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Toot (6644)
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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

+19
Grandpa Nasty
Homemommy
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skillsweather
snowdog
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Tom
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Vanster67
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tennessee storm09
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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 9:41 am

All of that is true Mundie, good explanation, but the Euro has accounted for those issues and still dumps 3+ in the central valley. We may end up with only dusting but 2 or more is not out of the question with this system so the HPC map isn't out of line based on everything I've seen the past 48 hours.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 9:43 am

Having said that, I'm fully braced for the HRRR to show a valley screw job.
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Post by Homemommy 2012-02-18, 9:49 am

O.k. the moisture is coming from the gulf, and it's gonna be warm moisture..right? So, how do we overcome the "warmness" of this whole scenario? We got warm air, warm ground, warm moisture coming. And it seems the cold air isn't the kind that sticks around. It's gonna be 50 on Monday.

Sorry, I'm not trying to poop on the excitement, but I don't get it.
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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 9:54 am

Mommy strong cold advection will rush into the cold sector of the low as it starts to slide east East of us. The ground temps dont matter this will be a very wet snow that will come down at a good rate and that will take ground temps out of play. But this snow wont last long on the ground without a artic airmass in wake of the low


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-18, 9:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Homemommy 2012-02-18, 9:58 am

Toot wrote:Mommy strong cold advection will rush into the cold sector of the low as it starts to go SE of us. The ground temps dont matter this will be a very wet snow that will come down at a good rate and that will take ground temps out of play. But this snow wont last long on the ground without a artic airmass in wake of the low

O.k. Thanks, Toot.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 10:06 am

Folks, I just want to say that as things pick up over the next 24 hours or so we will need to keep this thread a little more tidy than usual. Off topic posts or posts that aren't backed up with data, etc will likely be deleted, no offense meant. Questions and other discussion is fine, just trying to cut down on the unsupported claims that could clutter everything up.

This is going to be a fun ride. Good luck to everyone in TN on getting some snow action!

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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 10:08 am

Funny pics and funny posts will be allowed
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 10:09 am

Of course!

smartass
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Post by jmundie 2012-02-18, 10:23 am

Stovepipe wrote:All of that is true Mundie, good explanation, but the Euro has accounted for those issues and still dumps 3+ in the central valley. We may end up with only dusting but 2 or more is not out of the question with this system so the HPC map isn't out of line based on everything I've seen the past 48 hours.

After Monday - I have a little less faith in the euro accumulation models, especially with respect to evaportqional cooling. The text was right last week and the accum maps busted for west and middle tennessee.

When you're down in a hole - it takes longer for whatever is at the surface to move out. Winds aren't as helpfull when they are being blocked by the plateau and the smokies.

You have to have the dry air rushing in, and it comes in ok in the north, but south of knoxville in the valley will have a hard time cooling the Colin to te surface.

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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 10:34 am

Hi res NMM simulated radar
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Rad27

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Rad32*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Rad34


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-18, 10:39 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 10:37 am

same model with surface temps

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Temp27
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Temp34
*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Temp36
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Post by ballpark 2012-02-18, 10:47 am

I would think they would have to adjust some lows if snow was on the ground at night time. We would have raditional cooling from the snow pack on the ground.

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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 10:49 am

ballpark wrote:I would think they would have to adjust some lows if snow was on the ground at night time. We would have raditional cooling from the snow pack on the ground.

Agreed Ballpark.
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Post by jmundie 2012-02-18, 11:11 am

Euro has lows in the low teens on the northern plateau

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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 11:55 am

BOOM!!!

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 GOES1445201204965U2DR

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Pmsl
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Post by Toot 2012-02-18, 12:10 pm

Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow facepalm
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Post by Vanster67 2012-02-18, 12:14 pm

BOOM??????????? rock on
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Post by Tom 2012-02-18, 12:29 pm

Toot when you say boom, please tell why yiu are saying it man

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Post by Reb 2012-02-18, 12:33 pm

because thats a sweet ass nasty ass looking storm, broseferson
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Post by skillsweather 2012-02-18, 12:50 pm

Toot wrote:Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow facepalm

From my understanding thats what there going to put out. And also from my understanding (could be wrong) they usually dont issue them untill like right before its about to happen. Were still 24hrs away over there.

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Post by jmundie 2012-02-18, 12:55 pm

mmm...eggs wrote:
Toot wrote:Where is everybody?.....MRX doesnt even have an advisory for the highest elevations of the smokies..who will likely pick up 6+ inches of snow facepalm

From my understanding thats what there going to put out. And also from my understanding (could be wrong) they usually dont issue them untill like right before its about to happen. Were still 24hrs away over there.

Yeah - I would think they wait until the afternoon package at the earliest. Its possible MRX could wait til the morning shift, though I think OHX has to do something in the afternoon, so that its on the news tonight.

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Post by Math/Met 2012-02-18, 1:13 pm

It is time to start paying attention to charts like these as well. We need to start looking for the areas of greatest pressure changes to get a better idea of where the low will actually go and compare it to model data. Keep in mind that lows tend to migrate towards areas of greatest pressure falls.

It will also be interesting to see how much effect the deep convection has on this system.

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Sfc_con_3pres

*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Pchg

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 1:13 pm

Not that is matters at this point, but here is the 12z Euro text:

TYS

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=  981

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  3.9    5.1    1018      76      75    0.00    563    548   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  15.5    5.3    1017      40      55    0.00    564    550   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  10.4    4.3    1015      49      73    0.00    563    550   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  7.7    2.7    1014      65      97    0.02    562    551   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  5.3    3.3    1009      88      99    0.09    558    551   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  5.8    1.7    1005      97    100    0.45    551    547   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  -0.5    -5.2    1015      91      93    0.34    550    538   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  -1.1    -4.2    1020      86      60    0.04    553    536   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -2.8    -2.3    1025      89      15    0.00    561    542   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  7.8    2.2    1024      47      5    0.00    565    546   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  4.1    3.6    1022      68      4    0.00    567    549   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  1.2    6.0    1023      76      4    0.00    568    550   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  3.1    2.7    1022      71      55    0.00    565    548   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  11.5    2.5    1017      53      87    0.00    562    548   

BNA

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=  591

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  5.5    4.9    1019      73      68    0.00    563    547   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  13.0    5.0    1019      43      67    0.00    563    547   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  9.7    3.9    1016      57      70    0.00    562    548   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  7.0    1.9    1015      66      95    0.04    559    547   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  2.8    0.3    1011      87    100    0.32    554    546   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  1.2    -2.5    1014      87      98    0.45    551    540   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  0.6    -4.0    1018      74      73    0.06    549    534   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  -1.6    -1.2    1022      71      25    0.00    558    541   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -4.4    0.6    1025      81      6    0.00    563    543   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  5.4    3.1    1025      50      4    0.00    565    545   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  2.8    6.2    1021      69      3    0.00    566    549   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  3.2    4.1    1020      70      13    0.00    565    549   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  5.8    3.1    1017      74      51    0.00    561    547   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  10.4    2.6    1015      79      8    0.04    559    546 

CSV

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  5.8    4.7    1018      68      75    0.00    563    548   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  14.3    4.5    1017      34      57    0.00    564    549   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  9.2    4.0    1016      57      71    0.00    562    549   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  7.4    2.1    1014      60    100    0.01    561    549   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  2.1    2.2    1010      95      95    0.19    556    548   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  0.0    0.0    1010      94      99    0.52    551    543   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  -1.8    -4.6    1017      92      93    0.26    550    536   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  -6.3    -2.4    1022      93      36    0.03    555    538   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -8.4    -0.6    1025      87      10    0.00    562    542   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  4.0    3.2    1025      60      4    0.00    565    546   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  1.2    5.4    1022      65      5    0.00    567    549   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  2.1    5.7    1022      75      4    0.00    567    549   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  2.8    2.6    1021      83      89    0.01    564    547   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  8.5    3.2    1017      71      82    0.01    561    547

CHA

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=  689

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  5.8    5.9    1018      76      33    0.00    566    550   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  16.2    5.4    1017      38      50    0.00    566    551   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  11.4    4.0    1015      79      84    0.01    564    552   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  9.0    3.6    1012      94    100    0.13    563    553   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  5.8    3.6    1007      97    100    0.36    557    552   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  4.0    0.9    1007      97    100    0.49    551    546   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  1.4    -3.1    1016      83      80    0.14    552    540   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  -0.8    -1.2    1020      82      28    0.00    559    543   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -2.7    1.7    1024      84      6    0.00    564    545   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  8.4    4.4    1024      44      3    0.00    567    547   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  6.9    4.0    1022      61      6    0.00    569    551   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  5.8    4.8    1023      67      8    0.00    569    550   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  4.6    1.7    1023      79      87    0.01    566    548   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  11.1    3.6    1019      64      69    0.00    565    549   
WED 00Z 22-FEB  10.0    5.0    1017      91      6    0.02    563    549 

TRI

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  3.6    4.2    1019      71      84    0.00    561    545   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  14.4    4.2    1017      34      81    0.00    563    548   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  9.1    4.3    1016      58      80    0.00    562    549   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  6.0    3.2    1015      64      79    0.00    562    549   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  4.7    2.5    1011      73      99    0.02    558    549   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  3.9    -0.6    1007      94      95    0.23    552    546   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  0.7    -4.7    1011      94      98    0.25    548    539   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  -0.8    -5.7    1019      86      90    0.08    549    534   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -2.5    -5.3    1024      88      32    0.01    557    538   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  6.0    -0.3    1025      47      8    0.00    563    543   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  2.2    1.6    1023      70      5    0.00    565    547   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  -0.1    5.0    1023      73      5    0.00    568    549   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  0.8    2.5    1023      70      6    0.00    565    546   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  11.2    1.7    1018      45      49    0.01    562    547   
WED 00Z 22-FEB  9.2    3.5    1015      70      9    0.00    559    547 

MKL

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MKL    LAT=  35.60 LON=  -88.92 ELE=  433

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  6.3    5.5    1018      71      63    0.00    564    549   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  12.9    5.3    1019      45      78    0.00    563    548   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  10.8    3.9    1015      55      70    0.00    561    549   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  7.8    1.6    1014      65    100    0.05    558    547   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  2.6    -0.2    1013      92      99    0.16    553    543   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  5.7    -1.2    1016      70      85    0.18    553    540   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  5.6    -1.0    1018      57      30    0.00    556    541   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  0.7    1.2    1022      68      6    0.00    562    545   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -2.0    3.2    1024      74      3    0.00    564    545   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  9.4    3.7    1023      35      3    0.00    566    547   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  7.1    5.3    1018      54      10    0.00    566    551   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  6.1    3.0    1018      64      90    0.02    564    549   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  7.3    4.9    1015      78      98    0.04    559    547   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  15.0    2.3    1015      55      8    0.05    560    547   
WED 00Z 22-FEB  10.7    2.6    1015      55      7    0.00    559    546

MEM

Code:
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=  285

                                            12Z FEB18
                2 M    850    SFC    SFC    700    6 HR    500    1000
                TMP    TMP    PRS    RHU    RHU    QPF    HGT    500
                (C)    (C)    (MB)    (PCT)  (PCT)  (IN)    (DM)    THK
SAT 12Z 18-FEB  6.6    6.2    1018      65      78    0.00    564    550   
SAT 18Z 18-FEB  12.2    5.2    1018      52      76    0.00    563    548   
SUN 00Z 19-FEB  11.7    3.6    1013      49      84    0.00    561    550   
SUN 06Z 19-FEB  8.5    0.9    1012      69    100    0.02    558    547   
SUN 12Z 19-FEB  2.7    -0.1    1013      97      98    0.28    553    542   
SUN 18Z 19-FEB  7.3    -0.5    1018      68      51    0.11    555    541   
MON 00Z 20-FEB  6.6    0.7    1018      54      5    0.00    559    544   
MON 06Z 20-FEB  0.4    0.7    1022      67      2    0.00    564    546   
MON 12Z 20-FEB  -1.5    2.7    1023      69      5    0.00    565    547   
MON 18Z 20-FEB  10.8    3.5    1023      38      4    0.00    567    548   
TUE 00Z 21-FEB  8.7    6.4    1017      45      13    0.00    566    551   
TUE 06Z 21-FEB  9.0    3.2    1017      52      84    0.01    564    550   
TUE 12Z 21-FEB  9.0    4.7    1015      90      64    0.05    560    548   
TUE 18Z 21-FEB  15.6    3.7    1017      55      6    0.01    562    548   
WED 00Z 22-FEB  11.1    3.5    1016      47      11    0.00    561    548 
Stovepipe
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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by Stovepipe 2012-02-18, 1:16 pm

Math/Met wrote:It is time to start paying attention to charts like these as well. We need to start looking for the areas of greatest pressure changes to get a better idea of where the low will actually go and compare it to model data. Keep in mind that lows tend to migrate towards areas of greatest pressure falls.

It will also be interesting to see how much effect the deep convection has on this system.


Good stuff Math/Met. Could you by chance post those precip type charts that you typically post during storms or is it too early for that yet?
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*FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT* - Page 22 Empty Re: *FEBUARY 19th/20th 2012 SNOW THREAT*

Post by jmundie 2012-02-18, 1:25 pm

The euro accum maps just destroy Nashville to Monterey. The highest accums they've showed with this system. Looks like 1-2 inch per hour rates for 6 hours (if the maps are accurate)

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