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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 2:16 am

0z Euro snowfall:

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-14, 5:45 am

JKL this morning,

BY SATURDAY...A LEFTOVER CUTOFF LOW THAT HAD BEEN RESIDING ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE EJECTED EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...AT LEAST BRINGING SOME GLANCING PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR SOME SNOW...HOWEVER THERE IS A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
RIGHT NOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND
NOT PLAY THIS IS UP TOO MUCH UNTIL BETTER MODEL GELLING TAKES PLACE.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-14, 5:52 am

And an amazingly detail/optimistic AFD from MRX compared to their normal 2 lines.

UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS WILL PRODUCE CYCLO-GENESIS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COAST SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OR EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE EXACT PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW COLD AIR GETS
PULLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-14, 6:20 am

06 op and ens rides this out to sea rather than having it turn the corner. The op is so far south that we get pretty much no precip and very warm air. The GFES throws down about .1-.25 inches of precip and is colder.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-14, 7:24 am

6z run of the GFS did not look to hot for this time period. Hope we see s NW trend and more of a ridge to get the cold air in better. yikes
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 8:30 am

This is by no means a similar setup to the system that just pissed everybody off yesterday and last night. I heard some people calling that system a southern slider and that was just not the case...there was a more dominant LPS to our N/NW advecting warm air into the state. (NOT A SOUTHERN SLIDER.)

What is being shown by the majority of model guidance is more of a classic setup for snow in middle and east TN and there is quite a bit of support for this. I wouldnt pay a whole lot of attention to smaller scale details right now as all of them will change several times...but its nice to see such a track being depicted by models. hurry

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-14, 8:36 am

Toot wrote:This is by no means a similar setup to the system that just pissed everybody off yesterday and last night. I heard some people calling that system a southern slider and that was just not the case...there was a more dominant LPS to our N/NW advecting warm air into the state. (NOT A SOUTHERN SLIDER.)

What is being shown by the majority of model guidance is more of a classic setup for snow in middle and east TN and there is quite a bit of support for this. I wouldnt pay a whole lot of attention to smaller scale details right now as all of them will change several times...but its nice to see such a track being depicted by models. hurry

Thanks for a very knowledgeable insight. When should we start to get a more solid idea of what may come around?
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 8:39 am

Id say when the nam starts to pick this up Vann we will have a much better hold on this system.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 8:59 am

I'd feel pretty good about this threat in the mountains in east tennessee.

For the rest of us at lower elevations - we're gonna have trouble at the surface unless this thing bombs, as was depicted in the 18z ensembles yesterday.

Though on the east side of the apps could actually do pretty well as it turns the corner, with thehigh in the NE, that flow is going to pull the cold air down the east side of the mountains.

Timing is a concern as well. With the marginal cold being depicted currently, the system needs to speed up a bit because the cold air is still progressive.

Just can't buy anything this year.

And btw - the storm yesterday being modeled went back and forth with which low would be primary. There were days when the primary low was along the gulf (back with the -nao was holding a bit better) as it became clear the last couple days that the greenland block was moving out, it allowed the northern stream of the shortwave to become the primary forcing mechanism.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 9:59 am

6z DGEX

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 11:04 am

Stovepipe wrote:6z DGEX


Congrats Monticello Arkansas.

Kinda hoping this is a ULL instead of a phase. May be our best shot outside of the mountains.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 11:16 am

nrgjeff at American:

It is all about timing as others have stated. Players include the Great Lakes shortwave (GL s/w) and the upstream Pac-NW trough. The latter will influence the all important timing (and perhaps strength) of the system of interest kicking out of Texas. Simple explanation of the 00/06Z GFS differences is just timing. The 00Z was the first GFS run to show a Euro-like solution with our Texas system kicking with/ahead of the GL s/w. Perhaps the 12Z GFS and subsequent runs will go back to the Euro, but one can't just throw out the 06Z as rubbish. This far out it is perfectly acceptable for a human or a computer to be forecasting the Texas system behind the GL s/w which is what the 06Z does. That puts our system in subsidence behind the jet streak associated with the GL s/w. Short wave ridging is another way to put it. The 00Z GFS and Euro have our Texas system coming out with/ahead of the GL s/w which is at least neutral. if slightly ahead that puts our Texas system in ascent ahead of the GL s/w and also gives the system a slight negative tilt. All are fine and good, but not if the 06Z GFS is correct. Remember the GFS had been consistently like the 06Z in prior runs except the 00Z.

I'd wait for the timing issue to work out before even addressing cold air. Maybe when our system is completely onshore today? Of course "better" timing would also generate a little local dynamic cooling with better lift, but not enough to overcome issues in the boundary layer elsewhere. Unfortunately NC may be hosed outside the mountains. Piedmont is not even looking that good with the sfc high back over the Midwest. I don't see a way to deliver cold air east of the Apps. Of course the mountains would do well. Cold air supply may be there for lower elevations of northeast Tennessee, but middle Tenn prolly misses out on best QPF. Looks like another typical Southern forecast (2010 was an exception): When in doubt between rain and snow just go rain.

Totally different story in the mountains, regarding cold air, but even the mountains need the better timing. If the system comes together, timing and interaction with the GL s/w, the mountains will be set.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Toot on 2012-02-14, 11:27 am

I will take my chances with whats being modeled. No ull for me when you get a gulf low like the one being modeled most of the time thermal profiles for east Tn will be favorable. Im just looking for trends regarding stormtrack at this point.

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 1:01 pm

Canadian would make all of us happy. Too bad the Canadian has been terrible in this range this year x

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 1:11 pm

jmundie wrote:Canadian would make all of us happy. Too bad the Canadian has been terrible in this range this year x



Want
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-14, 1:55 pm

Its the Canadian vs the rest of the world.

I don't like our chances.

At least we're below normal for the first half of february

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 2:17 pm

good lord, inaccuweather..dont get my hopes up

please

too late Sad


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 2:46 pm

Thanks Reb, I needed a new wallpaper for my computer.

rock on
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 2:47 pm

Reb, since my sub ran out, would you mind keeping us updated with Frank Straight's thoughts? Assuming you have a subscription.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 2:52 pm

msuwx at American:

A few quick thoughts on the 12z model data....a lot of this will be shop talk.....keep that in mind.

12z Euro looked oh so close to a bombing phase around 108, but the phase was not terribly strong I think primarily due the orientation of the Great Lakes disturbance.

12z GFS still looks off to me, like the 6z. The entire orientation of the flow pattern at 500mb is different than most other modeling. It might score the coup though...who knows.

12z Canadian is nice for a chunk of NC. Pretty nice phasing, and because of that, a nice pulling sothward of the colder air aloft.

12z UKMET is weaker and farther south.

Here is what to take from this IMO. I see no trend in the modeling. What I see is each time a model is run, you get its latest interpretation of how a very chaotic 500mb pattern will look this weekend. There is no trend north or south....there is just varying positions and strengths of features.

For the upper Southeast to see a nice winter storm, we want some good phasing. Each model has taken turns showing this from time to time. That is needed to pull the colder air necessary for snow southward, and also get the precip rates heavy enough to overcome some marginal low level temps in some places.

Players remain on the field, and I am no more encouraged or discouraged than I was at this point yesterday.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 2:53 pm

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 3:10 pm

stove, i dont have a sub, but i suppose i could get a free trial. ill have to do that later when i get home

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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 3:14 pm

No worries Reb, I just saw that you posted that accupro snow map earlier and thought you had subscribed. My "wife" may sign up for a free trial tonight. Next season I may have to go StormVista. AccuPro's slow-ass Euro maps are frustrating. Too bad they don't have a free trial.

smartass
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Reb on 2012-02-14, 3:21 pm

lol it was posted on their facebook. im afraid that map is going to end up giving me:


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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-14, 3:38 pm

LOL

Well I was referring to this post:

Reb wrote:

But it doesn't matter. Yes that weekend scenario map is just setting us up for heartbreak.
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Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

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