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Winter 2012 last Chance

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Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-26, 5:30 am

This is a very long way out but from the signs im seeing in ensemble guidance and teleconnections start to look more wintry than spring during this timeframe. AO/NAO look to be more favorable the second week of March. Of course I dont expect another superstorm but the winter of 92/93 is a perfect match at this point as far has snowfall and teleconnections go. Will we get a nice snow before we warm up completely for spring I'd say the chances are about 50/50 at this point



Last edited by Toot on 2012-03-15, 11:16 pm; edited 9 times in total

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-26, 7:02 am

The 0z ensemble control has a weird looking snowstorm around 288 in TN drool

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-26, 5:47 pm

12z Euro
rock on


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-02-27, 1:28 am

Fairly potent trough in about 10/11 days with snow in the air if the GFS can be believe (and this far out it really has major trust issues).


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-02-27, 8:57 am

Latest Euro shows a hit around hour 174.
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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-27, 10:15 am

this time period has my interest. I'm not confident in it by any means, but the globals have all been back and forth with a second piece of energy diving down through the trough, little reinforcing shot of cold air and possibly some precip.

Canadian





Euro



6z GFS ensembles - you can see it picking up a disturbance





Euro's surface temps are pretty high - so that's obviously going to be the issue if this system even pans out... but 850s are -4 when the precip is falling, the 540 thickness is in alabama, timing would be at night.

Anyway - if we're going to hope for a late season surprise, this timeframe is it before we start talking next winter.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-02-27, 6:59 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : fixed image links)

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-27, 7:00 pm

The GFS and its ensembles has sort of backed off on this...hopefully they are wrong and the foreign models are right


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-28, 6:56 pm

12z Models today are rather meh....A few show some light snow showers but nothing crazy....Except for the CMC...its trying to develop a wave of low pressure on the tail end of the cold front..... Its probably wrong.

Still have to watch this timeframe for potential though...because it is there.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-02-29, 1:21 pm

Toot - CMC is still liking the additional low as well as a serious clipper.

East Tennessee mountains especially could get a double whammy of snow this weekend

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-02-29, 8:26 pm

I'll take it...Hell I'll take anything at this point lmao


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-03-01, 2:10 pm

Last chance?




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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by jmundie on 2012-03-01, 2:14 pm

And just for good measure, it doesn't go anywhere.

euro beyond 6 days has been just as bad as the gfs this year - but wow


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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-01, 3:49 pm

Oh lawwds!!! yikes

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-01, 5:40 pm

Well I am up to a 40 percent chance of snow Sunday night. Maybe it will actually happen and a little will stick.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-01, 9:37 pm

John1122 wrote:Well I am up to a 40 percent chance of snow Sunday night. Maybe it will actually happen and a little will stick.

GFS ensembles all agreeing on a "Saskatchewan Screamer" smoke

Looks like quite a few may see some flakeage in the air and im sure the higher elevations would do decently. The interesting thing is that we have a clipper type storm in March. sneaky

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-02, 12:02 am

Toot wrote:
John1122 wrote:Well I am up to a 40 percent chance of snow Sunday night. Maybe it will actually happen and a little will stick.

GFS ensembles all agreeing on a "Saskatchewan Screamer" smoke

Looks like quite a few may see some flakeage in the air and im sure the higher elevations would do decently. The interesting thing is that we have a clipper type storm in March. sneaky

In quite a few years I've saw nice March clipper type systems that drop 1-4 inches of heavy wet snow.

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-02, 9:23 pm

0z Nam is developing a gulf type low along the tale end of the current cold front wow Some precip makes it into eastern TN in the cold sector.



Well have to watch to see if this is the beginning of a trend....the CMC had suggested this several times the past few days

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by John1122 on 2012-03-03, 4:39 am

JKL moved areas just across the border from me to 60 percent snow Sunday night and says an advisory level event likely.

MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY BEST AMONG THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF.
THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER SW WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 0Z GFS AND TO A LARGE DEGREE THE 0Z ECMWF FAVOR
THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD
THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE NE CWA. THE 03Z SREF WAS A BIT FURTHER
NORTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF. THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH THAT AS THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATE PRECIP SHOULD FALL
ENTIRELY AS SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION AND SFC TEMPS
SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. MODELS PROG PW TO CLIMB TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS
MAY ALSO BE IN PLAY AS WELL. WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR CONTINUITY AND
LARGELY THE 0Z GFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POPS ON SUN NIGHT IN THE
LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE BOARD. LIKELY POPS WERE FAVORED BY THE MAV MOS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHILE THE MET MOS WAS LOWER WITH SUN NIGHT
POPS COMPARED TO THE FORECAST. HPC GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND
OF THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF WITH QPF FOR THE SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT
IN TIME...THE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKE A POTENTIAL SNOW ADVISORY EVENT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL DURING THE NIGHT AND THUS IS
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 9:32 am

Aside from the clipper....the low that forms on the tail end of the cold front could surprise some areas in eastern TN...Models are notorious for underdoing the precip shield from gulf type lows. I could see how some areas could get into some snow as the precip shield runs into the colder air especially the Mtns...temps will be borderline in the valley and we all know how that usually works out. But at any rate northern areas could pick up some light accums from the "Saskatchewan Screamer" and yes I like saying Saskatchewan Screamer hurry

The 0z Local WRF says an advisory may be needed for the mountains




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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 12:30 pm

12z Hi res Nam snowfall accumulations from the screamer




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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Scaley on 2012-03-03, 1:14 pm

Currently sleeting in Alabaster, Al...

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Reb on 2012-03-03, 3:04 pm

mrx updated me to 50% chance of snow tomorrow night wash

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 3:52 pm

Bingo Bango...im starting to feel good about this one for locales north of I-40 in eastern TN


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-040900-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-
MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-
LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...
WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...
LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...
SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...
GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
350 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...BRIEF SHOT OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...

AFTER SOME SPRINGLIKE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE WEEK...
WINTER WEATHER WILL MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR THROUGH NOON MONDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WOULD
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE. A LIGHTER ACCUMULATION IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

THESE POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH PLACES SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IN AN AREA OF BEST
LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS MAY
REFLECT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OR OTHER PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.



Scaley wrote:Currently sleeting in Alabaster, Al...

Hey Scaley...I hope all is well down your way with those rough storms yesterday. yikes

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-03-03, 3:56 pm

Reb wrote:mrx updated me to 50% chance of snow tomorrow night wash

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Re: Winter 2012 last Chance

Post by Toot on 2012-03-03, 4:18 pm

Lol..@ the IDK whatever cat....Also...the GFS and EURO are modeling a cutoff low next weekend or so...it seems to have its on cold air to...well see ive seen alot of these systems produce snow in the first of march...so it wouldnt surprise me!

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