTN. High in Iowa, check...perfect low track, check. Just need a little more cold air and a tad stronger low. We are really close to getting something good.

Yessir..I like the look of things also...just too many good signals to not pay this some attention. popcorn


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-15, 9:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
Toot
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Adam2014 2012-02-15, 9:52 pm

Like I said it is just my opinion, I am not saying it will happen. But I think the storm will be farther north. The 0z NAM is farther north also. Just an opinion not saying it will happen.
EDIT: Dang the NAM is really farther north, I hope there isn't that much trend there.
Adam2014
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb 2012-02-15, 9:58 pm

lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
Reb
Reb
Admin

Posts : 745
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Maryville, TN

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-15, 9:59 pm

still the 0z nam not that bad... close to a big event for west tn. on last 2 frames... sure the rest of state will do good if run went further,,, course nam only goes 84

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Adam2014 2012-02-15, 10:00 pm

Reb wrote:lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
The warmth is definately my only concern at this point.
Adam2014
Adam2014
Founding Member

Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 27
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-15, 10:01 pm

Reb wrote:lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
yep reb, no doubt temps could be issue... like to see a stronger high north. and stronger low, that would help. with dynamic cooling

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie 2012-02-15, 10:12 pm

The NAM is a bit further north... and it now appears that this is going to be a miller b, energy transferring from around atlanta to the atlantic coast near norfolk.

Serious dynamic cooling showing up on the NAM. And its likely underdoing it. Still only 1004 on the NAM. If the low pressure is any stronger, it will only increase the dynamic cooling.


jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-15, 10:13 pm

looking at 0z nam, it looks like on that run a rain to snow just about along the 1 40 corridor... could even be some 1 to 3 inch wet snow accumulations fwiw.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-15, 11:04 pm

Math/Met wrote:
Toot wrote:990Mb is a pretty stout for an extratropical storm in the eastern US... and I would think it would have plenty of cold advected wrap around precip into middle and east TN.

Assuming he is correct about the 990mb low, then I think you are correct. A system that strong would have potential for strong cold air advection on the back side of it. Plus, a 990mb low in February is going to be pretty efficient at producing its own cold air. The drop in pressure and strong vertical motion within the system would result in dynamic cooling, so someone would likely be cold enough for snow. If that is the case, then it would just be a matter of the track. Again, this whole discussion is assuming he is correct about the low becoming that strong.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 2vbvvoj
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by tennessee storm09 2012-02-15, 11:24 pm

man, only if we had more colder air to work with, looking at the 0z gfs, nice storm track... the whole blame state would get buried... only if we had some artic air to serve into the system

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 12:38 am

I had already turned my laptop off to go to bed...but I got to thinking about that sub 990Mb storm that the 18z gfs showed. I didnt say much about the 18z gfs but the 18z GFS is a powerhouse type cyclone that would rank pretty high up on a list of memorable east coast storms. Just from a climo and synoptic standpoint if you live in middle and east TN..just pray that the 18z gfs is right...Im pretty sure most of us would be well pleased if it verified.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 2012021518_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_090

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 2012021518_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_096
Toot
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 12:59 am

Interesting bit on the upcoming storm:

Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by skillsweather 2012-02-16, 1:24 am

Seems there wont be enough cold for us this go around. Maybe the higher parts of the mountains can get some snow as it leaves.

skillsweather
Banned

Posts : 313
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 32
Location : tennessee Wilson county Ne Corner

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by John1122 2012-02-16, 2:24 am

Right now 40N and probably West of I-75 is looking like a nice spot to be. Euro apparently had snow from Middle Tennessee to D.C. One met had 3 different scenarios on AMX and all three pretty much show Middle TN as the one area that saw snow no matter what.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Vanster67 2012-02-16, 6:58 am

0z EURO and 6z GFS look showing some love for Mid TN and NE TN. I cannot seem to post images of the latest maps I am looking at. Any idea on what I am doing wrong?
Vanster67
Vanster67
Admin

Posts : 629
Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie 2012-02-16, 7:00 am

John1122 wrote:Right now 40N and probably West of I-75 is looking like a nice spot to be. Euro apparently had snow from Middle Tennessee to D.C. One met had 3 different scenarios on AMX and all three pretty much show Middle TN as the one area that saw snow no matter what.

Yep the accum maps on the euro show it blowing up right before it exits middle tennessee. Looks like 1-2 inches. .25 qpf

I'll take it. But I'm still hoping for a bit more dynamic cooling.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 9:06 am

Vanster67 wrote:0z EURO and 6z GFS look showing some love for Mid TN and NE TN. I cannot seem to post images of the latest maps I am looking at. Any idea on what I am doing wrong?

Did you try hosting them at somewhere like tinypic.com? Direct links sometimes don't work, depending on where the maps are from.

I just threw up some graphics and text from the 0z Euro in the lounge.
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Dyersburg Weather 2012-02-16, 9:22 am

MEG discussion. Starting to come on board. Surely someone will cash in on this one.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO A 1000MB LOW OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND A 998 MB LOW
OVER NORTH GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THESE PERIODS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE. MAY
NEED A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND RAIN. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S LOOK PROBABLE
SATURDAY IF THE RAIN PUSHES IN SOON ENOUGH.

THE PATTERN ALSO LOOKS MUCH MORE PHASED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
MORE LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE ENDING...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS STILL LOOK A BIT WARM FOR ACCUMULATION. IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED SINCE THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR WINTER
STORMS IN THE MIDSOUTH.
Dyersburg Weather
Dyersburg Weather
Banned

Posts : 342
Join date : 2011-12-25
Age : 54
Location : Dyersburg , TN

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie 2012-02-16, 9:52 am

The NAM says, especially for dyersburg, paducah, clarksville

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 D8c1f2e8_d7e3be54_mother-of-god-super-troopers

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 9:52 am

The thing about the NAM is ...

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Ftocux

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Nam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip

... and that's all I have to say about the NAM.
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 9:57 am

Accuweather's Henry Margusity:

CAT 3 Winter Storm

Here's my first look at snowfall amounts with the storm. I adjusted the snow area north thinking the storm will come a little farther north despite the GFS and Euro.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 11s2t6c
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot 2012-02-16, 10:21 am

The nam looks quite a bit colder and more wet to my eye....

Hope this is the beginning of a trend

Toot
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 10:42 am

I suppose there is still plenty of time for things to go down hill, but I like where we are sitting right now with the modeling. It's looking like we have a decent shot at some amount of accumulating snow.

smartass
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-16, 11:09 am

1000mb at hour 72 on 12z GFS:

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 F9qvq0
Stovepipe
Stovepipe
Founding Member

Posts : 4148
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 48
Location : Knoxville, TN

http://thecountryisgoingtohell.tumblr.com/

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by snowman72 2012-02-16, 11:48 am

Local Mets are starting to buy in, it's going to be a close call IMO just from looking at the data that you guys have posted, if you guys have any insight pls let me know

snowman72
Banned

Posts : 98
Join date : 2011-12-09
Age : 51
Location : foothills of the Smokies (Walland)

Back to top Go down

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 7 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 7 of 39 Previous  1 ... 6, 7, 8 ... 23 ... 39  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum