*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
+19
Grandpa Nasty
Homemommy
ballpark
skillsweather
snowdog
Math/Met
Tom
secleveland
snowman72
Dyersburg Weather
connerconner
Vanster67
John1122
Reb
Adam2014
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
jmundie
Toot
23 posters
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Math/Met wrote:
Assuming he is correct about the 990mb low, then I think you are correct. A system that strong would have potential for strong cold air advection on the back side of it. Plus, a 990mb low in February is going to be pretty efficient at producing its own cold air. The drop in pressure and strong vertical motion within the system would result in dynamic cooling, so someone would likely be cold enough for snow. If that is the case, then it would just be a matter of the track. Again, this whole discussion is assuming he is correct about the low becoming that strong.
Hey M/M do you think that models are correct with the surface temps?...They seem a little warm when compared to other aspects of the thermal profile.
Adam2014 wrote:Every single storm has trended north, the NAM has also trended north. I don't think at all that this storm will stay south. It may but that is just my opinion. I guess I am making a forecast here lol.
Adam go back to the first post of this thread and read the HPC discussion...the GFS is likely too far north.
snowdog wrote:
Just about everything about that HPC map screams big snow for MiddleTN. High in Iowa, check...perfect low track, check. Just need a little more cold air and a tad stronger low. We are really close to getting something good.
Yessir..I like the look of things also...just too many good signals to not pay this some attention.
Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-15, 9:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Like I said it is just my opinion, I am not saying it will happen. But I think the storm will be farther north. The 0z NAM is farther north also. Just an opinion not saying it will happen.
EDIT: Dang the NAM is really farther north, I hope there isn't that much trend there.
EDIT: Dang the NAM is really farther north, I hope there isn't that much trend there.
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
Reb- Admin
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
still the 0z nam not that bad... close to a big event for west tn. on last 2 frames... sure the rest of state will do good if run went further,,, course nam only goes 84
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The warmth is definately my only concern at this point.Reb wrote:lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
Adam2014- Founding Member
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
yep reb, no doubt temps could be issue... like to see a stronger high north. and stronger low, that would help. with dynamic coolingReb wrote:lol adam there will be trends both ways. i like where we are all sitting at this point but its very possible that it will be slightly too warm.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The NAM is a bit further north... and it now appears that this is going to be a miller b, energy transferring from around atlanta to the atlantic coast near norfolk.
Serious dynamic cooling showing up on the NAM. And its likely underdoing it. Still only 1004 on the NAM. If the low pressure is any stronger, it will only increase the dynamic cooling.
Serious dynamic cooling showing up on the NAM. And its likely underdoing it. Still only 1004 on the NAM. If the low pressure is any stronger, it will only increase the dynamic cooling.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
looking at 0z nam, it looks like on that run a rain to snow just about along the 1 40 corridor... could even be some 1 to 3 inch wet snow accumulations fwiw.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Math/Met wrote:Toot wrote:990Mb is a pretty stout for an extratropical storm in the eastern US... and I would think it would have plenty of cold advected wrap around precip into middle and east TN.
Assuming he is correct about the 990mb low, then I think you are correct. A system that strong would have potential for strong cold air advection on the back side of it. Plus, a 990mb low in February is going to be pretty efficient at producing its own cold air. The drop in pressure and strong vertical motion within the system would result in dynamic cooling, so someone would likely be cold enough for snow. If that is the case, then it would just be a matter of the track. Again, this whole discussion is assuming he is correct about the low becoming that strong.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
man, only if we had more colder air to work with, looking at the 0z gfs, nice storm track... the whole blame state would get buried... only if we had some artic air to serve into the system
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
I had already turned my laptop off to go to bed...but I got to thinking about that sub 990Mb storm that the 18z gfs showed. I didnt say much about the 18z gfs but the 18z GFS is a powerhouse type cyclone that would rank pretty high up on a list of memorable east coast storms. Just from a climo and synoptic standpoint if you live in middle and east TN..just pray that the 18z gfs is right...Im pretty sure most of us would be well pleased if it verified.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Seems there wont be enough cold for us this go around. Maybe the higher parts of the mountains can get some snow as it leaves.
skillsweather- Banned
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Right now 40N and probably West of I-75 is looking like a nice spot to be. Euro apparently had snow from Middle Tennessee to D.C. One met had 3 different scenarios on AMX and all three pretty much show Middle TN as the one area that saw snow no matter what.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
0z EURO and 6z GFS look showing some love for Mid TN and NE TN. I cannot seem to post images of the latest maps I am looking at. Any idea on what I am doing wrong?
Vanster67- Admin
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
John1122 wrote:Right now 40N and probably West of I-75 is looking like a nice spot to be. Euro apparently had snow from Middle Tennessee to D.C. One met had 3 different scenarios on AMX and all three pretty much show Middle TN as the one area that saw snow no matter what.
Yep the accum maps on the euro show it blowing up right before it exits middle tennessee. Looks like 1-2 inches. .25 qpf
I'll take it. But I'm still hoping for a bit more dynamic cooling.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Vanster67 wrote:0z EURO and 6z GFS look showing some love for Mid TN and NE TN. I cannot seem to post images of the latest maps I am looking at. Any idea on what I am doing wrong?
Did you try hosting them at somewhere like tinypic.com? Direct links sometimes don't work, depending on where the maps are from.
I just threw up some graphics and text from the 0z Euro in the lounge.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
MEG discussion. Starting to come on board. Surely someone will cash in on this one.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO A 1000MB LOW OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND A 998 MB LOW
OVER NORTH GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THESE PERIODS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE. MAY
NEED A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND RAIN. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S LOOK PROBABLE
SATURDAY IF THE RAIN PUSHES IN SOON ENOUGH.
THE PATTERN ALSO LOOKS MUCH MORE PHASED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
MORE LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE ENDING...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS STILL LOOK A BIT WARM FOR ACCUMULATION. IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED SINCE THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR WINTER
STORMS IN THE MIDSOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO A 1000MB LOW OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND A 998 MB LOW
OVER NORTH GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN. GIVEN THE SYSTEM
ORIGIN...IT WILL HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THESE PERIODS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE. MAY
NEED A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND RAIN. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S LOOK PROBABLE
SATURDAY IF THE RAIN PUSHES IN SOON ENOUGH.
THE PATTERN ALSO LOOKS MUCH MORE PHASED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
MORE LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE ENDING...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS STILL LOOK A BIT WARM FOR ACCUMULATION. IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED SINCE THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR WINTER
STORMS IN THE MIDSOUTH.
Dyersburg Weather- Banned
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The NAM says, especially for dyersburg, paducah, clarksville
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The thing about the NAM is ...
... and that's all I have to say about the NAM.
... and that's all I have to say about the NAM.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Accuweather's Henry Margusity:
CAT 3 Winter Storm
Here's my first look at snowfall amounts with the storm. I adjusted the snow area north thinking the storm will come a little farther north despite the GFS and Euro.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The nam looks quite a bit colder and more wet to my eye....
Hope this is the beginning of a trend
Hope this is the beginning of a trend
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
I suppose there is still plenty of time for things to go down hill, but I like where we are sitting right now with the modeling. It's looking like we have a decent shot at some amount of accumulating snow.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Local Mets are starting to buy in, it's going to be a close call IMO just from looking at the data that you guys have posted, if you guys have any insight pls let me know
snowman72- Banned
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