*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
+19
Grandpa Nasty
Homemommy
ballpark
skillsweather
snowdog
Math/Met
Tom
secleveland
snowman72
Dyersburg Weather
connerconner
Vanster67
John1122
Reb
Adam2014
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
jmundie
Toot
23 posters
Page 22 of 39
Page 22 of 39 • 1 ... 12 ... 21, 22, 23 ... 30 ... 39
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
All of that is true Mundie, good explanation, but the Euro has accounted for those issues and still dumps 3+ in the central valley. We may end up with only dusting but 2 or more is not out of the question with this system so the HPC map isn't out of line based on everything I've seen the past 48 hours.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Having said that, I'm fully braced for the HRRR to show a valley screw job.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
O.k. the moisture is coming from the gulf, and it's gonna be warm moisture..right? So, how do we overcome the "warmness" of this whole scenario? We got warm air, warm ground, warm moisture coming. And it seems the cold air isn't the kind that sticks around. It's gonna be 50 on Monday.
Sorry, I'm not trying to poop on the excitement, but I don't get it.
Sorry, I'm not trying to poop on the excitement, but I don't get it.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Mommy strong cold advection will rush into the cold sector of the low as it starts to slide east East of us. The ground temps dont matter this will be a very wet snow that will come down at a good rate and that will take ground temps out of play. But this snow wont last long on the ground without a artic airmass in wake of the low
Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-18, 9:58 am; edited 1 time in total
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Toot wrote:Mommy strong cold advection will rush into the cold sector of the low as it starts to go SE of us. The ground temps dont matter this will be a very wet snow that will come down at a good rate and that will take ground temps out of play. But this snow wont last long on the ground without a artic airmass in wake of the low
O.k. Thanks, Toot.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Folks, I just want to say that as things pick up over the next 24 hours or so we will need to keep this thread a little more tidy than usual. Off topic posts or posts that aren't backed up with data, etc will likely be deleted, no offense meant. Questions and other discussion is fine, just trying to cut down on the unsupported claims that could clutter everything up.
This is going to be a fun ride. Good luck to everyone in TN on getting some snow action!
This is going to be a fun ride. Good luck to everyone in TN on getting some snow action!
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Stovepipe wrote:All of that is true Mundie, good explanation, but the Euro has accounted for those issues and still dumps 3+ in the central valley. We may end up with only dusting but 2 or more is not out of the question with this system so the HPC map isn't out of line based on everything I've seen the past 48 hours.
After Monday - I have a little less faith in the euro accumulation models, especially with respect to evaportqional cooling. The text was right last week and the accum maps busted for west and middle tennessee.
When you're down in a hole - it takes longer for whatever is at the surface to move out. Winds aren't as helpfull when they are being blocked by the plateau and the smokies.
You have to have the dry air rushing in, and it comes in ok in the north, but south of knoxville in the valley will have a hard time cooling the Colin to te surface.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Hi res NMM simulated radar
Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-18, 10:39 am; edited 1 time in total
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
I would think they would have to adjust some lows if snow was on the ground at night time. We would have raditional cooling from the snow pack on the ground.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
ballpark wrote:I would think they would have to adjust some lows if snow was on the ground at night time. We would have raditional cooling from the snow pack on the ground.
Agreed Ballpark.
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Euro has lows in the low teens on the northern plateau
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
BOOM???????????
Vanster67- Admin
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Join date : 2011-12-08
Age : 57
Location : Monterey, TN
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Toot when you say boom, please tell why yiu are saying it man
Tom- Banned
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Join date : 2012-01-06
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
because thats a sweet ass nasty ass looking storm, broseferson
Reb- Admin
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Location : Maryville, TN
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Toot wrote:Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow
From my understanding thats what there going to put out. And also from my understanding (could be wrong) they usually dont issue them untill like right before its about to happen. Were still 24hrs away over there.
skillsweather- Banned
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Location : tennessee Wilson county Ne Corner
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
mmm...eggs wrote:Toot wrote:Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow
From my understanding thats what there going to put out. And also from my understanding (could be wrong) they usually dont issue them untill like right before its about to happen. Were still 24hrs away over there.
Yeah - I would think they wait until the afternoon package at the earliest. Its possible MRX could wait til the morning shift, though I think OHX has to do something in the afternoon, so that its on the news tonight.
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-19
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
It is time to start paying attention to charts like these as well. We need to start looking for the areas of greatest pressure changes to get a better idea of where the low will actually go and compare it to model data. Keep in mind that lows tend to migrate towards areas of greatest pressure falls.
It will also be interesting to see how much effect the deep convection has on this system.
It will also be interesting to see how much effect the deep convection has on this system.
Math/Met- Meteorologist
- Posts : 226
Join date : 2011-12-05
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Not that is matters at this point, but here is the 12z Euro text:
TYS
BNA
CSV
CHA
TRI
MKL
MEM
TYS
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 3.9 5.1 1018 76 75 0.00 563 548
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 15.5 5.3 1017 40 55 0.00 564 550
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 10.4 4.3 1015 49 73 0.00 563 550
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.7 2.7 1014 65 97 0.02 562 551
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 5.3 3.3 1009 88 99 0.09 558 551
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 5.8 1.7 1005 97 100 0.45 551 547
MON 00Z 20-FEB -0.5 -5.2 1015 91 93 0.34 550 538
MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.1 -4.2 1020 86 60 0.04 553 536
MON 12Z 20-FEB -2.8 -2.3 1025 89 15 0.00 561 542
MON 18Z 20-FEB 7.8 2.2 1024 47 5 0.00 565 546
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 4.1 3.6 1022 68 4 0.00 567 549
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 1.2 6.0 1023 76 4 0.00 568 550
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 3.1 2.7 1022 71 55 0.00 565 548
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 11.5 2.5 1017 53 87 0.00 562 548
BNA
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 5.5 4.9 1019 73 68 0.00 563 547
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 13.0 5.0 1019 43 67 0.00 563 547
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 9.7 3.9 1016 57 70 0.00 562 548
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.0 1.9 1015 66 95 0.04 559 547
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.8 0.3 1011 87 100 0.32 554 546
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 1.2 -2.5 1014 87 98 0.45 551 540
MON 00Z 20-FEB 0.6 -4.0 1018 74 73 0.06 549 534
MON 06Z 20-FEB -1.6 -1.2 1022 71 25 0.00 558 541
MON 12Z 20-FEB -4.4 0.6 1025 81 6 0.00 563 543
MON 18Z 20-FEB 5.4 3.1 1025 50 4 0.00 565 545
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 2.8 6.2 1021 69 3 0.00 566 549
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 3.2 4.1 1020 70 13 0.00 565 549
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 5.8 3.1 1017 74 51 0.00 561 547
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 10.4 2.6 1015 79 8 0.04 559 546
CSV
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 5.8 4.7 1018 68 75 0.00 563 548
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 14.3 4.5 1017 34 57 0.00 564 549
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 9.2 4.0 1016 57 71 0.00 562 549
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.4 2.1 1014 60 100 0.01 561 549
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.1 2.2 1010 95 95 0.19 556 548
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 0.0 0.0 1010 94 99 0.52 551 543
MON 00Z 20-FEB -1.8 -4.6 1017 92 93 0.26 550 536
MON 06Z 20-FEB -6.3 -2.4 1022 93 36 0.03 555 538
MON 12Z 20-FEB -8.4 -0.6 1025 87 10 0.00 562 542
MON 18Z 20-FEB 4.0 3.2 1025 60 4 0.00 565 546
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 1.2 5.4 1022 65 5 0.00 567 549
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 2.1 5.7 1022 75 4 0.00 567 549
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 2.8 2.6 1021 83 89 0.01 564 547
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 8.5 3.2 1017 71 82 0.01 561 547
CHA
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 5.8 5.9 1018 76 33 0.00 566 550
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 16.2 5.4 1017 38 50 0.00 566 551
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 11.4 4.0 1015 79 84 0.01 564 552
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 9.0 3.6 1012 94 100 0.13 563 553
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 5.8 3.6 1007 97 100 0.36 557 552
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 4.0 0.9 1007 97 100 0.49 551 546
MON 00Z 20-FEB 1.4 -3.1 1016 83 80 0.14 552 540
MON 06Z 20-FEB -0.8 -1.2 1020 82 28 0.00 559 543
MON 12Z 20-FEB -2.7 1.7 1024 84 6 0.00 564 545
MON 18Z 20-FEB 8.4 4.4 1024 44 3 0.00 567 547
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 6.9 4.0 1022 61 6 0.00 569 551
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 5.8 4.8 1023 67 8 0.00 569 550
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 4.6 1.7 1023 79 87 0.01 566 548
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 11.1 3.6 1019 64 69 0.00 565 549
WED 00Z 22-FEB 10.0 5.0 1017 91 6 0.02 563 549
TRI
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 3.6 4.2 1019 71 84 0.00 561 545
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 14.4 4.2 1017 34 81 0.00 563 548
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 9.1 4.3 1016 58 80 0.00 562 549
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 6.0 3.2 1015 64 79 0.00 562 549
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 4.7 2.5 1011 73 99 0.02 558 549
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 3.9 -0.6 1007 94 95 0.23 552 546
MON 00Z 20-FEB 0.7 -4.7 1011 94 98 0.25 548 539
MON 06Z 20-FEB -0.8 -5.7 1019 86 90 0.08 549 534
MON 12Z 20-FEB -2.5 -5.3 1024 88 32 0.01 557 538
MON 18Z 20-FEB 6.0 -0.3 1025 47 8 0.00 563 543
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 2.2 1.6 1023 70 5 0.00 565 547
TUE 06Z 21-FEB -0.1 5.0 1023 73 5 0.00 568 549
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 0.8 2.5 1023 70 6 0.00 565 546
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 11.2 1.7 1018 45 49 0.01 562 547
WED 00Z 22-FEB 9.2 3.5 1015 70 9 0.00 559 547
MKL
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MKL LAT= 35.60 LON= -88.92 ELE= 433
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 6.3 5.5 1018 71 63 0.00 564 549
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 12.9 5.3 1019 45 78 0.00 563 548
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 10.8 3.9 1015 55 70 0.00 561 549
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 7.8 1.6 1014 65 100 0.05 558 547
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.6 -0.2 1013 92 99 0.16 553 543
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 5.7 -1.2 1016 70 85 0.18 553 540
MON 00Z 20-FEB 5.6 -1.0 1018 57 30 0.00 556 541
MON 06Z 20-FEB 0.7 1.2 1022 68 6 0.00 562 545
MON 12Z 20-FEB -2.0 3.2 1024 74 3 0.00 564 545
MON 18Z 20-FEB 9.4 3.7 1023 35 3 0.00 566 547
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 7.1 5.3 1018 54 10 0.00 566 551
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 6.1 3.0 1018 64 90 0.02 564 549
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 7.3 4.9 1015 78 98 0.04 559 547
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 15.0 2.3 1015 55 8 0.05 560 547
WED 00Z 22-FEB 10.7 2.6 1015 55 7 0.00 559 546
MEM
- Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285
12Z FEB18
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB 6.6 6.2 1018 65 78 0.00 564 550
SAT 18Z 18-FEB 12.2 5.2 1018 52 76 0.00 563 548
SUN 00Z 19-FEB 11.7 3.6 1013 49 84 0.00 561 550
SUN 06Z 19-FEB 8.5 0.9 1012 69 100 0.02 558 547
SUN 12Z 19-FEB 2.7 -0.1 1013 97 98 0.28 553 542
SUN 18Z 19-FEB 7.3 -0.5 1018 68 51 0.11 555 541
MON 00Z 20-FEB 6.6 0.7 1018 54 5 0.00 559 544
MON 06Z 20-FEB 0.4 0.7 1022 67 2 0.00 564 546
MON 12Z 20-FEB -1.5 2.7 1023 69 5 0.00 565 547
MON 18Z 20-FEB 10.8 3.5 1023 38 4 0.00 567 548
TUE 00Z 21-FEB 8.7 6.4 1017 45 13 0.00 566 551
TUE 06Z 21-FEB 9.0 3.2 1017 52 84 0.01 564 550
TUE 12Z 21-FEB 9.0 4.7 1015 90 64 0.05 560 548
TUE 18Z 21-FEB 15.6 3.7 1017 55 6 0.01 562 548
WED 00Z 22-FEB 11.1 3.5 1016 47 11 0.00 561 548
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
Math/Met wrote:It is time to start paying attention to charts like these as well. We need to start looking for the areas of greatest pressure changes to get a better idea of where the low will actually go and compare it to model data. Keep in mind that lows tend to migrate towards areas of greatest pressure falls.
It will also be interesting to see how much effect the deep convection has on this system.
Good stuff Math/Met. Could you by chance post those precip type charts that you typically post during storms or is it too early for that yet?
Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*
The euro accum maps just destroy Nashville to Monterey. The highest accums they've showed with this system. Looks like 1-2 inch per hour rates for 6 hours (if the maps are accurate)
jmundie- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-19
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