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2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

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2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by Toot on 2012-02-24, 7:24 pm

Well...It looks like spring is almost here (even though as I type this there is strong cold advection doing its dirty work outside my window) and its time to try and poke my head into the future to see what spring may hold in terms of severe weather. Ive looked at a few sign and signals and this post will portray if they point to a more normal season which is pretty yikes itself here in the southeast...or if the potential for severe weather is above or below normal.

I was gonna do some analogs for this season but since that didnt work out to well for the winter outlook I will stick to the facts here..nothing but the facts. Very Happy

First lets look at where we are headed in terms of ENSO



What we see here is us headed out of La Nina and into weak El Nino territory most likely... but during spring we should be near neutral ENSO conditions and that will not hamper severe weather in any way that I can find. The important thing here is that we have two major changes going on with winter transitioning into summer and La Nina transitioning into El Nino.


Next we will look at severe weather trends over the first part of 2012 and compare them to the same time last year in 2011

Here we have the spc reports since the first of January this year..as you can see its been pretty active for what is supposed to be a cold time of the year.



When we look back at last years graph we can see that severe weather was almost nil for this time of year before the active timeframe spike occured.


One can draw several different conclusions from that... but the conclusion I am drawing already is that the Gulf of Mexico is very warm and will be primed by the time our "spike" gets here.


Now speaking of the Gulf of Mexico lets look at the water temps because this is the fuel for severe weather in our area.


Sure enough they are above normal. The lack of an extended period of colder weather over the southeast has allowed the waters of the gulf of Mexico to stay pretty warm and this is a pretty important signal that says an above normal severe wx season is likely. Now before you get too worked up there are some things that could possibly argue for a more normal or even below normal severe weather season.

The main thing that comes to mind is that the North Atalntic Oscillation has been mostly positive for many months and one could argue that it should be mostly negative this spring and this could offset an above average season to more of a normal type season. A negative NAO would try to suppress a Jet stream thats trying to come north due to seasonal change and could keep the stormtrack right over us or to our south mostly.

After looking at these and several more features I expect an average to above average severe weather season in terms of reports and there will likely be at least one major and widespread severe weather outbreak in the southeastern United States.

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-24, 10:31 pm

great work toot, i agree with most you say... think the nao stays positive for the better part of spring... most definetly setting up to be a quite active severe season which will have no trouble being above average again this spring.

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-25, 7:10 pm

Toot wrote:Bruce are you high...that post dont belong in this thread slap
lol, no not yet, no seriously man. i screwed up dude... i can delete if you want me to

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-02-25, 7:18 pm

rock on lets just get this 2012 spring severe season started... rock on

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by Toot on 2012-02-25, 7:21 pm

facepalm

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by Homemommy on 2012-03-01, 3:27 pm

Help me settle a bet: Do storms follow water, like rivers or lakes?

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by Toot on 2012-03-01, 11:24 pm

Homemommy wrote:Help me settle a bet: Do storms follow water, like rivers or lakes?

What kind of storms are you talking about? Severe storms or supercells do not follow much of anything that I am aware of. There are many things that goes into steering a mesocale feature (super cell or severe storm)...water can enhance a stormcell and a stormcell will take the path of least resistance.

So naturally around here given the topography a storm will take the path nearest to water because most rivers, lakes and streams that people refer to are in the valley areas (The path of least resistance from topograhical standpoint) in east TN.

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by Homemommy on 2012-03-02, 8:25 am

Toot wrote:
Homemommy wrote:Help me settle a bet: Do storms follow water, like rivers or lakes?

What kind of storms are you talking about? Severe storms or supercells do not follow much of anything that I am aware of. There are many things that goes into steering a mesocale feature (super cell or severe storm)...water can enhance a stormcell and a stormcell will take the path of least resistance.

So naturally around here given the topography a storm will take the path nearest to water because most rivers, lakes and streams that people refer to are in the valley areas (The path of least resistance from topograhical standpoint) in east TN.

Someone said that we get a lot of storms behind me towards blount co, because right behind my house is the french broad and holston, I live where they fork off. I said I didn't think the rivers had anything to do with my area seeing lots of storms.

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Re: 2012 Spring Severe WX Outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-03-02, 10:04 pm

i know everyone has their focus on current system, and rightful so, but just got through reading a big nice article on accuweather... they r saying this severe season will break records... i have been saying this since early winter... rocky time ahead next 3 months folks...

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