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Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

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Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-19, 9:57 pm

A LPS and an arctic airmass could possibly produce some wintry weather if pattern allows..right now looks like a strong lakes cutter with a possible low forming on its cold front







Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-15, 11:17 pm; edited 4 times in total

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-19, 10:42 pm

12z euro

500mb vort ...look at that trough


2m temp and 700mb RH

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-19, 11:59 pm

you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-20, 12:01 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

You can create a svr thread for it...its a legit snow and svr threat...but we will have to keep them seperate

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-20, 12:05 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

You can create a svr thread for it...its a legit snow and svr threat...but we will have to keep them seperate
yeah, i know bud.. my bad

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-02-20, 7:07 am

OHX list this coming Friday night as 30% rain/Snow showers low of 29..
Work it, work it BABY!!!
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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-20, 8:21 am

Possible Extreme fetch system hurry

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-20, 8:33 am

Ugh...but I was ready for spring




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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by snowdog on 2012-02-20, 10:04 am

Long range Euro looked pretty blah. Plenty of cold in Canada to work with but it has a hard time making it southeast. There just has been no mechanism (NAO) to get the cold into the southeast for an extended period thsi winter. To pay for this craptastic winter I'd like to see a solid NAO from October to March next year. So frustrating.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-20, 10:05 am

snowdog wrote:Long range Euro looked pretty blah. Plenty of cold in Canada to work with but it has a hard time making it southeast. There just has been no mechanism (NAO) to get the cold into the southeast. To pay for this craptastic winter I'd like to see a solid NAO from October to March next year. So frustrating.
the euro actually looked warm in longer range

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-20, 10:30 am

Both models show some battling between a strong arctic airmassand the southeast ridge.

Looks like more of a chance of ice/sleet to me. But Tennessee does look to be in the battle zone. We could end up on the warm side or on the cold/snow side.


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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-20, 10:33 am

jmundie wrote:Both models show some battling between a strong arctic airmassand the southeast ridge.

Looks like more of a chance of ice/sleet to me. But Tennessee does look to be in the battle zone. We could end up on the warm side or on the cold/snow side.

yep, that spells big trouble shaping up... battle of the air masses... the ridge in the se seems to want to steepen in longer range

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by oakridgeweather on 2012-02-21, 5:56 pm

Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-21, 6:29 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

My mind is blown!



Watch this one be the storm that actually delivers the goods to the valley.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-21, 6:30 pm

oakridgeweather wrote:Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

Interesting...the 12z euro may support that but most of the guidance that I have seen lately looks like a strong cold front with not much post frontal precip and some NW flow snow showers which dont usually result in accumulating snow in the Knoxville area. This is still a timeframe that could be conducive for accumulating snow but im not really seeing what David Aldrich is at this point.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-22, 11:42 am

That guy must be insane.

Looks like winter is over folks. Thought there would be a second cold shot next week, but that's all but disappeared on the models. Raging positive NAO is not good for late season snow possibilities.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-22, 11:54 am

jmundie wrote:That guy must be insane.

Looks like winter is over folks. Thought there would be a second cold shot next week, but that's all but disappeared on the models. Raging positive NAO is not good for late season snow possibilities.


Dang it, Mundie. You're gonna jinx what shot we have left! So far I have had two...count em...two flakes at my house all year. Seriously, only one dusting that was gone by mid morning.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-22, 12:00 pm

Well - sometimes the best thing is to give up. I gave up in February 08, and we got a nice storm the second week of March.

I was holding out some hope on Monday, but the modeling keeps getting worse and worse. There is plenty of cold air in canada - the coldest air of the globe actually - but its locked up there, and the brief transient cold shots that had been showing up are now turning to storms and no cold.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Toot on 2012-02-22, 2:31 pm

I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-22, 2:35 pm

Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Like this?

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Reb on 2012-02-22, 2:52 pm

wholey balls

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Homemommy on 2012-02-22, 3:17 pm

jmundie wrote:Well - sometimes the best thing is to give up. I gave up in February 08, and we got a nice storm the second week of March.

I was holding out some hope on Monday, but the modeling keeps getting worse and worse. There is plenty of cold air in canada - the coldest air of the globe actually - but its locked up there, and the brief transient cold shots that had been showing up are now turning to storms and no cold.

Can't give up yet! I'm still holding out for my one inch. I even cut my grass super short that way it looks like I got more snow, if it ever does. Glass half full, Mundie. rock on

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-22, 3:45 pm

Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Generally - when I don't see any cold outbreaks in the ensemble members, that's when I lose hope for a two week period. If not even one member shows more than a day of cold, getting snow is going to be incredibly timing based.

Euro does look interesting at 192. A little too far north but still

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-22, 3:49 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Generally - when I don't see any cold outbreaks in the ensemble members, that's when I lose hope for a two week period. If not even one member shows more than a day of cold, getting snow is going to be incredibly timing based.

Euro does look interesting at 192. A little too far north but still

Sorry - between 168 and 192




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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-22, 3:50 pm

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Re: Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

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